| Return Create A Forum - Home | |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| nCoV_info | |
| https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com | |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| ***************************************************** | |
| Return to: nCoV - discussion | |
| ***************************************************** | |
| #Post#: 263-------------------------------------------------- | |
| B.1.1.7 = vui-202012/1 | |
| By: gsgs Date: December 17, 2020, 9:48 pm | |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-… | |
| twitter-thread from @Chjulian , translated from Spanish : | |
| Update: Headlines announce the identification of a "new | |
| variant" of the coronavirus in the UK. | |
| It is not clear if the new variant is responsible for the | |
| increase in cases. | |
| However, this variant is interesting. And here I tell you why 37 | |
| / n | |
| @Chjulian | |
| � | |
| First, we need to understand that our immune system uses | |
| specialized mechanisms | |
| to recognize and eliminate the virus, preventing its spread and | |
| ending disease. | |
| The infectious period is the time in which we can transmit | |
| SARS-CoV-2 to another person | |
| In the case of COVID19, the infectious period begins a couple of | |
| days before symptoms | |
| develop and can last up to a couple of weeks (more details here | |
| https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/8/e039856 | |
| ). The disease is generally acute, short-lived bone 39 / n | |
| An Immunocompetent individual has a normal | |
| immune response. When our immune | |
| system is weakened, we say it is immunosuppressed. | |
| Immunosuppressed individuals | |
| may have persistent infections that last for longer periods of | |
| time (months!) 40 / n | |
| Under these conditions, SARS-CoV-2 can accumulate many more | |
| mutations than we | |
| would expect (in a single individual) and which could be | |
| transmitted if the transmission | |
| is successful after a long time 41 / n | |
| Remember that it is normal for viruses to mutate and SARS-CoV-2 | |
| accumulates | |
| (on average) one or two mutations per month at the population | |
| level 42 / n | |
| [## 1.43 per month , ua5m1.gif {gsgs} ] | |
| The new variant (named B.1.1.7) has 17 mutations (woah!). And it | |
| is speculated that | |
| it could have originated in an individual with a persistent | |
| infection (for example, | |
| an immunosuppressed individual, but we have no information about | |
| it) 43 / n | |
| It is important to mention that our immune system goes to the | |
| battlefield as quickly | |
| as possible to avoid an arms race at the molecular level, | |
| reducing the chances that | |
| the virus will produce a mutation that allows it to evade our | |
| immune response 44 / n | |
| If the hypothesis turns out to be true, it can have important | |
| consequences for treatment. | |
| A persistent infection accumulates diversity and depending on | |
| how we treat it, we may | |
| or may not cause an arms race at the molecular level 45 / n | |
| That is, to select mutations with unknown epidemiological | |
| potential. There is no need | |
| to be alarmed, I just want to show how we scientists must think | |
| and articulate our strategy | |
| to face the battle in the short, medium and long term 46 / N | |
| Nor can we say that a persistent infection in an | |
| immunosuppressed individual is a | |
| greater problem than infections in immunocompetent individuals. | |
| Definitely the | |
| evolutionary forces that "moderate" the evolution of the virus | |
| are different and ... 47 / n | |
| ... we hope that the origin of B.1.1.7 was somewhat unusual and | |
| had nothing to do | |
| with the increase in cases (studies continue). There is also a | |
| second hypothesis | |
| (with less support) to explain why this variant has so many 48 / | |
| n mutations | |
| Are you sure they remember minks? there is always the slim | |
| chance that SARS-CoV-2 | |
| will adapt to other mammals (By the way, there are no minks on | |
| farms in the UK), | |
| but a prolonged epidemic ... 49 / n | |
| ... in the fauna around us it could result in new genetic | |
| variants that could (after a while) | |
| jump to humans with various mutations. For this and other | |
| reasons, it is important to | |
| evaluate what is happening at the level of the fauna around us | |
| 50 / n | |
| t really amazes me how much we learn and the twists and turns a | |
| sprout can take! 51 / n | |
| Fortunately, there is no evidence (to date) that this variant | |
| has an impact on the severity | |
| of the disease or on the effectiveness of 52 / n vaccines. | |
| #Post#: 266-------------------------------------------------- | |
| Re: B.1.1.7 = vui-202012/1 | |
| By: gsgs Date: December 19, 2020, 3:41 am | |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| Boris Johnson calls crisis meeting over new Covid strain on | |
| Friday night (Dec18) | |
| rumors say it is 50% more transmissable | |
| and now we also have a report from South Africa about a more | |
| transmissable strain, | |
| also containing N501Y | |
| ***************************************************** |