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#Post#: 207-------------------------------------------------- |
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Apr07 model UofWA |
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By: gsgs Date: April 7, 2020, 6:58 am |
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Apr.07 , Chris Murray , UofWA Institute for Health Metrics and |
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Evaluation |
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https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america |
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https://covid19-projections.com/ |
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https://covid19forecasthub.eu/reports.html |
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https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/india/ |
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---------------------------------------------------------------- |
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COVID-19-deaths until Aug04 |
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peak-date |
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country |
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------------------------- |
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00385,Mar31,Austria |
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03546,Apr06,Belgium |
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00303,Apr24,Bulgaria |
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00166,Apr20,Croatia |
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00054,Apr19,Cyprus |
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00411,Apr12,Czechia |
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00529,Apr09,Denmark |
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00484,Apr25,Estonia |
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00225,Apr21,Finland |
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15058,Apr01,France |
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08802,Apr14,Germany |
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00457,Apr18,Greece |
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00477,Apr23,Hungary |
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00401,Apr04,Ireland |
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20300,Mar28,Italy |
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00125,Apr25,Latvia |
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05808,Apr10,Netherlands |
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01953,Apr21,Poland |
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19209,Mar31,Spain |
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04182,Apr25,Sweden |
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66314,Apr17,UK |
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81766,Apr15,USA |
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-------------------------------------------- |
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update 0408, 60415,Apr11,USA |
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update 0413, 68841,Apr10,USA |
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update 0413, 23791,Apr14,UK |
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update 0413, 15834,May04,NL |
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update 0413, 17448,Apr02,F |
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update 0413, 21130,Mar28,I |
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IHME,Mar27, USA=81114 |
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IHME,Apr01, USA=93765, |
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IHME,Apr08, |
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USA=60415,UK=66314,S=04182,I=20300,F=15058,D=8802,B=3546,Ire=052 |
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7,NY=13307 |
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IHME,Apr16, USA=60415,UK=66314 |
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IHME,Apr17, |
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USA=68841,UK=66314,S=04182,I=20333,F=15058,D=7080,B=4291,Ire=527 |
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,NY=13307 |
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IHME,Apr22, |
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USA=67641,UK=31929,S=10584,I=26867,F=23304,D=6124,B=8128,Ire=103 |
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0,NY=24000 |
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IHME,Apr29, |
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USA=72860,UK=31476,S=15625,I=27544,F=24918,D=6946,B=7708,Ire=140 |
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4,NY=24314 |
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IHME,May06,USA=134475,UK=40555,S=10196,I=31458,F=28859,D=8543,B= |
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9464,Ire=1698,NY=32132 |
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IHME,May12,USA=147040,UK=43479,S=5769,I=35137,F=31155,D=9905,B=1 |
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0594,Ire=1736,NY=34068 |
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Brazil=88305,Canada=9945,Mexico=6859,Peru=6428,Turkey=5263,IL=78 |
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30,PA=12420,CA=5832,OH=2844 |
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IHME,May29,USA=135109,UK=44389,S=05258,I=43297,F=31466,D=9146,B= |
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9699,Ire=1692,NY=31295 |
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Brazil=125833,Canada=8148,Mex=6859,Peru=19722,Turkey=4759,Russia |
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=7201, |
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CA=12951,GA=2759,IL=6371,MO=996,NY=31295,OH=3227,PA=6418,TX=2025 |
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IHME,Jun17,USA=201129(by |
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Oct01),UK=43963(Aug04),S=8534,I=35230,F=34602,D=9500,B=11093,Ire |
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=1727 |
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BRA=165960,CDN=8148,MEX=51912,PER=19722,Turkey=5176,Russia=21895 |
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CA=15155,GA=10142,IL=8274,MO=1647,NY=33685,OH=3658,PA=8831,TX=55 |
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67 |
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IHME,Jun28,USA=179106,UK=47924(Oct01),S=5754,I=41756,F=30391,D=1 |
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1555,B=9869,Ire=1790, |
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BRA=166362,CDN=10053,MEX=88150,PER=36210,Turkey=29895,Russia=191 |
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05,PAK=42188 |
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CA=11631,GA=6614,IL=8487,MO=2778,NY=31837,OH=3781,PA=7799,TX=137 |
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36 |
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#Post#: 237-------------------------------------------------- |
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Re: Apr07 model UofWA |
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By: gsgs Date: May 20, 2020, 3:54 am |
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--------------------------------------------------------- |
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another forecaster : |
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https://covid19-projections.com/ |
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2020/05/20 |
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USA:195077 deaths by Aug04 , 143357 |
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Sweden : 7331 , 5760 |
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UK: 50070 , 43479 |
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Germany: 10836 |
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Ukraine:7842 , 1269 |
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Belgium: 10388 |
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Poland: 2475 , 1990 |
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Brazil: 136958 , 88305 |
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China: 4642 |
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India: 42361 |
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Indonesia: 2572 |
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Iran: 13296 |
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Mexico: 67887 , 6859 |
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Nigeria: 681 |
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Russia: 16758 |
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Bangladesh: 3370 |
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Europe: 217562 |
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World: 776423 |
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Jun01, |
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US=192098,S=7028,UK=47696,DE=10399,UKR=3378,B=10196,POL=2133,BRA |
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=139005, |
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CHN=4648,IND=55797,IDN=5654,Iran=11985,MEX=97096,NIG=1543,Russia |
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=23727,BGD=6065 |
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CA=12938,GA=6080,IL=10499,MO=2743,NY=33017,OH=6560,PA=9492,TX=55 |
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63 |
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Jun17,(by Oct01) |
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US=189793,S=6314,UK=49276,DE=10481,UKR=3600,B=10078,POL=3294,BRA |
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=121826, |
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CHN=4648,IND=358926,IDN=9179,IRN=16640,MEX=84651,NIG=2654,RUS=22 |
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371,BGD=10994 |
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CA=16484,GA=5869,IL=11777,MO=1692,NY=32952,OH=5212,PA=9382,TX=45 |
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11 |
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India projected at 360000 deaths now ! It was 56000 on Jun01, I |
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wonder what changed |
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Jun29,(by Oct01) |
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US=180095,S=6325,UK=48877,DE=10535,UKR=3309,B=10022,POL=3017,MDA |
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=1502,BRA=133726 |
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CHN=4649,IND=100789,IDN=8233,IRN=19750,MEX=98421,NIG=1867,RUS=19 |
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092,BGD=8633 |
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CA=14430,GA=5941,IL=10368,MO=1759,NY=33439,OH=5038,PA=9343,TX=70 |
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06 |
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India back to 100000 |
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#Post#: 250-------------------------------------------------- |
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Re: Apr07 model UofWA |
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By: gsgs Date: September 4, 2020, 1:40 am |
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https://twitter.com/AliHMokdad/status/1301671920916525056 |
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IHME on Sep04 predicts 410000 deaths for USA until Jan01 |
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covid-projections gives 220300 until Nov01, 16000 per month |
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(-->260000 until Jan01) |
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#Post#: 254-------------------------------------------------- |
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Re: Apr07 model UofWA |
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By: gsgs Date: September 22, 2020, 7:01 pm |
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--------------------------------------------------------- |
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Sep23 , IHME deaths forecast for Jan01 : |
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USA=378321,CHN=6915,AUS=950,IDN=22346,AUT=4236,BEL=13488,CRO=287 |
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8,CZE=8080, |
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FRA=88528,GER=22664,ITA=67687,RUS=98182,SRB=771,SPA=65921,SWE=98 |
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13,UK=93429 |
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BRA=170072,MEX=139894,ISR=7153,CAN=17511,NY=43857,IND=625165, |
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Sep23,covidtracker deaths forecast for Nov01 : |
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USA=222951,NY=33425,CAN=9777,AUT=883,BEL=10240,CRO=356,CZE=931,F |
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RA=34991, |
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GER=9667,ITA=36812,SPA=37969,SWE=5957,UK=43826 |
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AUS=981,BRA=159314,CHN=4790,IND=135730,IDN=14641,ISR=2095,MEX=88 |
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524, |
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RUS=24337, |
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--------------------- |
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France currently has 31416 total deaths and 50 per day |
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it currently redoubles every 14 days |
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31416+75*14+150*14+300*10=37566 by Nov01 |
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===> deaths by Nov01 |
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#Post#: 261-------------------------------------------------- |
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Re: Apr07 model UofWA |
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By: gsgs Date: December 9, 2020, 4:54 am |
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--------------------------------------------------------- |
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2020/12/09, death forecasts per 2021/04/01 by IHME : |
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USA=538893,GER=108119,FRA=93581,ITA=101176,UK=118674,BRA=217147, |
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IRN=94389 |
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2021-06-13, death forecasts per 2021-10-01 by IHME : |
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USA=950337,GER=133026,FRA=143473,ITA=164264,UK=153761,BRA=727083 |
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,IND=1198621,all,9505216 |
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#Post#: 300-------------------------------------------------- |
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Re: Apr07 model UofWA |
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By: gsgs Date: June 12, 2021, 9:48 pm |
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--------------------------------------------------------- |
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22457-w.pdf |
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#Post#: 303-------------------------------------------------- |
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Re: Apr07 model UofWA |
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By: gsgs Date: June 27, 2021, 8:26 pm |
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--------------------------------------------------------- |
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IHME death-predictions for 2021-06-28 and 2021-10-01 on |
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2021-06-28 : |
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USA,925751,949335 |
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UK,152318,163383 |
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GER,132000,133264 |
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BRA,643700,761018 |
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CHL,32285,44985 |
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ISR,6860,6901 |
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IND,1111110,1162831 |
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IDN,152432,386181 |
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RUS,852715,1003439 |
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SA,156505,208921 |
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IHME death-predictions for 2021-12-01 on 2021-08-25 : |
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USA:727949 |
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UK:166634 |
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GER:117836 |
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IND:458856 |
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BRA:642610 |
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MEX:298179 |
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IDN:216577 |
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AUS:2041 |
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NZ:29 |
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