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                |                                     |
                 \     MEGAMAN BATTLE NETWORK 3      /
                 /          BATTLE MATH FAQ          \
                |                                     |
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| I. Table of Contents         {
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I. Table of Contents
II. Preface
III. Terminology
IV. NaviCust Setups
      i. Introduction
      ii. Three Chip Draw
      iii. Four Chip Draw
      iv. Five Chip Draw
      v. Six Chip Draw
      vi. Seven Chip Draw
      vii. Eight Chip Draw
      viii. Nine Chip Draw
      ix. Ten Chip Draw
V. The Math
      i. The Setup (as it concerns FastGauge vs. FullCust)
      ii. Chip Draw Statistics
           a. Three Chip Draw
           b. Four Chip Draw
           c. Five Chip Draw
           d. Six Chip Draw
           e. Seven Chip Draw
           f. Eight Chip Draw
           g. Nine Chip Draw
           h. Ten Chip Draw
      iii. Four Chip Set
           a. Three Chip Draw
           b. Four Chip Draw
           c. Five Chip Draw
           d. Six Chip Draw
           e. Seven Chip Draw
           f. Eight Chip Draw
           g. Nine Chip Draw
           h. Ten Chip Draw
      iv. Three Chip Set
           a. Three Chip Draw
           b. Four Chip Draw
           c. Five Chip Draw
           d. Six Chip Draw
           e. Seven Chip Draw
           f. Eight Chip Draw
           g. Nine Chip Draw
           h. Ten Chip Draw
      v. Two Chip Set
           a. Three Chip Draw
           b. Four Chip Draw
           c. Five Chip Draw
           d. Six Chip Draw
           e. Seven Chip Draw
           f. Eight Chip Draw
           g. Nine Chip Draw
           h. Ten Chip Draw
      vi. One Chip Set
           a. Three Chip Draw
           b. Four Chip Draw
           c. Five Chip Draw
           d. Six Chip Draw
           e. Seven Chip Draw
           f. Eight Chip Draw
           g. Nine Chip Draw
           h. Ten Chip Draw
      vii. Special Sets
           a. EvilCut/BodyGard/PoisPhar
           b. DeuxHero/2xHero
           c. GutShoot
           d. Zeta-PAs
           e. PrixPowr
           f. ElemSwrd
           g. MomQuake
           h. BigHeart
           i. MstrStyl
VI. Atk+ Chips
VII. The ADD Function
VIII. What about FolderBak?
IX. Sweet Spotting
X. Statistical Analysis
      i. Raw Numbers
      ii. Analysis
XI. Contact Information
XII. Credits


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| II. Preface                  {
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Well, I decided to write this FAQ because I wanted to know whether FastGauge or
FullCustom was better head to head. As I suspected, it was a matter of
preference. Still, while doing the math for the head-to-head matchup, I came
into contact with a lot of other interesting information on game mechanics.
The probabilties of pulling combos and program advances. The odds of getting a
chip in a given situation. Information on chip flow. Overall, it has made me a
much better player. No longer do I have to rely on my gut instinct to know what
to do with a folder, I can actually know the numbers behind it. Doing so also
allows me to pick up new folders faster and optimizes my playing style.

>>IF YOU ONLY READ ONE SECTION, MAKE IT STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

In the Statistical Analysis section, I'll lay out what the 40kb of math means
in simple terms. Reading those few paragraphs should greatly improve your game.
If you're concerned with any specifics beyond this, go into the Special Sets
section or whatever else may interest you. The rest of this FAQ is for whoever
is interested in the actual math.


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| III. Terminology             {
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Draw - How many chips you see on the custom screen.

Set - How many of each chip in a folder you have.

Sweet Spotting - The number of chips at which you have a 70%+ chance of drawing
    a given combo (see section IX for more).


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| IV. NaviCust Setups          {
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i. Introduction

This section details some of the best setups for each chip draw, from three
through ten. If you want to learn more about NaviCust and possible setups
check the zidanet129's Navi Customizer Guide or the NetBattle Strategy Guide.

If you're wondering how you can possibly get a three chip draw, it's quite
simple. There are several EXCodes that, while giving you a bonus, also take
away from your Custom Screen draw. Here they are:

Code        Function           Glitch
AWE3ETSW    HP +400            Custom -1
3MZNBXH1    HP +450            Custom -1
2YTIWOAM    HP +500            Custom -1
O3IUTNWQ    HP +550            Custom -1
SKDSHUEO    Break Charge       Custom -1
3DIVNEIQ    Mega Folder2       Custom -1
SK13EO1M    Reflect            Custom -1
L3KJGUEO    Kiwarimi Magic     Custom -1
ZN3UDOIQ    AirShoes           Custom -1
ZMJ1IGIE    HP +600            Custom -2
SRUEIT3A    HP +650            Custom -2
SI1IEMGO    Break Buster       Custom -2
XBCJF2RI    FstGauge           Custom -2

Also, using DarkLiscence automatically gives you Custom -1.

Obviously you can go ahead and use Custom style to boost a six to a seven or
an eight to a nine, but I'm not going to repeat set-ups in different sections
to do so. If you're reading this you should be smart enough to figure that
out anyhow. Also, I'm not going to go into the Custom glitch here for two
reasons. It's irrelevant, and it's cheap.

Here's a legend for each NaviCust Setup:

1 - Custom1
2 - Custom2
H - HubBatch
S - SetGreen/SetIce
B - BugStopper
F - FastGauge
_ - Charge+1/Rapid+1/Empty/Whatever you can fit
U - Rush
M - BusterMax
P - HP+200
R - Reflect
T - UnderSht
G - Tango

These setups are by no means the best of their kind. They're just examples to
give you a general idea of how something how or might look. For more
information on NaviCust setups, check out the NetBattle Strategy Guide and the
Renowned Folder FAQ.


ii. Three Chip Draw

[_][_][P][P][P]
[R][R][R][P][P]
[T][T][R][_][U]
[P][P][R][_][_]
[P][P][P][_][_]
Style: Any Non-Custom
EXCode: SRUEIT3A (HP +650)


iii. Four Chip Draw

[_][_][B][B][B]
[_][R][R][R][B]
[H][U][H][R][B]
[H][H][H][R][B]
[H][H][H][_][_]
Style: Any Non-Custom
EXCode:  XBCJF2RI (FastGauge)


iv. Five Chip Draw

[B][B][B][E][E]
[B][_][_][_][E]
[B][H][H][H][E]
[B][H][H][E][E]
[_][H][H][H][_]
Style: Any
EXCode: Any


v. Six Chip Draw

[_][B][B][B][B]
[_][_][_][_][B]
[H][H][H][M][B]
[H][H][M][M][M]
[H][H][H][M][_]
Style: Any
EXCode: Any


vi. Seven Chip Draw

[_][B][B][B][B]
[_][_][_][_][B]
[H][U][H][1][B]
[H][H][H][1][_]
[H][H][H][1][1]
Style: Any
EXCode: Any


vii. Eight Chip Draw

[_][H][H][H][_]
[_][H][H][G][G]
[2][H][H][H][G]
[2][2][_][_][G]
[2][2][2][G][G]
Style: Any
EXCode: Any

viii. Nine Chip Draw

[_][2][2][2][F]
[_][_][2][2][F]
[H][U][H][2][F]
[H][H][H][_][F]
[H][H][H][F][F]
Style: Any
EXCode: Error Code for Custom2


ix. Ten Chip Draw

[C][2][2][2][F]
[C][C][2][2][F]
[2][S][S][2][F]
[2][2][S][S][F]
[2][2][2][F][F]
Style: Custom
EXCode: JHGIUTOP/ALSK3W2R (Error Code for SetGreen/Ice)


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| V. The Math                  {
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i. The Setup

Since getting the chip you need is far too easy and impractical to calculate,
we’ll assume, for all intensive purposes, that you’re looking for a three-part
program advance or combo. Since it’s difficult to get confused and has easily
definable parts, we’ll work with HyperRat.

Firstly, a few things need to be established:

Any given chip is 1/30, or 3.33% of the folder.

If you’ve got a set of four: 4/30 = 13.33%

A set of three: 3/30 = 10.00%%

A set of two: 2/30 = 6.67%

This is important, and you’ll see why. The way the math works is that you take
the odds of drawing the chip as your first chip, then the odds of getting it as
your second chip, then the odds of it as your third, et cetera. Here are the
premises we’re working with in all of the following:

1. You have a preset chip.
2. That chip is either FastGauge or FullCustom
3. For the purposes of argument, we’re assuming that when we use FullCust,
  FastGauge is not in the folder.
4. We’re assuming that when FullCustom is preset, FastGauge is not in the
  folder.


\\The formula to be used is as follows:

The Odds of Getting a Ratton1 x The Odds of Getting a Ratton2 x The Odds of
Getting a Ratton3

Ratton1: 100% - [the odds of not getting it as your first chip x the odds of
not getting it as your second chip x the odds of not getting it as your third
chip, and so on for the number of chips in your custom screen]

Ratton2: 100% - [the odds of not getting it as your second chip x the odds of
not getting it as your third chip, and so on for the number of chips in your
custom screen]

Ratton3:  100% - [the odds of not getting it as your third chip x the odds of
not getting it as your fourth chip, and so on for the number of chips in your
custom screen]

*Where the odds of getting a given chip are:(the number of chips of that type
in your folder)/{Number of chips in folder - [the number of chips in your
custom screen (the first would be 29, second 28, etc.) – 1 (for the preset
chip)]}


ii. Chip Draw Statistics

See this chart to see how many chips each of the following selections will see:

a. Three Chip Draw

Seconds   FullCust   FastGauge
  0         2          2
  1         5          2
  4         5          5
  8         8          8
  12        8          11
  16        11         14
  20        11         17
  24        14         20
  28        14         24
  32        17         27

* - The FullCust Change to turn two actually occurs within a tenth of a second,
but it change is more notable on the graph when placed at one second.

** - The graph starts at seven because I'm not counting the preset chip. The
graph should cap at 30 but when it hits 29 I'm posting 30 to symbolize that all
the chips had been seen.

Or see the following graph:

http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-ThreeChipDraw.JPG

-The blue line is the FullCust line
-The pink line is the FastGauge line

Playing with three chips is essentially useless you're intentionally inhibitng
yourself for one reason or another (as a challenge). You're never going to get
a program advance, especially if you're only dumping one chip a turn, not all
three. With so few chips, you're much better off using FastGauge.


b. Four Chip Draw

Seconds   FullCust   FastGauge
  0         3          3
  1         7          3
  4         7          7
  8         11         11
  12        11         15
  16        15         19
  20        15         23
  24        19         27
  28        19         30
  32        23         30

Or see the following graph:

http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-FourChipDraw.JPG

-The blue line is the FullCust line
-The pink line is the FastGauge line

Again, with such a low chip count you're better off with Fast Gauge. The chips
match up at seven in the second round, so it's much more beneficial to stick
with FastGauge.


c. Five Chip Draw

Seconds   FullCust   FastGauge
  0         4          4
  1         9          4
  4         9          9
  8         14         14
  12        14         19
  16        19         24
  20        19         30
  24        24         30
  28        24         30
  32        30         30

Or see the following graph:

http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-FiveChipDraw.JPG

-The blue line is the FullCust line
-The pink line is the FastGauge line

With a five chip set the odds of getting a three chip combo are still dismally
low, so you're still better off with FastGauge.


d. Six Chip Draw

Seconds   FullCust   FastGauge
  0         5          5
  1         11         5
  4         11         11
  8         16         16
  12        16         21
  16        21         26
  20        21         30
  24        26         30
  28        26         30
  32        30         30

Or see the following graph:

http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-SixChipDraw.JPG

-The blue line is the FullCust line
-The pink line is the FastGauge line

Here the chips match up at seventeen, and the same general trends are seen.
This setup is much more powerful than the previous because it sweetspots once
you FullCust. Here the advantage of FullCust over FastGauge become much more
obvious for three chip combo folders.


e. Seven Chip Draw

Seconds   FullCust   FastGauge
  0         6          6
  1         11         6
  4         11         11
  8         16         16
  12        16         21
  16        21         26
  20        21         30
  24        26         30
  28        26         30
  32        30         30

Or see the following graph:

http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-SevenChipDraw.JPG

-The blue line is the FullCust line
-The pink line is the FastGauge line

A few trends appear when we look at the graph. The FastGauge line piques more
quickly but the FastGauge brings you a more steady flow of chips. Note that the
number of chips you’ve seen with each matches up at 16 chips, or just over
half the folder.

The thing that has to be considered is that at a certain point you should have
your three-part program advance. At a certain point you have hit a “sweet spot”
in which you’re almost guaranteed to have it. This happens to be at twelve
chips. With the seven chip set you’re left at a 66% (or two thirds) chance to
have that after using FullCustom. A folder actually “sweet spots” a three part
combo at 72% (twelve chips). This set can’t achieve that until turn three. More
on sweet spotting in section IX.


f. Eight Chip Draw

Seconds   FullCust   FastGauge
  0         7          7
  1         12         7
  4         12         12
  8         17         17
  12        17         22
  16        22         27
  20        22         30
  24        27         30
  28        27         30
  32        30         30

Or see the following graph:

http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-EightChipDraw.JPG

-The blue line is the FullCust line
-The pink line is the FastGauge line

Here the chips match up at seventeen, and the same general trends are seen.
This setup is much more powerful than the previous because it sweetspots once
you FullCust. Here the advantage of FullCust over FastGauge become much more
obvious for three chip combo folders.


g. Nine Chip Draw

Seconds    FullCust   FastGauge
  0          8          8
  1          13         8
  4          13         13
  8          18         18
  12         18         23
  16         23         28
  20         23         30
  24         28         30
  28         28         30
  32         30         30

Or see the following graph:

http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-NineChipDraw.JPG

-The blue line is the FullCust line
-The pink line is the FastGauge line

This setup hits the sweet spot for four chip program advances after a first
round FullCustom, and matches up with FastGauge at 18 chips.


h. Ten Chip Draw

Seconds    FullCust   FastGauge
  0          9          9
  1          14         9
  4          14         14
  8          19         19
  12         19         24
  16         24         30
  20         24         30
  24         30         30
  28         30         30
  32         30         30

Or see the following graph:

http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-TenChipDraw.JPG

-The blue line is the FullCust line
-The pink line is the FastGauge line

Playing with the full ten chips provides a distinct advantage, as you see all
of your chips a full turn earlier (note that 29 actually equates to 30, since
we’re not accounting for the preset chip).


iii. Four Chip Set

\\A four chip set means that you have four of each part of the program advance
 or combo that you're waiting for.

Here's the numbers for a four chip draw so that I don't have to repeat them in
every section:

Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge)
Chance chip two is not a Ratton1: 25/29
Chance chip three is not a Ratton1: 24/28
Chance chip four is not a Ratton1: 23/27
Chance chip five is not a Ratton1: 22/26
Chance chip six is not a Ratton1: 21/25
Chance chip seven is not a Ratton1: 20/24
Chance chip eight is not a Ratton1: 19/23
Chance chip nine is not a Ratton1: 18/22
Chance chip ten is not a Ratton1: 17/21

Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge)
Chip two is a Ratton1
Chance chip three is not a Ratton2: 24/28
Chance chip four is not a Ratton2: 23/27
Chance chip five is not a Ratton2: 22/26
Chance chip six is not a Ratton2: 21/25
Chance chip seven is not a Ratton2: 20/24
Chance chip eight is not a Ratton2: 19/23
Chance chip nine is not a Ratton2: 18/22
Chance chip ten is not a Ratton2: 17/21

Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge)
Chip two is a Ratton1
Chip three is a Ratton2
Chance chip four is not a Ratton3: 23/27
Chance chip five is not a Ratton3: 22/26
Chance chip six is not a Ratton3: 21/25
Chance chip seven is not a Ratton3: 20/24
Chance chip eight is not a Ratton3: 19/23
Chance chip nine is not a Ratton3: 18/22
Chance chip ten is not a Ratton3: 17/21

a. Three Chip Draw
1 – [(25 * 24)/(29 * 28)]
1 – [600/812]
1 – [.7389]
2610
Chance of getting any given part: 26.10%

Since the number of chips drawn is the same, if you look at it, the math
figures out evenly for every chip, since the overlapping chips cancel out. Do
the math for yourself if you want to see, but I’m not going to be bothered to
do so here.

2610^3 = .0177
Chance of getting the combo: 1.77%

Note that it's impossible to get the entire program advance in the opening draw
with a preset chip, but these are the odds you'd get it without one.


b. Four Chip Draw
1 – [(25 * 24 * 23)/(29 * 28 * 27)]
1 – [13800/21924]
1 – [.6294]
3705
Chance of getting any given part: 37.05%
3705^3 = .0508
Chance of getting the combo: 5.08%


c. Five Chip Draw
1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)]
1 – [303600/570024]
1 – [.5326]
4673
Chance of getting any given part: 46.73%
4673^3 = .1021
Chance of getting the combo: 10.21%


d. Six Chip Draw
1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25)]
1 – [(24 * 23 * 22 * 21)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)]
1 – [255024/570024]
1 – [.4473]
5526
Chance of getting any given part: 55.26%
5526^3 = .1687
Chance of getting the combo: 16.87%


e. Seven Chip Draw
1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24)]
1 – [(23 * 22 * 21 * 20)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)]
1 – [212520/570024]
1 – [.3728]
6271
Chance of getting any given part: 62.71%
6271^3 = .2466
Chance of getting the combo: 24.66%


f. Eight Chip Draw
1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23)]
1 – [(22 * 21 * 20 * 19)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)]
1 – [175560/570024]
1 – [.3079]
6920
Chance of getting any given part: 69.20%
6920^3 = .3313
Chance of getting the combo: 33.13%

g. Nine Chip Draw
1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 *
23 * 22)]
1 – [(21 * 20 * 19 * 18)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)]
1 – [143640/570024]
1 – [.2519]
7480
Chance of getting any given part: 74.80%
7480^3 = .4185
Chance of getting the combo: 41.85%


h. Ten Chip Draw
1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24
* 23 * 22 * 21)]
1 – [(20 * 19 * 18 * 17)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)]
1 – [116280/570024]
1 – [.2039]
7960
Chance of getting any given part: 79.60%
7960^3 = .5043
Chance of getting the combo: 50.43%


iv. Three Chip Set

Here's the numbers for a three chip draw so that I don't have to repeat them in
every section:

Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge)
Chance chip two is not a Ratton1: 26/29
Chance chip three is not a Ratton1: 25/28
Chance chip four is not a Ratton1: 24/27
Chance chip five is not a Ratton1: 23/26
Chance chip six is not a Ratton1: 22/25
Chance chip seven is not a Ratton1: 21/24
Chance chip eight is not a Ratton1: 20/23
Chance chip nine is not a Ratton1: 19/22
Chance chip ten is not a Ratton1: 18/21

Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge)
Chip two is a Ratton1
Chance chip three is not a Ratton2: 25/28
Chance chip four is not a Ratton2: 24/27
Chance chip five is not a Ratton2: 23/26
Chance chip six is not a Ratton2: 22/25
Chance chip seven is not a Ratton2: 21/24
Chance chip eight is not a Ratton2: 20/23
Chance chip nine is not a Ratton2: 19/22
Chance chip ten is not a Ratton2: 18/21

Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge)
Chip two is a Ratton1
Chip three is a Ratton2
Chance chip four is not a Ratton3: 24/27
Chance chip five is not a Ratton3: 23/26
Chance chip six is not a Ratton3: 22/25
Chance chip seven is not a Ratton3: 21/24
Chance chip eight is not a Ratton3: 20/23
Chance chip nine is not a Ratton3: 19/22
Chance chip ten is not a Ratton3: 18/21

a. Three Chip Draw
1 – [(26 * 25)/(29 * 28)]
1 – [650/812]
1 – [.8004]
1995
Chance of getting any given part: 19.95%
1995^3 = .0079
Chance of getting the combo: 0.79%

Note that it's impossible to get the entire program advance in the opening draw
with a preset chip, but these are the odds you'd get it without one.


b. Four Chip Draw
1 – [(26 * 25 * 24)/(29 * 28 * 27)]
1 – [15600/21924]
1 – [.7115]
2884
Chance of getting any given part: 28.84%
2884^3 = .0240
Chance of getting the combo: 2.40%


c. Five Chip Draw
1 – [(26 * 25 * 24 * 23)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)]
1 – [(25 * 24 * 23)/(29 * 28 * 27)]
1 – [13800/21924]
1 – [.6294]
3705
Chance of getting any given part: 37.05%
3705^3 = .0508
Chance of getting the combo: 5.08%


d. Six Chip Draw
1 – [(26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25)]
1 – [(24 * 23 * 22)/(29 * 28 * 27)]
1 – [12144/21924]
1 – [.5539]
4460
Chance of getting any given part: 44.60%
4460^3 = .0887
Chance of getting the combo: 8.87%


e. Seven Chip Draw
1 – [(26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24)]
1 – [(23 * 22 * 21)/(29 * 28 * 27)]
1 – [10626/21924]
1 – [.4846]
5153
Chance of getting any given part: 51.53%
5153^3 = .1368
Chance of getting the combo: 13.68%


f. Eight Chip Draw
1 – [(26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23)]
1 – [(22 * 21 * 20)/(29 * 28 * 27)]
1 – [9240/21924]
1 – [.4214]
5785
Chance of getting any given part: 57.85%
5785^3 = .1936
Chance of getting the combo: 19.36%


g. Nine Chip Draw
1 – [(26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 *
23 * 22)]
1 – [(21 * 20 * 19)/(29 * 28 * 27)]
1 – [7980/21924]
1 – [.3639]
6360
Chance of getting any given part: 63.60%
6360^3 = .3256
Chance of getting the combo: 25.72%


h. Ten Chip Draw
1 – [(26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 *
24 * 23 * 22 * 21)]
1 – [(20 * 19 * 18)/(29 * 28 * 27)]
1 – [6840/21924]
1 – [.3118]
6880
Chance of getting any given part: 68.80%
6880^3 = .3256
Chance of getting the combo: 32.56%


v. Two Chip Set

The Two Chip Set numbers:

Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge)
Chance chip two is not a Ratton1: 27/29
Chance chip three is not a Ratton1: 26/28
Chance chip four is not a Ratton1: 25/27
Chance chip five is not a Ratton1: 24/26
Chance chip six is not a Ratton1: 23/25
Chance chip seven is not a Ratton1: 22/24
Chance chip eight is not a Ratton1: 21/23
Chance chip nine is not a Ratton1: 20/22
Chance chip ten is not a Ratton1: 19/21

Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge)
Chip two is a Ratton1
Chance chip three is not a Ratton2: 26/28
Chance chip four is not a Ratton2: 25/27
Chance chip five is not a Ratton2: 24/26
Chance chip six is not a Ratton2: 23/25
Chance chip seven is not a Ratton2: 22/24
Chance chip eight is not a Ratton2: 21/23
Chance chip nine is not a Ratton2: 20/22
Chance chip ten is not a Ratton2: 19/21

Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge)
Chip two is a Ratton1
Chip three is a Ratton2
Chance chip four is not a Ratton3: 25/27
Chance chip five is not a Ratton3: 24/26
Chance chip six is not a Ratton3: 23/25
Chance chip seven is not a Ratton3: 22/24
Chance chip eight is not a Ratton3: 21/23
Chance chip nine is not a Ratton3: 20/22
Chance chip ten is not a Ratton3: 19/21

a. Three Chip Draw
1 – [(27 * 26)/(29 * 28)]
1 – [702/812]
1 – [.8645]
1354
Chance of getting any given part: 13.54%
1354^3 = .0024
Chance of getting the combo: 0.24%

Note that it's impossible to get the entire program advance in the opening draw
with a preset chip, but these are the odds you'd get it without one.


b. Four Chip Draw
1 – [(27 * 26 * 25)/(29 * 28 * 27)]
1 – [(26 * 25)/(29 * 28)]
1 – [650/812]
1 – [.8004]
1995
Chance of getting any given part: 19.95%
1995^3 = .0079
Chance of getting the combo: 0.79%


c. Five Chip Draw
1 – [(27 * 26 * 25 * 24)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)]
1 – [(25 * 24)/(29 * 28)]
1 – [600/812]
1 – [.7389]
2610
Chance of getting any given part: 26.10%
2610^3 = .0177
Chance of getting the combo: 1.77%


d. Six Chip Draw
1 – [(27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25)]
1 – [(24 * 23)/(29 * 28)]
1 – [552/812]
1 – [.6798]
3201
Chance of getting any given part: 32.01%
3201^3 = .0328
Chance of getting the combo: 3.28%


e. Seven Chip Draw
1 – [(27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24)]
1 – [(23 * 22)/(29 * 28)]
1 – [506/812]
1 – [.6231]
3768
Chance of getting any given part: 37.68%
3768^3 = .0535
Chance of getting the combo: 5.35%


f. Eight Chip Draw
1 – [(27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23)]
1 – [(22 * 21)/(29 * 28)]
1 – [462/812]
1 – [.5689]
4310
Chance of getting any given part: 43.10%
4310^3 = .0800
Chance of getting the combo: 8.00%


g. Nine Chip Draw
1 – [(27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 *
23 * 22)]
1 – [(21 * 20)/(29 * 28)]
1 – [420/812]
1 – [.5712]
4827
Chance of getting any given part: 48.27%
4827^3 = .1125
Chance of getting the combo: 11.25%


h. Ten Chip Draw
1 – [(27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 *
24 * 23 * 22 * 21)]
1 – [(20 * 19)/(29 * 28)]
1 – [380/812]
1 – [.4679]
5320
Chance of getting any given part: 53.20%
5320^3 = .1505
Chance of getting the combo: 15.05%


vi. One Chip Set

The One Chip Set numbers:

Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge)
Chance chip two is not a Ratton1: 28/29
Chance chip three is not a Ratton1: 27/28
Chance chip four is not a Ratton1: 26/27
Chance chip five is not a Ratton1: 25/26
Chance chip six is not a Ratton1: 24/25
Chance chip seven is not a Ratton1: 23/24
Chance chip eight is not a Ratton1: 22/23
Chance chip nine is not a Ratton1: 21/22
Chance chip ten is not a Ratton1: 20/21

Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge)
Chip two is a Ratton1
Chance chip three is not a Ratton2: 27/28
Chance chip four is not a Ratton2: 26/27
Chance chip five is not a Ratton2: 25/26
Chance chip six is not a Ratton2: 24/25
Chance chip seven is not a Ratton2: 23/24
Chance chip eight is not a Ratton2: 22/23
Chance chip nine is not a Ratton2: 21/22
Chance chip ten is not a Ratton2: 20/21

Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge)
Chip two is a Ratton1
Chip three is a Ratton2
Chance chip four is not a Ratton3: 26/27
Chance chip five is not a Ratton3: 25/26
Chance chip six is not a Ratton3: 24/25
Chance chip seven is not a Ratton3: 23/24
Chance chip eight is not a Ratton3: 22/23
Chance chip nine is not a Ratton3: 21/22
Chance chip ten is not a Ratton3: 20/21

a. Three Chip Draw
1 – [(27)/(29)]
1 – [.9310]
0689
Chance of getting any given part: 6.89%
1354^3 = .0003
Chance of getting the combo: 0.03%

Note that it's impossible to get the entire program advance in the opening draw
with a preset chip, but these are the odds you'd get it without one.


b. Four Chip Draw
1 – [(28 * 27 * 26)/(29 * 28 * 27)]
1 – [(26)/(29)]
1 – [.8965]
1034
Chance of getting any given part: 10.34%
1034^3 = .0011
Chance of getting the combo: 0.11%


c. Five Chip Draw
1 – [(28 * 27 * 26 * 25)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)]
1 – [(25)/(29)]
1 – [.8620]
1379
Chance of getting any given part: 13.79%
1379^3 = .0026
Chance of getting the combo: 0.26%


d. Six Chip Draw
1 – [(28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25)]
1 – [(24)/(29)]
1 – [.8275]
1724
Chance of getting any given part: 17.24%
1724^3 = .0051
Chance of getting the combo: 0.51%


e. Seven Chip Draw
1 – [(28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24)]
1 – [(23)/(29)]
1 – [.7931]
2068
Chance of getting any given part: 20.68%
2068^3 = .0088
Chance of getting the combo: 0.88%


f. Eight Chip Draw
1 – [(28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23)]
1 – [(22)/(29)]
1 – [.7586]
2413
Chance of getting any given part: 24.13%
2413^3 = .0140
Chance of getting the combo: 1.40%


g. Nine Chip Draw
1 – [(28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 *
23 * 22)]
1 – [(21)/(29)]
1 – [.7241]
2758
Chance of getting any given part: 27.58%
2758^3 = .0209
Chance of getting the combo: 2.09%


h. Ten Chip Draw
1 – [(28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 *
24 * 23 * 22 * 21)]
1 – [(20)/(29)]
1 – [.6896]
3103
Chance of getting any given part: 31.03%
3103^3 = .0298
Chance of getting the combo: 2.98%


vii. Special Sets

Special Sets are groups of Program advances where you don't have three of a
chip in simple sequence (such as BubSpread, LifeSword, and HeatSpread). In this
section, Set# means a set of that many chips in a folder, so that the math is
more readily understandable. Also, "odds" should be understood as "the odds of
getting."

Don't expect as much math in this section, as I can simply pull the numbers
from the earlier sections to support this. Also, I'm operating under the
assumption that you're working with the most possible parts of any given
Program Advance in this section. On a final note, I'll only be doing this for
chip draws of five and greater, as the earlier sections demonstrate that
anyhting else is absolutely impractical.

a. EvilCut/BodyGard/PoisPhar

PoisonPharoh: PoisonMask A + PoisonFace A + Anubis A
EvilCut: StepSwrd P + HeroSword P + StepCross P
BodyGuard: AntiDamage M + AntiNavi M + Muramasa M

The Equation: Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set1

For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .1379 = .0301 (3.01%)
For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .1724 = .0526 (5.26%)
For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .2068 = .0813 (8.13%)
For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .2413 = .1155 (11.55%)
For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .2758 = .1543 (15.43%)
For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .3103 = .1966 (19.66%)


b. DeuxHero/2xHero

DeuxHero: CustomSword B + VariableSword B + ProtoMan(any version) B
2xHero: Slasher B + CustomSword B + VariableSword B + ProtoMan(any version) B

In this section I'll detail the odds of getting the program advance with five
versions of ProtoMan and how many slashers you should have in your folder for
it to run smoothly. If you want to know how the odds are with only four
versions of ProtoMan, the math is identical to the ElemSwrd Section.

The odds of a set of five are as follows...

For a five chip draw: 55.26%
For a six chip draw: 64.20%
For a seven chip draw: 71.66%
For an eight chip draw: 77.82%
For a nine chip draw: 82.86%
For a ten chip draw: 86.94%

The Equation(1): Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set5

For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .5526 = .1206 (12.06%)
For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .6420 = .1960 (19.60%)
For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .7166 = .2818 (28.18%)
For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .7782 = .3726 (37.26%)
For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .8286 = .4636 (46.36%)
For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .8694 = .5508 (55.08%)

The Equation(2): Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set 5

For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .4673 x .5526 = .0563 (5.63%)
For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .5526 x .6420 = .1083 (10.83%)
For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .6271 x .7166 = .1767 (17.67%)
For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .6920 x .7782 = .2578 (25.78%)
For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .7480 x .8286 = .3467 (34.67%)
For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .7960 x .8694 = .4384 (43.84%)

If you want to use Slashers in a folder with DeuxHero to make 2xHero, I
actually recommend not using a full set of four. Usually, in a NetBattle, the
900 damage from a 2xHero will not knock off an opponent but that of a 2xHero
is sure to. It's not safe hedging your bets on just DeuxHero because two aren't
assured to knock off your opponent, especially against a folder with some
defense. While the specific parts of the combo are powerful and may make up for
this, adding slashers does not normally help your case in that respect.
I suggest playing with only two or three Slashers. That way, they won't clutter
your custom draw when you need to spend a turn setting up defenses or waiting
for the combo, and you can have other chips that are more useful as individual
chips go. Also, that way you won't feel guilty waiting for NOT waiting for a
Slasher, but if you need one it should turn up.


c. GutShoot

GutsShoot: Guard * + DashAttack G/* + GutsMan (any version)

The odds of getting this Program Advance with only four GutsMan chips is
identical to any three part program advance. See section ii or whatever other
section may apply.

The Equation: Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set5

For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .5526 = .1206 (12.06%)
For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .6420 = .1960 (19.60%)
For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .7166 = .2818 (28.18%)
For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .7782 = .3726 (37.26%)
For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .8286 = .4636 (46.36%)
For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .8694 = .5508 (55.08%)


d. Zeta-PAs

Z-Cannon1:  Cannon A + Cannon B + Cannon C
           Cannon B + Cannon C + Cannon D
           Cannon C + Cannon D + Cannon E
Z-Cannon2:  HiCannon H + HiCannon J + HiCannon L
           HiCannon J + HiCannon L + HiCannon K
           HiCannon J + HiCannon K + HiCannon L
Z-Cannon3:  M-Cannon O + M-Cannon P + M-Cannon Q
           M-Cannon P + M-Cannon Q + M-Cannon R
           M-Cannon Q + M-Cannon R + M-Cannon S
Z-Punch:    GutsPunch B + GutsPunch C + GutsPunch D
           GutsPunch C + GutsPunch D + GutsPunch E
           GutsPunch D + GutsPunch E + GutsPunch F
Z-Straight: GutsStraight O + GutsStraight P + GutsStraight Q
           GutsStraight P + GutsStraight Q + GutsStraight R
           GutsStraight Q + GutsStraight R + GutsStraight S
Z-Impact:   GutsImpact G + GutsImpact H + GutsImpact I
           GutsImpact H + GutsImpact I + GutsImpact J
           GutsImpact I + GutsImpact J + GutsImpact K
Z-Variable: VariableSword B + VariableSword C + VariableSword D
           VariableSword C + VariableSword D + VariableSword E
           VariableSword D + VariableSword E + VariableSword F
Z-YoYo1:    Yo-Yo1 C + Yo-Yo1 D + Yo-Yo1 E
           Yo-Yo1 D + Yo-Yo1 E + Yo-Yo1 F
           Yo-Yo1 E + Yo-Yo1 F + Yo-Yo1 G
Z-YoYo2:    Yo-Yo2 H + Yo-Yo2 I + Yo-Yo2 J
           Yo-Yo2 I + Yo-Yo2 J + Yo-Yo2 K
           Yo-Yo2 J + Yo-Yo2 K + Yo-Yo2 L
Z-YoYo3:    Yo-Yo3 M + Yo-Yo3 N + Yo-Yo3 O
           Yo-Yo3 N + Yo-Yo3 O + Yo-Yo3 P
           Yo-Yo3 O + Yo-Yo3 P + Yo-Yo3 Q
Z-Step1:    StepSword L + StepSword M + StepSword N
           StepSword M + StepSword N + StepSword O
           StepSword N + StepSword O + StepSword P
Z-Step2:    StepCross O + StepCross P + StepCross Q
           StepCross P + StepCross Q + StepCross R
           StepCross Q + StepCross R + StepCross S
GigaCount:  TimeBomb J + TimeBomb K + TimeBomb L
           TimeBomb K + TimeBomb L + TimeBomb M
           TimeBomb L + TimeBomb M + TimeBomb N

I'm not including BubSpread and HeatSpread because they both have counterparts
that are MUCH easier to construct and more popular.

As you can see, there a quite a few Zeta program advances. However, these tend
to be quite unpopular, as they require having four of a chip in your folder
with three different codes. The logical way to use these, if you were to do so,
would be to have two of one code and one of each of the others.

The Equation: Odds Set2 x Odds Set1 x Odds Set1

For a draw of five: .2610 x .1379 x .1379 = .0049 (0.49%)
For a draw of six: .3201 x .1724 x .1724 = .0095 (0.95%)
For a draw of seven: .3768 x .2068 x .2068 = .0161 (1.61%)
For a draw of eight: .4310 x .2413 x .2413 = .0250 (2.50%)
For a draw of nine: .4827 x .2758 x .2758 = .0367 (3.67%)
For a draw of ten: .5320 x .3103 x .3103 = .0512 (5.12%)

\\A seemingly special case: H-Burst
H-Burst: Spreader M + Spreader N + Spreader O
        Spreader N + Spreader O + Spreader P
        Spreader O + Spreader P + Spreader Q

However, it is possible to acquire Spreader *s. Moreso if you play through
multiple times, have multiple carts, or generous friends. Still, since only one
of the codes in the program advance can be *, the odds remain the same as the
rest of the Zeta Program Advances.


e. PrixPowr

PrixPower: Team1 * + Team2 * + KingManv5 K
          Team1 * + Team2 * + BowlManv5 B
          Team1 * + Team2 * + MistManv5 M

Since it is possible to fit GigaFolder in the NaviCust, along with a Custom1
and a Custom2, I will also calculate this for two possible v5 Navi Chips up to
ten possible chips.

The Equation(1): Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set1

For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .1379 = .0301 (3.01%)
For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .1724 = .0526 (5.26%)
For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .2068 = .0813 (8.13%)
For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .2413 = .1155 (11.55%)
For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .2758 = .1543 (15.43%)
For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .3103 = .1966 (19.66%)

The Equation(2): Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set2

For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .2610 = .0569  (5.69%)
For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .3201 = .0977 (9.77%)
For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .3768 = .1481 (14.81%)
For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .4310 = .2063 (20.63%)
For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .4827 = .2700 (27.00%)
For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .5320 = .3370 (33.70%)


f. ElemSwrd

This is a four part program advance. The odds are the same as the previous
section but to the fourth power as opposed to the third.

The Equation: Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set4

For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .4673 x .4673 = .0476 (4.76%)
For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .5526 x .5526 = .0932 (9.32%)
For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .6271 x .6271 = .1546 (15.46%)
For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .6920 x .6920 = .2293 (22.93%)
For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .7480 x .7480 = .3130 (31.30%)
For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .7960 x .7960 = .4014 (40.14%)


g. MomQuake

MomQuake:  RockCube * + RockCube * + GodStone S

The Equation: Odds Set4 x Odds Set3 (One RockCube Gone) x Odds Set1

For a draw of five: .4673 x .3705 x .1379 = .0238 (2.38%)
For a draw of six: .5526 x .4460 x .1724 = .0424 (4.24%)
For a draw of seven: .6271 x .5153 x .2068 = .0668 (6.68%)
For a draw of eight: .6920 x .5785 x .2413 = .0965 (9.65%)
For a draw of nine: .7480 x .6360 x .2758= .1308 (13.08%)
For a draw of ten: .7960 x .6880 x .3103 = .1699 (16.99%)


h. BigHeart

BigHeart: HolyPanel R + Recov300 R + Roll(any version) R

Since there are only three versions of Roll this Program Advance needs it's
own section.

The Equation: Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set3

For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .3705 = .0809 (8.09%)
For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .4460 = .1361 (13.61%)
For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .5153 = .2026 (20.26%)
For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .5785 = .2270 (22.70%)
For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .6360 = .3558 (35.58%)
For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .6880 = .4359 (43.59%)


i. MstrStyl

MasterStyle: Salamander * + Fountain * + Bolt * + GaiaBlade *

The Equation: Odds Set1 x Odds Set1 x Odds Set1 x Odds Set1

This small section is to prove to the newbies everywhere that MasterStyle
actually IS completely useless, as three of the four parts are chaff (all
four if you haven't gotten a style yet) and it's nigh impossible to acquire all
four parts.

For a ten chip draw: .3103^4 = .0092 (0.92%)
For a nine chip draw: .2758^4 = .0057 (0.57%)
For an eight chip draw: .2413^4 = .0033 (0.33%)
For a seven chip draw: .2068^4 = .0018 (0.18%)
For a six chip draw: .1724^4 = .0008 (0.08%)
For a five chip draw: .1379^4 = .0003 (0.03%)
For a four chip draw: Impossible (with a Preset chip)
For a three chip draw: Impossible

As you can see, the odds of getting MasterStyle on an opening chip draw, even
if it's a full ten chips, are still less than one percent.

If you preset GaiaBlade and have a full ten chips, the odds are a whopping
2.98%. Still, with a full chip draw, those odds are dismal. In fewer than one
out of every thirty-three battles you'll pull it out.


+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\
| VI. Atk+ Chips               {
+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/

Coming Soon!

To tell the truth, I'm not sure how I should go about doing the math for this
part yet. I have an idea, but I need to really think it out. If you have any
suggestions, feel free to drop me a line. You can find my information in the
contacts section.


+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\
| VII. The ADD Function        {
+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/

Looking back at the timing/chip flow section, it becomes clear that the
alternative to using add (using the NaviCust space for Custom programs) is
much more favorable. With ADD you lose a whole round and leave yourself
completely defenseless. No specific math is really necessary, as logic and
the figures above are a testament to that fact.


+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\
| VIII. What about FolderBak?  {
+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/

The beauty of FolderBack is that, while most people believe that it completely
debases any math, it only makes the math more relavent. When you use
FolderBack, the odds of getting any given chip reset back to the original
starting point that the math in this FAQ shows, according to whatever odds you
began with.

The knock here, though, as this applies to the FullCustom vs. FastGauge
controversy, that FullCustom has the upper hand, as it is reusable. Still, any
argument of this nature is disregarding the fact that once you use FolderBack,
the FastGauge is still in effect. While true that it may be a dead chip in your
draw (this is the stronger case) neither chip really is given the advantage due
to the utilization of FolderBack.

The odds of getting FolderBack are as follows:

For a three chip draw (what's the point?): 6.89%
For a four chip draw: 10.34%
For a five chip draw: 13.79%
For a six chip draw: 17.24%
For a seven chip draw: 20.68%
For an eight chip draw: 24.13%
For a nine chip draw: 27.58%
For a ten chip draw: 31.03%


+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\
| IX. Sweet Spotting           {
+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/

A sweet spot is how many chips you must see before the odds of getting a
program advance or combo becomes extremely highly probable. This mark happens
to be past 70%.

Two Chip Combos
\\GaiaBlade + Mine; NOBeam + Field Obstacle; Plasma + Elec+30

1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17 * 16)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 *
25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20)]
1 – [(19 * 18 * 17 * 16)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)]
1 – [93024/570024]
1 – [.1631]
8368
Chance of getting any given part: 83.68%
8368^2 = 70.02
Chance of getting the combo: 70.02%

Sweet Spot: 10 Chips

Three Chip Combos
\\DeuxHero; EverCurse

1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17 * 16 * 15 * 14)/(29 * 28 *
27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18)]
1 – [(17 * 16 * 15 * 14)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)]
1 – [57120/570024]
1 – [.1002]
8997
Chance of getting any given part: 89.97%
8368^3 = .7284
Chance of getting the combo: 72.84%

Sweet Spot: 12 Chips

Four Chip Combos
\\FlashMan + HyperRat; PlantMan + EvilCut; 2xHero

1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17 * 16 * 15 * 14 * 13)/(29 *
28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17)]
1 – [(16 * 15 * 14 * 13)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)]
1 – [43680/570024]
1 – [.0766]
9233
Chance of getting any given part: 92.33%
9233^4 = .7269
Chance of getting the combo: 72.69%

Sweet Spot: 13 Chips

Five Chip Combos
\\GrassStage + Prism + HeatSpread

1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17 * 16 * 15 * 14 * 13 * 12)/
(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17 * 16 * 15)]
1 – [(15 * 14 * 13 * 12)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)]
1 – [32760/570024]
1 – [.0574]
9425
Chance of getting any given part: 94.25%
9425^5 = .7438
Chance of getting the combo: 74.38%

Sweet Spot: 15 Chips


+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\
| X. Statistical Analysis      {
+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/

All the raw numbers are included here so that you may reference them more
easily while reading the statistical analysis. I've put them into tables and
graphs, too. It makes the trends more readily apparent.

i. Raw Numbers

Chip Acquisiton Odds:

Draw:  Three     Four     Five     Six     Seven    Eight     Nine     Ten
      ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________
     |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |
Set 1 | 6.89%  | 10.34% | 13.79% | 17.24% | 20.68% | 24.13% | 27.58% | 31.03% |
     |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________|
     |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |
Set 2 | 13.54% | 19.95% | 26.10% | 32.01% | 37.68% | 43.10% | 48.27% | 53.20% |
     |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________|
     |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |
Set 3 | 19.95% | 28.84% | 37.05% | 44.60% | 51.53% | 57.85% | 63.60% | 69.80% |
     |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________|
     |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |
Set 4 | 26.10% | 37.05% | 46.73% | 55.26% | 62.71% | 69.20% | 74.80% | 79.60% |
     |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________|


In Graph Form: http://server5.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-ChipGet1.JPG

Legend:
Blue Line - Four Chip Draw
Pink Line - Three Chip Draw
Yellow Line - Two Chip Draw
Light Blue Line - One Chip Draw


Combo Acquisiton Odds:

Draw:  Three     Four     Five     Six     Seven    Eight     Nine     Ten
      ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________
     |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |
Set 1 |  N/A   | 0.11%  | 0.26%  | 0.51%  | 0.88%  | 1.40%  | 2.09%  | 2.98%  |
     |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________|
     |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |
Set 2 |  N/A   | 0.79%  | 1.77%  | 3.28%  | 5.35%  | 8.00%  | 11.25% | 15.05% |
     |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________|
     |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |
Set 3 |  N/A   | 2.40%  | 5.08%  | 8.87%  | 13.68% | 19.36% | 25.72% | 32.56% |
     |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________|
     |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |
Set 4 |  N/A   | 5.08%  | 10.21% | 16.87% | 24.66% | 33.13% | 41.85% | 50.43% |
     |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________|

In Graph Form: http://server5.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-ComboGet1.JPG

Legend:
Blue Line - Four Chip Draw
Pink Line - Three Chip Draw
Yellow Line - Two Chip Draw
Light Blue Line - One Chip Draw


Sweet Spots:

Two Chip Combos: 10
Three Chip Combos: 12
Four Chip Combos: 13
Five Chip Combos: 15


Chip Flow Graphs:

Only the graphs are here. See the section itself for the charts and other
notes.

Three Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-ThreeChipDraw.JPG
Four Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-FourChipDraw.JPG
Five Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-FiveChipDraw.JPG
Six Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-SixChipDraw.JPG
Seven Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-SevenChipDraw.JPG
Eight Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-EightChipDraw.JPG
Nine Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-NineChipDraw.JPG
Ten Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-TenChipDraw.JPG

Legend:
Blue Line - FullCustom
Pink Line - FastGauge


ii. Statistical Analysis

The basic idea of all this stuff is to get you to make educated choices as to
how you should go about optimizing your folder and NaviCust, and how to do so
in NetBattles as well. What you should keep and what you should toss out behind
a FullCust. What you can count on to show up and what probably won't come.

Obviously you're going to want to use a NaviCust setup that gets you the most
bang for your buck. What you need to do is match up your NaviCust setup with
whatever combo you use. The first thing to assure is that you sweet-spot your
combo after using a FullCustom. Let's say you're working off a four chip combo.
You need at least eight chips in your opening draw so that after dumping four
behind a FullCust you'll sweet spot. Since you know you need an eight chip
draw, you should find a setup that suits that eight chip draw. This way, in
your extra space you can place other programs that will help in a NetBattle.
Some prefer simply to have a full chip draw in the first place. If you can
find a better setup that suits you that way, then more power to you.

As far as FullCust vs. FastGauge goes, it's obviously better to use both. I bet
you didn't need an FAQ to tell you that, did you? But, seriously, I recommend
using FastGauge in your NaviCust and using FullCust as your regular chip. As
far as which one you should use if you're forced to choose, it comes down to a
matter of playing style. If your folder is slower and just works consistently
each turn, I suggest FastGauge. However, if you're trying to knock out the
opponent fast with a deadly combo, use FullCustom. Again, make sure you sweet
spot after you do so.

Get a general idea of the odds of pulling any chip at any time with your setup.
This shouldn't be hard. Look at the first table above and find what you like to
work with. Most go for a set of three or four chips, so use whichever you are
to figure out your sweet-spot and therefore which custom draw number you should
have. Find where the two match up and remember that number. This way, you know
whether you should dump the doubles of the part of a PA you're holding or
whether you should keep them in favor of support chips. Once you've gotten this
down, you should remember the rest of the column so that you know the odds of a
chip showing up after you've already used or dumped one or two. This takes a
lot more mental effort than you may be used to, but keeping track of such
things will make you MUCH better. After this you may want to learn the odds of
drawing another support chip, also, based on how many you have.

When building a folder, consider the odds of getitng the PA or combo you're
working around. When doing so, the special section can be quite helpful in
determining if you really want to use something. Frankly, some of the odds of
things turned out to be utterly dismal--even worse than I imagined (except in
the case of MasterStyle). By looking at the charts or by seeing where the odds
graphs match up laterally (that's horizontal, folks) you can see what you're
sacrificing by playing with a lower chip count. For example, playing with a
ten chip count with a three chip set is more or less equivalent to playing with
an eight chip draw with four of each. Are you willing to sacrifice the three
chips for the additional NaviCust space or do you want to give up NaviCust room
to have three additional chip slots in your folder? Before, such choices
seemed completely unrelated. NaviCusts and Folders were constructed seperately,
and you used any one which seemed that it had synergy, usually in the form of
a stage program or something equally trivial. Now, the choice is a matter of
direct consequence.


+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\
| XI. Contact Information      {
+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/

You can e-mail me at [email protected] if you have any questions, comments
complaints, or suggestions regarding this FAQ. However, do not contact me
regarding MMBN questions other than those related to the content of this FAQ.


+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\
| XII. Credits                 {
+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/

My first thanks goes to the field of statistics. They made it all possible.

I'd also like to thank CrimsonKnight for helping me with some of the NaviCust
setups, input on design choices, and other math-related advice.

Thanks to Asakura Yoh for letting me use some NaviCust setups from his and
CrimsonKnight's FAQ.

I'd like to thank Zidanet129, who let me borrow some of the EXCodes from his
NaviCust guide.

Thanks to these people who made decent NaviCust setups for me: TheDarkUnknown,
LusterSoldier (for inspiration).

Thanks to Capcom for making the series.

..And I've decided to put the copyright information here, too.

MegaMan and MegaMan Battle Network are copyrights of Capcom. Violate it and
they can sue you for every penny you're worth.

This guide is copyright Mike O'Connor, 2004. Violate it and I'll eat your
family (I can't afford lawyers). But seriosuly, if you want to use what's here,
contact me about it first. I have no problems sharing but I will take legal
action if you try to rip me off.

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