SUBJECT: THE EXTRATERRESTRIAL HYPOTHESIS (ETH) FILE: UFO2693
From UFOs and the Limits of Science by Ronald D. Storey c. 1981
Reproduced for educational purposes only.
The Extraterrestial Hypothesis (ETH)
By far the most popular "theory" concerning the origin of UFOs, the ETH
is also the one that over the years has aroused the most emotion and
controversy. It is based on the assumption that one or more
civilizations from outer space, far in advance of our own, have
mastered interstellar space flight and have had the human race under
systematic observation since at least 1947. SOme see a long-term
involvement by the extraterrestials and propose that they have been
watching over man and perhaps even controlling his physical and
cultural development for millennia, thus linking the ETH to the ancient
astronaut concept.
The main problem with the ETH is space and time, space in the sense
that the average distance between the 130 billion or more stars in our
Milky Way Galaxy is enormous, and time in the sense that these great
distances would make an interstellar voyage very long. Then there are
the economic, engineering, and motivational aspects of such an
enterprise.
Despite this, there is a pro-UFO movement which uncritically believes
in the ETH. There is no problem with such a belief, provided it is
identified as such and is not construed as representing an empiracal
fact. At the same time, the idea of an extraterrestial origin for UFOs
as a hypothesis is quite reasonable, despite the strong feelings
against the possibility by many scientists who should know better.
The real basis for the ETH debate, although many involved in the debate
are seemingly unaware of it, is not whether (or how much) advanced
intelligence exists in the galaxy. Most scientists will agree that
there are probably many such intelligent civilizations in the galaxy.
It is not even whether such civilizations have developed interstellar-
travel capability. The real point of debate concerns the "volume of
traffic." That is, most scientists find it very difficult to accept the
idea of extraterrestial visitation on the scal implied by UFO reports;
that, to them, tends to invalidate all UFO reports. In fact, if UFO
sightings were not so common (say, just one good report every three or
four years), perhaps more scientists would seriously consider the ETH.
Interestingly, this is precisely the reverse of what many exasperated
UFO proponents believe; hence, their attempts to "prove" the ETH by the
sheer numbers of reports.
Despite intensive research by many individuals, scientific bodies, and
federal agencies for more than three decades, no proof of
extraterrestial visitation has been produced. Such an idea, therefore,
must remain as only a viable and intriguing hypothesis, very difficult
to test and frustrating to debate.
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