Subj : Buffalo Sabres Underlying Numbers Show the Teams Bright Side
To   : All
From : The Hockey Writers - Main
Date : Fri Jan 29 2021 04:40 am


With a 3-3-1 record so far this season, you'd be hesitant to put money on the
Buffalo Sabres as a shoo-in to make the playoffs. But, there are some
indicators that make a case for the Blue and Gold being more competitive than
we might think. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Sabres are nipping at the
heels of the top teams in the league during 5-on-5 play in a few underlying
statistical categories that are typically predictive of success.

The team ranks third in the league in high-danger chance percentage (64.3%),
fourth in the league in expected goals percentage (57.4%) and eighth in overall
Corsi percentage (53.4%). The Sabres have been better than each of their first
seven opponents this year in the above categories except for once, when they
were outdone in shot attempts by the Philadelphia Flyers 51-49 during a 6-1
Buffalo win on Jan. 18. 

More often than not, Buffalo is in the attacking zone getting high-danger
chances and making shot attempts at the net. If they keep doing that, they are
more than likely to start potting a few more goals.�A Pair of Surprising
Sabres�

Meanwhile, a pair of Sabres defensemen - Rasmus Ristolainen and Jake McCabe -
now rank among the league's top 15 defenders in Corsi percentage. The two
currently have the 11th best possession numbers among all NHL defensive
pairings who have played at least 30 minutes together this season. 

The numbers don't lie!

Jake McCabe and Rasmus Ristolainen have been one of the @NHL's top pairs this
season. #LetsGoBuffalo pic.twitter.com/iKAQ3rvEZF- Buffalo Sabres
(@BuffaloSabres) January 27, 2021

Entering play on Wednesday, only the Edmonton Oilers' Ethan Bear and Darnell
Nurse have been on the ice for more even strength goals as a pair. Ristolainen
continues to impress this season. His goal on Jan. 15 versus the Washington
Capitals broke a tie with Bill Hajt for the 10th-most goals by a defenseman in
Sabres history. He now trails Tyler Myers and Jim Schoenfeld by two goals for
eighth-most. Ristolainen';s first assist on Jan. 24 versus the Capitals moved
him past Schoenfeld for the seventh-most career points recorded by a Sabres
defenseman. Rasmus Ristolainen, Buffalo Sabres (Amy Irvin / The Hockey
Writers)

And, fun fact: Ristolainen holds the franchise record for most overtime goals
by a defenseman with four and is tied ninth all-time among Sabres defensemen
with six game-winning goals.Goaltending Is Key

With the Sabres spending more time in the offensive zone, even a slight
improvement from starter Linus Ullmark could make a big difference for the
Sabres. The team';s save percentage numbers and lower-than-average shooting
percentage in comparison to the rest of the league stand in the way of turning
all that offensive zone time into goals for. Buffalo analyst Walter Zurowski of
@TheChargingBuff notes these two below average categories could correct to the
mean, pointing toward better results to come for the Sabres. Linus Ullmark,
Buffalo Sabres (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

It';s unclear if there are moves to be made for Buffalo to improve their
goaltending position, or if general manager Kevyn Adams would prefer to hit
pause and see what he has with Ullmark and Carter Hutton for a little bit
longer. All that aside, Ullmark is right up there among the top five
goaltenders in the league in one particular statistic.

With 27 saves on 32 career shots faced, Ullmark's shootout save percentage is
.844 - good enough for fourth all-time among NHL goaltenders who have faced at
least 20 shots. Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (.852) is the
only active goaltender ahead of Ullmark. During Sunday's 4-3 shootout win over
the Capitals, Ullmark stopped all three shooters. He now sits with a career
5-3 record in the shootout, third place all-time within the franchise behind
Ryan Miller (49) and Jhonas Enroth (10).Sabres Power Play Is Humming

In their games against the Capitals on Sunday (3-for-5), and the New York
Rangers on Tuesday (2-for-4), the Sabres scored five power-play goals. Entering
play Wednesday, the Sabres have had a league-high seven different players
score at least one goal on the power play, led by Victor Olofsson's two. Jack
Eichel sits tied for second in the league with five power-play points. The
team';s power play is currently ranked eighth in the league, going 8-for-26 so
far this season (30.8%). Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres (Amy Irvin / The Hockey
Writers)

Buffalo has been playing with discipline as of late, which if it keeps up, can
only help the cause. Entering play Wednesday, the Sabres have been the
least-penalized team in the NHL, with only 4:25 of penalty time on average per
game. Buffalo has drawn 28 penalties so far from their opponents and have only
taken 14 taken, giving them the best penalty differential in the league.

The post Buffalo Sabres'; Underlying Numbers Show the Team';s Bright Side
appeared first on The Hockey Writers.

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