Asri-unix.919
net.space
utcsrgv!utzoo!decvax!ucbvax!ARPAVAX:C70:sri-unix!OTA@S1-A
Sun Mar 7 21:22:29 1982
A nearest neighbor calculation
This is an interesting calculation. I think it is a cop out, however, to
assume that the probability of a very long lived race is zero. It is also
ridiculous to assume a life time as the same as that of a star. Clearly a
race that survives that long could outlive its original solar system.
It seems extremely likely that a few civilizations would have matured
sufficiently to survive forever. It is impossible to evaluate the likelihood
of losing interest in technology, but who knows?
I'm afraid that the problem with these numbers is that V0 is much smaller
than .01. Perhaps 1e-4 to 1e-6 would be more conservative. Still the
inverse cube root dependence means this isn't too important an effect.
We still have the question then: "where is everybody?". I think we're in
a "game preserve".
Ted Anderson
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