SUBJECT: THE PARANET/HYNEK RATING SYSTEM FILE: UFO2191
The ParaNet/Hynek Rating System was developed in order to provide
investigators and other interested parties with a point of departure, a
thumbnail sketch of how "good" or how "important" a particular report is, and
how it relates to other reports in the database.
It is a simple system, based on a matrix first proposed by Dr. J. Allen Hynek
of Northwestern University, founder of the Center for UFO Studies (CUFOS). The
rating plots the strangeness of a case against its overall credibility, or the
"probability" that the event happened basically as described.
The strangeness of a case, or the degree of its departure from known
principles, is assigned a rating of from 1 to 5. The higher the rating, the
greater the departure.
Rating Meaning Examples
------ -------- --------
S1 Explained or explainable Meteor; Venus; Airplane; Balloon
S2 Probably explainable with more High altitude nocturnal light,
data little observed course deviation
S3 Possibly explainable, but with Same nocturnal light, but sudden
elements of strangeness zig-zag, then return to course.
S4 Strange; does not conform to Disk-shaped object seen in
known principles daylight.
S5 Highly strange; indicative of Daylight disk seen close-up;
intelligent guidance anomalous motion; entities
The "P" factor, or probability rating, is much harder to gauge. Witness
credibility is only a part of the picture. Quantity and quality of supporting
evidence, such as independent witnesses, photographs, etc. must also be taken
into account. Basically the "P" factor is an overall estimation, or averaging
of these factors. It, too, is calibrated from 1 to 5 as follows:
Rating Meaning Examples
------ ------- --------
P1 Not credible or sound; hoax String found in photo; known UFO
hoaxer or "flake"
P2 Suspicious; probable hoax Prodigious photos by lone witness;
no evidence where there should be
P3 Somewhat credible or indeterminate lone witness, no supporting
evidence; low-quality photo
P4 Credible; Sound multiple independent witnesses;
high-quality analyzed photo
P5 Highly credible; leaving almost Witness of high repute and/or ex-
no doubt pertise; live TV; quality video
It is tempting to rate one in terms of the other; that is, a high strangeness
case is, by nature, hard to believe, and therefore one is tempted to give it a
low "P" rating. The scientific method demands, however, that the data itself
should dictate the rating, despite our propensity to mistrust stories of
90-degree turns and 3-foot-tall grey men.
Hynek pointed out that 90% of all reports should fall in the range closest to
the two axes. High strangeness cases DO usually turn out to be of low quality
or even hoaxes; multiple reports of bright night-time objects seen over
hundreds of miles most often turn out to be low-strangeness bolides or
re-entering rockets. Obviously, it is the S4/P4's and above that are of
concern to us. These are the cases we point to when we speak of the UFO
phenomenon in the strict sense. It is these that science must answer for.
**********************************************
* THE U.F.O. BBS -
http://www.ufobbs.com/ufo *
**********************************************
