real y3=0.043;
path reduction=(M1,y3)--(M2,y3);
draw(reduction,Arrow,TrueMargin(0,0.5*(linewidth(Dotted)+linewidth())));
arrow(shift(-20,5)*Label(minipage("\flushleft{\begin{itemize}\item[1.]
Estimate proportion of birds surviving at end of season\end{itemize}}",100),
align=NNE),
(M1,S1),NNE,1cm,p,Arrow(NoFill));
arrow(shift(-24,5)*Label(minipage("\flushleft{\begin{itemize}\item[2.]
Read off initial mosquito abundance\end{itemize}}",80),align=NNE),
(M1,0),NE,2cm,p,Arrow(NoFill));
arrow(shift(20,0)*Label(minipage("\flushleft{\begin{itemize}\item[3.]
Determine desired bird survival for next season\end{itemize}}",90),align=SW),
(M2,S2),SW,arrowlength,p,Arrow(NoFill));
arrow(shift(8,-15)*Label(minipage("\flushleft{\begin{itemize}\item[4.]
Calculate required proportional reduction in mosquitoes\end{itemize}}",90),
align=NW),
point(reduction,0.5),NW,1.5cm,p,Arrow(NoFill));