Aucbvax.4121
net.columbia
utzoo!decvax!ucbvax!space-enthusiasts
Wed Sep 30 05:14:05 1981
SPACE Digest V1 #204
>From Wed Sep 30 05:06:30 1981
SPACE Digest Volume 1 : Issue 204
Today's Topics:
Re: Intelligent life
Wiping Out the Human Race
As far as I can tell
Intelligent life in D.C. and elsewhere.
Intelligent Life
The indifferent stars
Elucidation of previous message.
where are they all
[Re: SPACE Digest V1 #203 ]
Astrometry
Research on life-support systems for futures space colonies
Re: Intelligent life
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: 29 Sep 1981 0746-CDT
From: CMP.MKSMITH at UTEXAS-20
Subject: Re: Intelligent life
To: POURNE at MIT-MC
cc: SPACE at MIT-MC
In-Reply-To: Your message of 29-Sep-81 0258-CDT
The argument that there must be lots of loose information pinging around
the galaxy if there are 1E6 civilizations isn't obvious. In an information
rich society, like ours is becoming, the airwaves wil be superceded by
cables and optics. I have read estimates of how long a civilization will
use broadcast to communicate but I don't remember them. 100 yrs? 1000? This
clamps the probability of lots of easily accesible galactic eavesdroping
way down. 10 billion (~age of galaxy) / (1E6 X 100) = .1 . Not great odds
since we are not going to be capable of picking up information from
everywhere with equal facility. Of course the idea that we should be
swamped by broadcasts assumes that "they" share our love of random
information as epitomized by the tube. Maybe they entertain themselves
in other ways, impossible as that is to conceive.
Admittedly we have been making our presence known for a while, but we
have no reason the think they would want to talk to us. They will be
truly alien, not just physically. I can't help being leery of arguments
that seem to presuppose that our motives will be theirs.
------------------------------
Date: 29 Sep 1981 0831-PDT
From: DIETZ at USC-ECL
Subject: Wiping Out the Human Race
To: space at MIT-MC
With all this talk of races wiping themselves out, what evidence do
we have that it is even possible? A full scale nuclear war doesn't
even come close to wiping out humanity. I find it hard to conceive
of a disaster that could destroy humanity without also nearly
sterilizing the globe. Intelligence implies incredible adaptibility -
so we are in much better shape than the dinosaurs.
Also, evolution is NOT driven by mutation. In higher organisms, it is
driven by the diversity created during the recombination of genes in
sexual reproduction. In bacteria, resistance to drugs is not caused by
random mutation but rather by picking up a drug resistance gene from
another bacterium or a plasmid (conjugation) or from a bacteriophage.
Granted, the gene originally was produced by random mutations, but this
doesn't have to happen more than once.
------------------------------
Date: 29 Sep 1981 (Tuesday) 1134-EDT
From: DREIFU at WHARTON-10 (Henry Dreifus)
Subject: As far as I can tell
To: space at MIT-MC
I would guess another intelligent race would want to have NO BUSINESS
with our race.
------------------------------
Date: 29 Sep 1981 1045-CDT
From: Clyde Hoover <CC.CLYDE AT UTEXAS-20>
Subject: Intelligent life in D.C. and elsewhere.
To: space at MIT-MC
Proxmire is quite right about there being questions of whether
intelligent life exists in Washington D.C. Proxmire himself raises the
biggest doubts because he is so obviously lacking in any intelligence.
Short-sightedness on the part of our politicians is what has put the
human species on the road to probable suicide, and Sen. Proxmire is
a prime example of this malaise ("The planets will be there for billions
of years, so let's not bother with exploring them any time soon").
It strikes me that the true test of the survivablitiy of a
species is if it can move beyond its' home world and overcome the
ignorant idiots among them.
Did anyone think that maybe THEY are waiting for US to visit?
Consider a semi-non-anthromorphic scale of maturity -- would an interstellar
community WANT to make its existance known to a world where the
inhabitants spend much of their energies devising better ways to
kill each other? (Out of self-protection as much as galactic Darwinism).
If mankind ever amounts to much, it will be in spite of
our pea-brained, short-sighted politicians like Proxmire. Where
**ARE** they? Probably waiting at Proxmia Centauri to see whether to
throw a coming-out party or send in the Vogon Constructor Fleet.
------------------------------
Date: 29 Sep 1981 1054-CDT
From: Jon Webb <CS.WEBB AT UTEXAS-20>
Subject: Intelligent Life
To: Space at MIT-MC
cc: cs.webb at UTEXAS-20
I don't think we know enough to say much about the number of intelligent
civilizations in the universe. The problem is that we have only one
example of such a civilization, indeed only one example of a solar
system capable of supporting any kind of life, so that all our reasoning
has to be done in a vacuum.
There may be 1, 10, 100, 1000, ... intelligent civilizations in this
galaxy or this universe; we simply don't have enough data to say. If we
found evidence of any of these numbers we'd simply fiddle around with
our models to make them fit the data.
Jon
------------------------------
Date: 29 Sep 1981 0946-PDT
From: Bob Amsler <AMSLER AT SRI-AI>
Subject: The indifferent stars
To: space at MIT-MC
One hypothesis I haven't seen mentioned as to why we haven't been visited
is that we may simply be so common a phenomena that it isn't worthwhile
even cataloguing such life developments. Suppose life isn't just possible,
or even just probably, but SUPERABUNDANT. Suppose advanced civilizations
visit their nearby 100 solar systems and discover life forms in some
stage of evolution in virtually every one. Suppose even interbreeding is
possible, plus inter-infectivity from viruses, etc. ("What, another flu
brought home from those interstellar probes!").
The thought is that after a certain amount of this an advanced civilization
might not continue indefinitely exploring the whole universe, but settle
down to do some serious bio-engineering of its own.
It is always very tempting for us to regard ourselves as extra-special in
the scheme of things. Earthnocentrism may be the rule among embryonic
civilizations.
------------------------------
Date: 29 Sep 1981 1244-CDT
From: Clyde Hoover <CC.CLYDE AT UTEXAS-20>
Subject: Elucidation of previous message.
To: space at MIT-MC
Hmm... apparantly some folks missed the reference to the
planet-demolishing race introduced in "The Hitch-Hikers Guide to
the Galaxy". The point is that either man will be welcomed or
destroyed, depending on behavior.
------------------------------
Date: 29 Sep 1981 1403-CDT
From: Kim Korner <CC.KORNER AT UTEXAS-20>
Subject: where are they all
To: space at MIT-MC
Imagine homing in on reruns of "The Beverly Hillbillies" and other
such drivel. Earth is probably infamous throughout the galaxy for the death of
numerous exploratory crews (all suicided). Deathrays of dreck...
-KMK
------------------------------
Date: 29 Sep 1981 1410-EDT
From: PDL at MIT-DMS (P. David Lebling)
To: OTA at SU-AI
In-reply-to: Message of 29 Sep 81 at 0402 PDT by OTA@SU-AI
Subject: [Re: SPACE Digest V1 #203 ]
Message-id: <[MIT-DMS].211471>
Another explanation for why "they" aren't out there is that they are,
but they aren't broadcasting. More and more broadcasting on this
planet is becoming "narrowcasting" via cables, optical fibers, and so
on. As the argument goes, there is really only a narrow time window
within which the Uncle Milties and Lucille Balls are broadcast to the
universe. In our case it is likely to be considerably less than 100
years. Past that window, there would have to be a conscious decision
to broadcast for the edification of lesser civilizations, because
all internal traffic would be narrowcast.
Dave
------------------------------
Date: 29 Sep 1981 1332-PDT
From: DIETZ at USC-ECL
Subject: Astrometry
To: space at MIT-MC
Some years ago some astronomers claimed that they had detected a
large planet around Barnard's star by astrometric techniques (that
is, by measuring the position of the star accurately to detect the
motion caused by the planet). Their results are now generally
attributed to errors in measurement. However, there have been some
technological advances in astrometry that will make the detection
of planets around nearby stars feasible.
Viewed from 10 parsecs, the angular motion of the sun caused by the
earth's motion is about 1 micro arc-second (1 uas). At the same
distance jupiter causes a motion of about 500 uas. To get some idea
how small these angles are, 1 uas is about the angle subtended by an
atom held at arm's length.
On the drawing boards right now are ground based astrometric telescopes
that can achieve an accuracy of 1000 uas per night, or 100 uas per yearly
normal point (average of one years observations). This would easily allow
the detection of jupiter like planets within 30 ly.
The space telescope was not designed for astrometry, but should be able
to achieve 1000 uas. A space based astrometric telescope would be about
40m long (it would be telescoped to fit in the shuttle cargo bay). It
would have an ultimate accuracy of about 1 uas. This would allow the
detection of earth-like planets around nearby stars, and the detection
of jupiter-like planets out to large distances (100's of lys).
------------------------------
Date: 29 Sep 1981 1914-PDT
From: Hans Moravec <HPM SU-AI AT>
Subject: Research on life-support systems for futures space colonies
To: space at MIT-MC
n018 0821 29 Sep 81
BC-SCIENCE-WATCH (UNDATED)
c. 1981 N.Y. Times News Service
In an experiment on possible life-support systems for future space
colonies, a space agency scientist has established what appear to be
totally self-sufficient communities of shrimp, algae and microbes
capable of generating their own food, oxygen and water within the
confines of sealed glass flasks. These laboratory communities have
thrived now for more than 15 months.
The animals and plants in these small ecosystems are the largest
ever to have lived as much as a year in a closed environment,
according to Joe Hanson, an ecologist at the Jet Propulsion
Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.
The world for each of these communities is a one-liter glass flask
that was hermetically sealed (by melting the neck of the flask
closed) when the experiment began last year. Only light, from
fluorescent lamps, and heat may enter or leave through the glass
walls.
Living in three cups of synthetic sea water inside each flask are as
many as 16 small red tropical shrimp less than one inch long,
assorted algae and many varieties of bacteria, viruses and
microscopic animals. In these ecosystems, plants (algae) produce the
oxygen and foods that feed the shrimp and other animal life, and the
animals' wastes provide carbon dioxide and fertilizer consumed by the
algae. Only energy, in the form of light, comes from outside the
system.
How these closed microecosystems, as they are called, could perhaps
be applied to developing larger and more complex ecosystems to
support human colonies in space will be explored at a National
Aeronautics and Space Administration workshop to be held at the Jet
Propulsion Laboratory next January.
------------------------------
Date: 30 September 1981 01:29-EDT
From: Jerry E. Pournelle <POURNE MIT-MC AT>
Subject: Re: Intelligent life
To: CMP.MKSMITH at UTEXAS-20
cc: POURNE at MIT-MC, SPACE at MIT-MC
You are undoubtedly correct, of course.
------------------------------
End of SPACE Digest
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