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| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| nCoV_info | |
| https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com | |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| ***************************************************** | |
| Return to: vaccine | |
| ***************************************************** | |
| #Post#: 321-------------------------------------------------- | |
| omicron vaccine effectiveness | |
| By: gsgs Date: December 31, 2021, 9:22 pm | |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| scroll down for the most actual numbers | |
| actual numbers on hospitalisations and positive-rates here: | |
| https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/genetics/b-1-1-529-(nu-)/msg320/#msg320 | |
| : | |
| https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-va… | |
| https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/atta… | |
| UK,symp, | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/tb34a.GIF | |
| UK,hosp: | |
| VE(UK,h,1d, 7w,O)=52 | |
| VE(UK,h,2d,11w,O)=72 | |
| VE(UK,h,2d,30w,O)=52 | |
| VE(UK,h,3d, 4w,O)=88 | |
| Ontario , VE(case),1129-1231 | |
| 76,76,74,74,72,73,72 | |
| 71,70,69,67,67,64,63 | |
| 59,53,47,40,32,25,16 | |
| +08,+01,-05,-12,-18,-25,-28 | |
| -31,-33,-29,-32,-38 | |
| Ontario , VE(hosp),1213-1231 | |
| 84,84,83,82,82,81,81 | |
| 79,78,77,75,73,70,66 | |
| 63,60,56,54,47 | |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| Robert Koch Institute report released today states that 95.58% | |
| of the #Omicron cases | |
| in Germany are fully vaccinated (28% of those had a "booster"), | |
| 4.42% are unvaccinated. | |
| -------------------------------------------------------- | |
| the 2nd dose mRNA vaccine given to someone who also had past | |
| infection | |
| did not further increase antibodies | |
| --------------------------------------------------- | |
| > One of the studies shows omicron is 89% as severe in people | |
| with no vax, never infected | |
| ------------------------------------------------------ | |
| vaccine effectiveness | |
| AZ,BNT,Mod | |
| D,2,h,78,91 | |
| D,3,h,98,98 | |
| O,2,h,51,75 | |
| O,3,h,90,86 | |
| O,2,h,ar,54,77 | |
| O,3,h,ar,92,88 | |
| O,2,s,--,55,37 | |
| ar:adjusted for reinfections | |
| s: symptomatic disease | |
| h:hospitalisation | |
| O:omicron | |
| D:delta | |
| w:weeks | |
| https://twitter.com/freja_kirsebom/status/1474070653326270473 | |
| O,2AZ+BNT,s,3w,60 | |
| O,2AZ+BNT,s,10w,35 | |
| O,2AZ+Mod,s,10w,45 | |
| O,3BNT,s,1w,70 | |
| O,3BNT,s,10w,45 | |
| O,2BNT+Mod,9w,72 | |
| O,2Mod,3w,50 | |
| O,2Mod,22w,0 | |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------- | |
| ----------- | |
| DNK,VE : | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21267966v2.full.pdf | |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------- | |
| ----- | |
| VE(3*BNT,omicron,symp)=75% | |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------- | |
| - | |
| SinoVac doesn�t provide sufficient antibodies to neutralize | |
| omicron | |
| ------------------------------------------------------ | |
| VE(2xBNT,omicron,hosp)=70% | |
| VE(2xBNT,omicron,inf)=33% | |
| wanes | |
| 1. 2-4 wks after 2nd dose: 56% | |
| 2. 3-4 mnths after 2nd dose: 25% | |
| VE(delta-->omicron,inf)=60% | |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------- | |
| VE(symp,2AZ,omicron,5m?,UK)=0 | |
| VE(symp,2BNT,omicron,5m?,UK)~30% | |
| VE(symp,3BNT,omicron,1m,UK)=72% | |
| https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/atta… | |
| https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469351833416122369 | |
| ------------------------------------------------ | |
| current vaccine effectivity in Iceland | |
| see | |
| https://www.covid.is/data | |
| VE(2shots,case) = -88% (Jan02) | |
| VE(3shots,case) = 38% (Jan02) | |
| VE(2shots,hosp) = 71% (Dec28) | |
| VE(3shots,hosp) = 84% (Dec28) | |
| ------------------------------------------------ | |
| Iceland : | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/ice1228.GIF | |
| VE(ICE,case,3d,5w,O)=48 | |
| VE(ICE,case,2d,20w,O)=-82% | |
| Washington : | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/wa-1229.GIF | |
| VE(WA,case,omicron)=60% | |
| New York : | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/ny-1222.GIF | |
| VE(NY,case,omicron)=75 | |
| Virginia : | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/va-1225.GIF | |
| VE(VA,case,omicron)=92% | |
| UK,symp, | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/tb34a.GIF | |
| Ontario : VE(case)= -31% VE(hosp)=45% , VE(ICU)=84% (was | |
| 73%,82%,90% 5 weeks ago) | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/ont-0105.GIF | |
| California : VE(case)=75% (-1% per day) , VE(hosp)=87% (-0.5% | |
| per day) , VE(death)=95% (stable) | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/ca-1226.GIF | |
| Oregon, Dec30 : | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/or-1230.GIF | |
| VE(case)=66% | |
| Germany, Jan06 : | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/rki2w01.GIF | |
| VE(case,2dose,18-59)= 53 , VE(hosp,18-59)=76 , VE(ICU)=89 | |
| VE(case,3dose,18-59) = 82 , VE(hosp,3dose,18-59)=92 | |
| (it's for the last 4 weeks , still mostly delta, the omicron | |
| wave is just starting, | |
| mainly young people get it early in the wave, so I took 18-59 | |
| and not 60+) | |
| ---------------------------------------- | |
| USA-CA : | |
| VE(Mod,case,O,2dose,14-90d)=30 quickly declining | |
| VE(Mod,case,O,3dose,)=63 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.07.22268919v1 | |
| ---------------------------------------- | |
| vaccine effectiveness in UK with 2-3 doses , | |
| 4-week average | |
| average of 4-5 highest from 7 agegroups | |
| ONS-denumerators | |
| reported in weeks 1,2 of 2022 | |
| VE(case) , av(5)=26.1% , 22.8% | |
| VE(admis) , av(5)=+91.5% , +89.1% | |
| VE(death) , av(4)=+92.4% , +93.2% | |
| ----------------------------------------------------------- | |
| VE-numbers in % for case/symp , hosp , ICU , death | |
| ONT,0112 , VE(2+dose)=-25,40,77,-- | |
| ICE,0105 , VE(2dose) = 00,66,--,-- | |
| ICE,0105 , VE(3dose) = 32,68,--,-- | |
| Germany actual estimates from 4-week-period-numbers | |
| DEU,0113 , VE(2dose) = 00,59,76,82 | |
| DEU,0113 , VE(3dose) = 40,83,86,89 | |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------- | |
| Italy : | |
| https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-int… | |
| fig.A10,A11 | |
| VE much better in old people ? I assume it's because omicron | |
| infects young people first | |
| and the VE(old) will go down to the VE(young) in some weeks | |
| Ontario, 01-25 : | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/ont-0125.GIF | |
| VE(2+dose,case)=15% , VE(2+dose,hosp)=50% | |
| VE(2+dose,ICU)=80% | |
| but these are lower numbers in the decreasing wave , VE was | |
| lower at the peak of the wave | |
| DE : 2d:30,55,90,90 ; 3d : 65,84,90,90 (symp,hosp,ICU,death) | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/rki2-w03.GIF | |
| ITA : 2dl : 08,84 ; 2ds : 31,89 ; 3d : 46,94 (case,severe | |
| case) 2d >/< 120days ago | |
| Iceland , VE(3dose,case) = 40% , VE(3dose,hosp) = 65% | |
| California :VE(case)= 76% , VE(hosp) = 85% , VE(death) = 95% | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/ca-0109.GIF | |
| New York City : VE(case)=60% , VE(hosp)=88% | |
| (NY-State gives 78% and 92%) | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/nyc-21.GIF | |
| France , 2022-01-01 , 2dose : -25% , 57% , 72% (case,hosp,ICU) | |
| France , 2022-01-01 , 3dose : 48% , 74% , 85% (case,hosp,ICU) | |
| Iceland, 2022-01-25 : VE(2dose,case)=-35% , VE(2dose,hosp)=60% | |
| , | |
| VE(3dose,case)=40% , VE(3dose,hosp)=80% | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/ice-0125.GIF | |
| Germany, 2022-01-27 , | |
| http://rki2w04.GIF | |
| 40,70,80,85 , | |
| 75,90,96,94 | |
| Israel, 2022-01-27 , average of 5 oldest age10groups | |
| 2dose>6m : 45,63 ; 2d>6m or 3dose : 45,88 for inf.,severe | |
| UK,3dose : | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/3dosek.GiF | |
| 2022-01-16 , California : | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/ca-0116.GIF | |
| 68,80,87,93 2,3dose ; case,hosp | |
| ( how can it be 76% in CA and NY but 10% in ONT and 40% in ICE | |
| ? ) | |
| 46 in ITA , 30 in UK , 70% in DE | |
| s also the effect that unvaccinated people are more likely to | |
| have natural immunity | |
| and this increasing over time. Countries/States rarely report | |
| cases nd hospitalisations by | |
| vaccination status _and_ status of previous infection | |
| #Post#: 322-------------------------------------------------- | |
| Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness | |
| By: gsgs Date: February 4, 2022, 10:37 pm | |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| Paul Mainwood makes these nice weekly updated computer-readable | |
| data files for UK-VE , | |
| since 22 weeks | |
| https://github.com/PaulMainwood/vaccine-surveillance-reports/blob/main/assortme… | |
| https://github.com/PaulMainwood/vaccine-surveillance-reports/blob/main/vaccine%… | |
| that gives VE(UK,3dose)= | |
| 40,93,98% for case,hosp,death | |
| while figures 1-2 and table 8 suggest | |
| 65,85,88% (7weeks) for symp,hosp,death | |
| https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/atta… | |
| average of age10grougs40-80, | |
| boost 0%-50% Oct01-Jan01 average 7 weeks ago | |
| average of AZ+AZ+BNT and BNT+BNT+BNT | |
| wanes 2% per week for VE(case) and 1.2% per week for VE(hosp) | |
| Germany : 75,91,98% | |
| (1*[18-59]+2*[>65])/3,3dose,clinical symp,hosp,death) | |
| Italy : | |
| #Post#: 323-------------------------------------------------- | |
| Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness | |
| By: gsgs Date: February 7, 2022, 11:07 pm | |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| actual omicron vaccine effectiveness reports | |
| ------------------------------------- | |
| location,date,doses,time since last dose, | |
| VE(case,symp,hosp,ICU,death) | |
| UK-:40,--,93 waning by 2% and 1.2% per week | |
| DEU:--,75,90,96,96 clinical symptoms | |
| ITA:--,68, 91 | |
| ICE:42,--,80 | |
| ISR:40,--,88 | |
| ONT:15,--,50 2-3 dose | |
| -NY:--,77,92 | |
| -CA:87,--,93 | |
| -OR:83,-- 2dose:68,-- | |
| -WA:75,86 2-3 dose | |
| FRA:--,88,86,-- 1201-0116 -27(00-19) | |
| FRA:--,69,79,-- | |
| FRA,2021-12-12,:86,91,93,96,90 | |
| case,symp,hosp,ICU,death age>20 | |
| #Post#: 324-------------------------------------------------- | |
| Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness | |
| By: gsgs Date: February 28, 2022, 12:19 pm | |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| -BA.1 is 94.9% effective against BA.2 | |
| -BA.2 is 85.6% effectives against BA.1 | |
| --------------------------------------- | |
| current VE in % | |
| DEU,3 ,--,69,87,95,95 | |
| UK ,3 ,18,--,84,--,95 | |
| ITA,3 ,73,--,89,94,94 | |
| NY ,23 ,70,--,90,--,-- | |
| ICE,3 ,50,--,30,--,-- | |
| CA ,3 ,81,--,90,--,94 | |
| ONT,23 ,00,--,56,76,-- | |
| location,doses,case,symp,hosp,ICU,death | |
| #Post#: 327-------------------------------------------------- | |
| Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness | |
| By: gsgs Date: April 12, 2022, 12:51 am | |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| basic vaccinations (2dose) seem to play a bigger role wrt. | |
| deaths than boosters | |
| almost no effect on case-counts (urban USA, omicron-wave) | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/cou23a.GIF | |
| 550 Counties with population >100000, making 71% of the | |
| US-population | |
| (also excluding the big rural.urban differences of omicron) | |
| taking % of elderly boosted (19%-94%, omitting 9 Counties with | |
| extreme values, | |
| and some Sates not available, e.g. Florida) | |
| average of Counties, not weighted by population | |
| (focussing on County policy , no magnitude-bias) | |
| gives deathrates | |
| 49,60,60,69,60,64,59,62,50,40 | |
| for 0-10%,...,90%-100% of elderly boosted (average of 2 values | |
| in Dec.and Feb), | |
| I forgot the exact dates) | |
| cases and deaths from usafacts, vax from CDC) | |
| (processed) datafiles : | |
| cou23a.r1 | |
| cou23b.r1 | |
| result-file : cou23.l2 | |
| #Post#: 328-------------------------------------------------- | |
| Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness | |
| By: gsgs Date: May 2, 2022, 11:01 am | |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| updates , May 2022 : | |
| Italy ; | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/ita-2427.GIF | |
| Germany : | |
| http://magictour.free.fr/rki2w17.GIF | |
| France : | |
| https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/sites/default/files/2022-04/3_4.png | |
| Ontario : | |
| California : | |
| New York : | |
| current VE in % , 2022-05-01 | |
| location,doses,case,symp,hosp,ICU,death | |
| [code] | |
| DEU,2 ,--,35,70,80,80 | |
| DEU,3 ,--,26,71,87,87 | |
| UK ,3 ,14,--,84,--,93 | |
| UK ,2 ,05,--,35,--,59 | |
| ITA,3 ,62,--,81,87,91 | |
| iTA,2 ,66,--,68,74,74 | |
| NY ,2-3,68,--,88,--,-- | |
| ICE,3 ,39,--,17,--,-- | |
| ICE,2 ,-19,-,71,--,-- during the wave : | |
| CA ,3 ,76,--,87,--,94 80,90,94 | |
| CA ,2-?,81,--,82,--,87 65,83,87 | |
| ONT,2-3,00,--,56,76,-- | |
| US14, 2,--,--,75,--,-- | |
| US14, 3,--,--,92,--,-- | |
| FRA,3 ,57,--,80,86,91 | |
| CDC,2-3,66,--,--,--,90 | |
| QAT, 2,00,--,--,--,-- | |
| QAT, 3,52,--,--,--,-- | |
| VT , 3, , ,73, , | |
| VT , 2, , ,47, , | |
| MS , 3, , , , ,74 | |
| CHL, 2, | |
| CHL, 3, | |
| EU3, 3,58,33,81,88,89 | |
| CA ,3 ,80,--,89,--,92 omicron wave | |
| CA ,2-?,70,--,82,--,85 | |
| VA ,3 ,91,--,80,--,92 omicron wave | |
| VA ,2-?,60,--,65,--,85 | |
| OR ,3 ,66,--,--,--,-- omicron wave | |
| OR ,2-?,33,--,--,--,-- | |
| location,doses,case,symp,hosp,ICU,death | |
| Hongkong , 180d after last dose B=BNT,S=Sinovac | |
| B--,--,--,--,--,77 | |
| S--,--,--,--,--,61 | |
| BB-,01,--,60,--,70(90) | |
| SS-,01,--,60,--,70(80) | |
| BBB,77,--,94,--,95 | |
| BBS,44,--,80,--,95 | |
| SSB,29,--,80,--,90 | |
| SSS,08,--,80,--,90 | |
| [/code] | |
| ================================================ | |
| VE-links | |
| CDC: | |
| https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html | |
| https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status | |
| https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-COVID-19-Cases-or-Deat… | |
| https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/3rge-nu2a/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD | |
| SD-County: | |
| https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemio… | |
| LA-County: | |
| http://www.ph.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/data/reopening-dashboard.htm | |
| OK: | |
| https://oklahoma.gov/covid19/newsroom/weekly-epidemiology-and-surveillance-repo… | |
| AR: | |
| https://www.healthy.arkansas.gov/programs-services/topics/covid-19-reports | |
| Oregon weekly reports | |
| : | |
| https://digital.osl.state.or.us/islandora/object/osl:944807 | |
| Oregon, weekly breakthrough reports | |
| : | |
| https://digital.osl.state.or.us/islandora/object/osl%3A968511 | |
| VA: | |
| https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-19-cases-… | |
| DC : | |
| https://coronavirus.dc.gov/data/vaccination | |
| CA: | |
| https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Post-Vaccine-COVID19-C… | |
| https://data.chhs.ca.gov/dataset/covid-19-post-vaccination-infection-data | |
| USA weekly reports by State : | |
| https://healthdata.gov/browse?tags=covid-19-spr&page=2 | |
| UT: | |
| https://coronavirus-dashboard.utah.gov/risk.html | |
| MS: | |
| https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,23549,420,971.html | |
| SC: | |
| https://scdhec.gov/covid19/covid-19-data/cases-hospitalizations-deaths-among-no… | |
| VT: | |
| https://dfr.vermont.gov/about-us/covid-19/modeling | |
| WA-Clark: | |
| https://clark.wa.gov/sites/default/files/media/image/2021-09/case_rate_by_vax_s… | |
| WA: | |
| https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/420-339… | |
| https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010… | |
| NY: | |
| https://projects.thecity.nyc/2020_03_covid-19-tracker/ | |
| https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page?mod=article_inline#daily… | |
| /> (wait) | |
| https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data | |
| https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data | |
| https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data/tree/master/trends | |
| WI : | |
| https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/vaccine-status.htm | |
| MN : | |
| https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbt.html | |
| FRA: | |
| https://covidtracker.fr/vaximpact/ | |
| https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/recherche?text=Covid-19 | |
| Ontario.CA: | |
| https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario | |
| BC-CA : | |
| https://www.victoriabuzz.com/2021/10/bc-health-officials-report-624-new-cases-o… | |
| Manitoba, | |
| https://geoportal.gov.mb.ca/apps/manitoba-covid-19-cases-and-risk-by-vaccinatio… | |
| England: | |
| https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-surveillance… | |
| https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants… | |
| Scotland : | |
| https://publichealthscotland.sco | |
| t/publications/show-all-releases?id=20580 | |
| Wales : | |
| https://www2.nphs.wales.nhs.uk/CommunitySurveillanceDocs.nsf/3dc04669c9e1eaa880… | |
| ICE: | |
| https://www.covid.is/data | |
| Italy : | |
| https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati | |
| CDC vacc. | |
| https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-and-Case-Trends-by-Age-G… | |
| #Post#: 329-------------------------------------------------- | |
| Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness | |
| By: gsgs Date: June 4, 2022, 9:36 am | |
| --------------------------------------------------------- | |
| Italy update : | |
| https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-int… | |
| reinfections back to 6% (figura 21) | |
| VE(3dose; case,hosp,ICU,death) now at 08,70,74,84 | |
| ,10 weeks ago it was 48,86,91,93 | |
| case , 27,08,22, 00,00,00, 44,46,55 | |
| hosp , 54,28,38, 66,58,58, 82,80,72 | |
| ICU , 67,47,41, 74,71,50, 84,86,74 | |
| death, 58,27,51, 72,76,78, 89,88,87 | |
| VE in % in France during the omicron wave , 2022-12-13 - | |
| 2022-05-22 | |
| numbers estimated from the graphics at | |
| https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/communique-de-presse/statut-vaccinale-d… | |
| 2dose , 3dose>3m , 3dose<3m ; 40-59,60-79,80+ | |
| average of the 3 agegroups : | |
| 2,3>,3< | |
| --------------- | |
| case , 19,00,48 | |
| hosp , 40,61,78 | |
| ICU , 52,65,81 | |
| death, 45,75,88 | |
| ***************************************************** |