* * * * *

 Obstensibly to collaboratively edit documents anywhere, but in reality, the
       new paradigm in software distribution, installation and upgrades

> What does Writely do?
>
> Writely allows you to edit documents online with whomever you choose, and
> then publish and blog them online.
>

Via Ceejbot [1], “Writely Help Center [2]”

Yup, a word processor you use via your web browser. Google also has a
spreadsheet [3] and calendar program [4]. And of course, who can forget Gmail
[5].

About the only thing missing is a Powerpoint clone.

So what's with all this web based office productivity software? Or even sites
like Flickr [6]? I see this as the confluence of three things happening at
once.

First off, in most cases, it's cheaper to ship a program via wire than it is
via a disk. A producer does not need to invest in a ton of phyical material
and the equipment to copy the bits to said physical material, nor does it
need to invest in boxes, paper, postage and shipping. Of two programs sold at
the same price, one only through a website, and one only through a retail
chain, the company selling the program via the website will experience a
higher profit margin than the company selling via the retain chain (in fact,
about the only time shipping bits via a disk is cheaper is when the program
being sold is of sufficient size that it would take longer to ship it via
wire than by FedEx [7]).

Second off, a producer of commerical software is under attack from three
different fronts. First are the software pirates, that sell illegal copies of
software at dirt cheap prices (why not? They didn't have to spend any money
developing it, and copying bits are cheap cheap cheap). The more popular the
software is, the more likely it'll be pirated. Software producers do have
some recourse in organizations like the BSA (Business Software Alliance) [8],
which, on the behalf of software companies, can levy hefty fines on
corporations (and to a lesser degree, individuals) that haven't properly
licensed the software they use, but in emerging markets like China, there
isn't much a US (United States) or even Europoean software company can do.

The second front is the relunctance of customers to actually order and
install upgrades. It's not like there's a vast difference between Microsoft
Word 97 and Microsoft Word 2000 (much less Microsoft Word 2003) to warrent
the price of an upgrade. Especially when upgrades can be disruptive (not
always, but there are times when it is [9]). Let's face it, the largest
competeter to Microsoft is Microsoft of three years ago.

The third front is open source. There are more and more free (as in beer)
alternatives to the major software packages and they are improving. And while
they might not be able to compete at a high professional level (the GIMP [10]
vs. Photoshop [11]? No contest: Photoshop. On price? The GIMP) but for most
people, the free alternatives are Good Enough™.

And the third confluence relates to open source. There are several open
source licenses out there, and one, the GNU General Public License [12], will
tend to drive the actual purchase price of software towards zero. Also,
companies that release programs licended under the GNU (GNU's Not Unix) GPL
(General Public License) are required to make the source code available at
nominal charge, to those that have bought and used said program (heck, even
if you just use one library licended under the GNU GPL you have to make the
rest of your source code available in most cases). So it's a bit more
difficult to make money using open source.

Google (along with other companies like Yahoo [13], who own Flickr [14] and
Six Apart [15], who own VOX [16]) have found a way around these problems.
There's no software to actually ship, since it all runs on computers owned
and operated by the respective companies and all are accessed via the web.
Second, there's no issues of customers not upgrading because the customers
don't install the software to begin with. They can leverage the vast amount
of code available as open source and by being careful to avoid any GNU GPL
libraries, they can avoid having to give out the source code. Revenue can
come via advertising, or by offering access to more functionality (much like
LiveJournal [17]).

And hey, if it causes Microsoft fits, so much the better.

[1] http://snippy.ceejbot.com/wiki/show/start/2006/08/19/001
[2] http://www.google.com/support/writely/bin/answer.py?answer=37369&to
[3] http://spreadsheets.google.com/
[4] http://www.google.com/calendar
[5] http://www.gmail.com/
[6] http://www.flickr.com/
[7] http://www.fedex.com/
[8] http://www.bsa.org/globalhome.cfm
[9] gopher://gopher.conman.org/0Phlog:2006/08/11.1
[10] http://www.gimp.org/
[11] http://www.adobe.com/products/photoshop/
[12] http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/gpl.html
[13] http://www.yahoo.com/
[14] http://www.flickr.com/
[15] http://www.sixapart.com/
[16] http://www.vox.com/
[17] http://www.livejournal.com/

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