Subj : Pandemic
To : Dale Shipp
From : Lee Lofaso
Date : Sun Mar 22 2020 08:57 pm
Hello Dale,
>LL>What will be needed is field hospitals, using tents as rooms.
>LL>And converting hospital beds to ICU beds. Otherwise, it will
>LL>be a lost cause.
>
>I saw in the news tonight that a county in Washington state is
>converting an empty soccer field into a 200 bed hospital. More of that
>sort of thing will be needed (but that is not all that is needed by any
>means).
Whatever works. Not just outdoor or indoor places that can be
used as hospitals, but also the need for more doctors, nurses, and
other health care professionals. Plus the masks, gowns, etc. they
need to work with.
>LL>To give you an idea as to how many test kits are available,
>LL>just look at the numbers. The state of Louisiana has four and
>LL>a half million people. The highest number of tests it has been
>LL>able to do is 172. A total of 669 tests over 7 days.
>
>LL>Look at total tested and total cases -
>
>LL>Total tested - 805 over 8 days
>LL>Total positive - 347 over 8 days
>
>LL>That is rate fast approaching 50%.
>
>That sounds like they are only testing people who are already showing
>signs of infection.
There are not enough tests anywhere. Which means this approach
is deeply flawed. Not only that, but testing only those who are
showing symptoms gives a false number of who and where the most
numbers of infections are.
The only way to find out where the most number of infections
are occurring is to have random samples around the country, with
samples taken from everyone regardless of who is and who is not
already showing signs of infection.
South Korea tested 200,000+ people while the USA tested less
than 1,000. That is how far behind the curve the USA is. The
state of Louisiana is in the same boat as all other states.
However, because the state of New York has more test kits, it
can test more people. And it is testing only those who are showing
signs of infection. Therefore, the numbers of reported positives
are higher in New York state than anywhere else in the country.
Larry Brilliant explains this in an interview in "Wired" magazine.
>LL>Think about how many folks who have the coronavirus who
>LL>have never been tested. And might never get tested.
>
>In some areas of mass testing in Europe, about half of the people who
>tested positive showed no symptoms.
The novel coronavirus is a new virus. That means nobody in this
world of 7.8 billion people has immunity. Pandemics end when the
virus does not have enough susceptible people to infect.
What happens is when enough people get the bug there just aren't
enough susceptible people to keep the bug going.
A vaccine is at least 18 to 24 months away. If a vaccine can
be found. It usually takes about 10 years to find a vaccine, if
a vaccine can be found. Many viruses mutate, which is why even
two years may be wishful thinking.
Three things need to have happened in order for this pandemic
to end, according to Brilliant.
* We need to figure out whether this virus looks like an iceberg
- 1/7th above the water - or a pyramid, where we see the whole thing.
* We have a treatment that works, a vaccine or antiviral.
* Most important - we begin to see large numbers of people -
especially nurses, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers
who have the disease - are immune, and have tested them to
know. And we have a system that identifies them - a concert
wristband or a card with photo and some kind of stamp on it.
The virus is an equal opportunity infector.
We need to be certified safe.
Cannot buy or sell without the number and/or mark of the beast.
--Lee
--
We're Great In Bed
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