Aucbvax.1582
fa.arms-d
utzoo!duke!decvax!ucbvax!REM@MIT-MC
Tue Jun 9 21:18:44 1981
Re: Nuclear war
Date: 8 Jun 1981 1121-CDT
From: Jon Webb <CS.WEBB AT UTEXAS-20>
Idea about dropping things in the way of ICBMs isn't a very good one.
Who will put up the oribiting satellites?
It doesn't matter who puts them up, but whoever with the best micro-computers
and A.I. software would be best, USA and/or Japan presently I guess.
If it is an aggressive nation
you can't be sure they won't design them so there own missiles can get
by. No non-aggressive nations have the technology to do this.
We'd have to have total inspection. Programs would be in non-changeable
ROM, burned-in at the factory and inspected by an international team
before launch. After launch, we could spot-check them by sending up
inspectors via shuttle or Saluz, like pick one out of a 25 at
random to verify they didn't get their programs changed during launch
procedure.
Also, it dosen't seem like that would be too reliable, and all it
takes is 1 missile to get by to cause major damage. All the aggressive
nations have to do is to build many more missiles, send them on
different flight paths, etc.
I don't see any way to eliminate the threat of nuclear war presently, but
at least we'd give the first-striker a great disadvantage, his ICBMs would
nullify the defense satellites, perhaps one or two ICBMs getting thru,
destroying a few military installations and one or two cities, while
the retaliatory strike, if delayed an hour or so until satellites are
used up, would get thru relatively unchecked. Thus whoever strikes
first gets destroyed without destroying the one who got attacked first.
I guess there is nothing really we can do to stop nuclear war. I think
the odds are about 3 to 1 against our making it to the end of this
century without one.
With odds like that we should all quit our jobs and work together to
prevent nuclear war. After nuclear war, all our work we've done will
be lost.
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