Subj : Biggest Crash Ever!
To : Gerhard Strangar
From : Lee Lofaso
Date : Mon Apr 20 2020 06:41 pm
Hello Gerhard,
>>> Now that's wild guessing, but we might see up to 80% infected, which
>>> would be 6 billion people.
> LL> The numbers are known in regards to the Spanish Flu.
> LL> Based on the same numbers (adjusted for increased population)
> LL> and time frame allows for a well-qualified educated guess.
>
>Not really. How many people flew the flu around the world in 1918? With an
> incubation time of two days, crossing the ocean in more than five is quite
> a good protection.
According to Trump, there were airports during the Revolutionary War.
Certainly by 1918 trans-Atlantic flights would have become routine ...
On a more serious note, the Spanish Flu was in full swing during
WWI, but the focus of everybody's attention was on the war, almost
as if there was no pandemic.
The main mode of transport in 1918 was by boat, rather than by
plane, to cross the oceean. But transmission is by respiratory
droplets, mainly person to person. Being next to someone who
has it while in the trenches fighting a war is not a good place
to be.
>>>Wen can "flatten the curve" one time and make it last longer, however,
>>>people might then get SARS-Cov-19 and a future SARS-Cov-20 at the same
>>>time.
>LL>Ha! You just made the same mistake the US President's top advisor
>LL>Kellyanne Conway made, thinking COVID-20 is the same as COVID-19.
>LL>The number 19 is when the novel coronavirus was discovered, short
>LL>for 2019. There is no COVID-20, as that would be another novel
>LL>coronavirus in which a different vaccine would be needed.
>
>That's what a tried to express using the word "future", yet another - so
> far unknown - new variant. If "the experts" say that 70% aof the population
> get it, that would be almost 60 million in Germany. If kept trying to keep
> it below 6,000 infections per day, it would take more than 27 years.
> Imagine the SARS-CoV from 2002 and a "flatten the curve" until 2029. Or
> would it be 2045, because of an additinal flattening of MERS-CoV and now
> 2060 due to the additional SARS-CoV-2?
Herd immunity threshhold will be reached way before 27 years.
But how long would such immunity last? Could be only a few weeks.
Could be longer. Nobody really knows. In any event, it would be
a weak immunity, not nearly as effective as a vaccine, which would
kill it.
>>>What are we going to do then, shut down the economy "twice as much"?
>LL>With everybody dead I do not believe anybody will be worried about
>LL>the economy.
>
>SARS-CoV-1 killed 10% of the infected people, MERS-CoV killed 37%.
>SARS-CoV-2 isn't anywhere close to that.
Both were contained. Not the novel coronavirus, which is out in
the open creating havoc everywhere.
The USA has a third of the 2.3 million COVID-19 cases around the
globe - but only 4.2% of the Earth's population. The USA also has
the highest number of deaths due to COVID-19 than any country.
750,000 cases and 40,000 deaths as of 4/19/2020 in USA alone.
That is roughly one-third of all global cases/deaths.
Imagine what the final tally will be when this is all over ...
--Lee
--
Change Is Cumming
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