Presidential Predictions

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Presidential Predictions

I remember hearing about the Curse of Tippecanoe [1] back in 5^th grade
during the 1980 Presidential campaign, and so far, it was eerily accurate as
a prediction of Presidential deaths while in office.

That is, until Ronald Reagan in 1981 [2] (and unbeknownst to me, George W.
Bush also survived an attempt [3]).

So it was amazing when I came across An Algorithm for Determining the Winners
of U.S. (United States) Presidential Elections [4] (link via The Old New
Thing [5]) that has correctly predicted every Presidential election.

Every one.

And it's so easy you can put it in a spread sheet.

So, I decided to see who currently has the best shot at becoming the next
President of the United States. I found a list of current Presidential
candidates [6] and applied the formula.

Table: Presidential electability of the candidates for President in 2008
Name Pres. Rep. Gov. Other Total
------------------------------
Democratic Candidates (*has not officially filed)
Joe Biden [7] 0 0 0 0
Chris Doss [8] 0 0 0 Child of Senator, Divorced 0
John Edwards [9] 0 0 0 0
Mike Gravel [10] 0 0 0 0
Dennis Kucinich [11] 0 12 0 Divorced -98
Barack Obama [12] 0 0 0 0
Tom Vilsack [13] 0 0 8 88
Hiliary Clinton [14]* 0 0 0 0
Bill Richardson [15]* 0 14 6 80
Republican Candidates (*has not officially filed)
Sam Brownback [16] 0 2 0 2
John H. Cox [17] 0 0 0 0
Duncan Hunter [18] 0 28 0 28
Mitt Romney [19] 0 0 4 First Mormon -66
Michael Smith [20] 0 0 0 0
John Gilmore [21]* 0 4 0 44
Rudy Giuliani [22]* 0 0 0 Divorced, Special Prosecutor -220
Mike Huckabee [23]* 0 8 0 88
John McCain [24]* 4 0 0 Divorced -106
Ron Paul [25]* 20 0 0 20
Tom Tancredo [26]* 10 0 0 First Evangelical -100
Tommy Thompson [27]* 0 4 0 44
Libertarian Candidates
Steve Kubby [28] 0 0 0 0
George Phillies [29] 0 0 0 0
Christine Smith 0 0 0 0

------------------------------
Name Pres. Rep. Gov. Other Total
But it's a total score of both the Presidential and Vice-Presidential
candidates that win, not just the Presidential candidate (so there's a small
outside chance that Giuliani could win, if he could find a Vice-Presidential
candidate who is a corporate banker, president of a college and the child of
a US (United States) Senator). I also think it's too early to really tell who
will win at this stage; I'll know more after the caucuses and primaries of
next year.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_Tippecanoe
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reagan_assassination_attempt
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Bush#Assassination_attempt
[4] https://web.archive.org/web/20071004060523/http://members.bellatlantic.net/~vze3fs8i/air/Elections.htm
[5] http://blogs.msdn.com/oldnewthing/archive/2007/02/08/1627788.aspx
[6] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008
[7] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden
[8] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Dodd
[9] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Edwards
[10] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Gravel
[11] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Kucinich
[12] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama
[13] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Vilsack
[14] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Rodham_Clinton
[15] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Richardson
[16] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Brownback
[17] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_H._Cox
[18] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duncan_Hunter
[19] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney
[20] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Charles_Smith
[21] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Gilmore
[22] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudy_Giuliani
[23] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Huckabee
[24] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_McCain
[25] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Paul
[26] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Tancredo
[27] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_Thompson
[28] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Kubby
[29] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Phillies

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