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From: [email protected] (Regional Warning Centre)
Newsgroups: aus.radio.amateur.misc,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info
Subject: IPS Daily Report - 15 August 99
Followup-To: aus.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.amateur.misc
Date: 15 Aug 1999 23:53:33 -0000
Organization: IPS Radio & Space Services.  Sydney, Australia.
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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 1999 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 131/85

GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
      Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+04
      Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
      Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+05 (normal)
      X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
            16 Aug             17 Aug             18 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   132/86             134/88             136/90

COMMENT: A jump in solar wind speed was observed at around 0948UT,
from 300 to 400 km/sec. Solar wind speed is currently mildly
elevated at 450km/sec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
  Australian Region       16   2223 4443
     Townsville           17   1233 4443
     Hobart               14   1223 4433
     Learmonth            16   2223 4443
     Canberra             17   2323 4443

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 AUG :
     Townsville            3
     Hobart                0
     Canberra             36
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the
Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum of 20 minute
pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
          Fredericksburg        12
          Planetary             10

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug :  A   K
          Fredericksburg         5
          Planetary              5   2112 1222


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Aug    12    Unsettled
17 Aug     9    Unsettled
18 Aug    16    Unsettled to active
COMMENT: A impulse was observed in the field around 1048UT, active
conditions observed after this time. Recurrence suggests that
active periods are probable during interval 19-21 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
                   Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
PCA Event : No Proton/PCA Event In progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
                   Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High
16 Aug      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal
17 Aug      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal
18 Aug      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair-normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
15 Aug    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
  Equatorial Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     15-20% Depressed to near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 124

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Aug    90    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Aug    90    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Aug    90    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions may have been experienced during
local night hours.
--
IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: [email protected]
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9210 8060