Subj : Pandemic
To : Dan Cross
From : Lee Lofaso
Date : Thu Mar 19 2020 11:25 pm
Hello Dan,
>LL>>In Italy it went through the roof once they ran out of hospital space
> and
>LL>>could no longer effectively treat people. 1% is about right for the US.
>LL>
>LL>You think so? You really think so?
>
>Yes, I do. As long as we can keep the number of occupied
>hospital beds below the threshold, we'll maintain that
>rate. The unfortunate reality, however, is that we're
>unlikely to be able to do that, so our mortality rate will
>also spike.
Wishful thinking. The numbers presented are based on the
total number of beds, all empty beds with none occupied.
The real numbers show that hospitals are two-thirds full,
with many cases of seasonal flu.
What will be needed is field hospitals, using tents as rooms.
And converting hospital beds to ICU beds. Otherwise, it will
be a lost cause.
To give you an idea as to how many test kits are available,
just look at the numbers. The state of Louisiana has four and
a half million people. The highest number of tests it has been
able to do is 172. A total of 669 tests over 7 days.
Look at total tested and total cases -
Total tested - 805 over 8 days
Total positive - 347 over 8 days
That is rate fast approaching 50%.
Think about how many folks who have the coronavirus who
have never been tested. And might never get tested.
Along with the inability to test more than just a handful
of the total population.
>As I said earlier, the IFR (Infection-fatality rate) varies
>across healthcare systems. As jacked up as our system is,
>our actual standard of care is very good (if accessible).
>Until it gets overwhelmed, the IFR in the US will remain
>around 1%.
The population of Madrid is already 80% infected.
The population of Italy is almost 70% infected.
The population of Germany is expected to hit close to 70% infected.
I fully expect the US to be 80% infected, with 15% severe, half
of whom will die. That is 20 million dead Americans, before the
end of this year.
You still think we're gonna have a presidential election?
Just think of the new jobs program that the next administration
will create. No, you do not really want to think about that ...
--Lee
--
We Make Your Wet Dreams Come True
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