SUBJECT: THE 61-MONTH UFO WAVE-CYCLE THEORY                  FILE: UFO1593

PART 2



(418)   Thu 30 Jan 92 21:04
By: John Powell
To: Jerry Woody
Re: UFO Wave Theory, 2/2
----------------------------------------------------------------------
-+-------------------------------------------------------------------
                     A Revival of the 61-Month Wave Theory

                          by Donald A. Johnson, Ph.D.
                                P.O. Box 161
                          Kirkland, Washington 98033

          The Knowles family CE-II encounter with an ovoid-shaped
UFO
     on the Nullarbor Plateau in Western Australia January 20th was
     right on target in terms of time and place, according to the
     61-month wave cycle first proposed by Dr. David Saunders back
in
     1971.  At least two other UFO encounters of major importance
     occurred that same night in Australia and Tasmania.  If the
     indications are correct and this is not an isolated incident
but
     the beginnings of a major UFO wave, we will have to reconsider
     the significance of this long-term prediction in terms of our
     ability to predict and act upon the occurrence of this and
     future UFO waves.

          Dr. David Saunders first noticed the regularity in major
     American UFO waves (1947, 1952, 1957 and 1967) in the early
     months of 1971 while working with the UFOCAT computer catalog
at
     the University of Colorado.  He determined that what
     distinguished these UFO waves from other, possibly
     publicity-generated UFO waves, was the shape of their
     distributions.  These were waves of UFO reports in which the
     frequency of daily reports began building slowly, built to a
     crescendo, and then diminished rapidly.    These
     negatively-skewed UFO waves occurred with a periodicity of
five
     years, or more accurately 61-months, with an accuracy in peak
     prediction to within a day or so (1).

          Furthermore, another characteristic of these five-year
     waves was the progressively eastward movement of their loci of
     activity.  The first wave crested in July 1947 and occurred
     predominantly in the Pacific and Mountain States.  The 1952
wave
     reached its peak in late August 1952 with the majority of
     reports coming from Midwestern States.  Each successive wave
     appeared to move approximately 30 degrees east in longitude.
     The absence of a 1962 wave was accounted for by a search of
     South American references which revealed a Brazilian and
     Argentinian UFO wave in September, and the 1967 wave--which
     began on the Eastern seaboard of the United States--actually
     crested in November of that year in England.

          Saunders was able to make his first prediction that a
major
     UFO wave would occur in the vicinity of 30 degrees East
     longitude and peak in December 1972 over a year prior to its
     occurrence.  This prediction was borne out by the occurrence
of
     a UFO wave in South Africa in late November.  However, most
     ufologists lost interest in the theory when the predicted
waves
     for 1977-78 and 1983 failed to materialize (so far as we can
     tell).  Both of these waves should have occurred in countries
     controlled predominantly by governments unfriendly to the
West.
     Saunders continues to have faith in the theory and has
offered a
     consistent, convincing response to critics:  that it is unfair
     to judge the merits of the theory on what we may or may not
hear
     about from the Soviet Union.

          According to calculations (see table below), the next
great
     UFO wave should occur between now and the beginning of March,
     centered at 120 degrees East longitude.  The Nullarbor Plain
is
     at approximately 127 degrees East longitude.  The wave should
     also unfold in the same characteristic manner as the earlier
     waves, building slowly in intensity in the number of daily
     reports and diminishing rapidly after reaching a peak.

                                   Table 1

              The 61-Month Wave Cycle and Corresponding UFO Waves

     Predicted     Actual Peak      Predicted     Actual
      Date           Date           Longitude     Location

     July 1947     July 8, 1947       120o W     Northwestern U.S.
     Aug. 1952     Aug. 3, 1952        90o W     Central and
Eastern U.S.
     Sep. 1957     Aug. 21, 1957       60o W     Central and
Eastern U.S.
     Oct. 1962     Sep. 1962           30o W     Brazil
     Nov. 1967     Oct. 24, 1967        0o W     Atlantic, England
     Dec. 1972     Nov. 1972           30o E     South Africa
     Jan. 1978     ?                   60o E     ?
     Feb. 1983     ?                   90o E     ?
     Mar. 1988     Feb. 1988(?)       120o E     Australia(?)


          A corrollary to the Saunders' spatio-temporal wave theory
     is that physical evidence cases should occur at approximately
     the same time world-wide; thus, if the Australian close
     encounters continue to occur during the pre-dawn hours, we
     should expect U.S. CE-II cases to occur in the evening hours
     between 4 and 10 p.m., since the United States and Australia
     have a time difference of some 8 to 11 hours.

          We shall soon see if new evidence merits the revival of
     an old theory.


          (1) Saunders, D.R. (1976).  A spatio-temporal invariant
for
     major UFO waves.  In N. Dornbos (ed.), Proceedings of the 1976
     CUFOS Conference.  Evanston, IL:  Center for UFO Studies.
-+-------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks, take care.
John.

--- XRS! 4.50+
* Origin: Absence of Evidence is not Evidence of Absence (Quick
1:19/19.19)

 **********************************************
 * THE U.F.O. BBS - http://www.ufobbs.com/ufo *
 **********************************************