_______ __ _______ | |
| | |.---.-..----.| |--..-----..----. | | |.-----..--.--.--..-----. | |
| || _ || __|| < | -__|| _| | || -__|| | | ||__ --| | |
|___|___||___._||____||__|__||_____||__| |__|____||_____||________||_____| | |
on Gopher (inofficial) | |
Visit Hacker News on the Web | |
COMMENT PAGE FOR: | |
OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D | |
rwallace wrote 13 hours 59 min ago: | |
Looking through the latest 'Who's Hiring' thread last week, I noticed | |
that a higher percentage of the remote jobs seemed to specify Remote | |
(US). Could one of the causes of that, have been employers reading | |
ahead and making decisions on the basis that this bill might be passed? | |
Or is there some other reason? Or is it just a case where it fluctuates | |
randomly from month to month, and I am trying to read pattern into | |
random noise? | |
ksec wrote 1 day ago: | |
May be a Naive Question: Has there ever been a time, where Tech or | |
Software companies have to pay tax even when they are un-profitable. | |
And if not, given the historic low interest rate, why not borrow and | |
continue to grow until the company can no longer manage to spend all | |
your debt? Correct me if I am wrong I think that used to be the | |
playbook for Amazon. | |
There are companies which I dont understand why they are keeping all | |
the profits and not reinvesting for R&D or other purposes. I must be | |
missing an angle on this. Apart from investors, what else would it be? | |
bjoli wrote 1 day ago: | |
I'm not really that into US politics, but to me this bill seems like a | |
gargantuan transfer of wealth to already wealthy people. How does this | |
land with the people who voted for Trump outside of the traditional | |
republicans? Can they finance it without raising the debt ceiling? | |
qiine wrote 1 day ago: | |
Humans play games to learn, the more AI do the same the better they | |
will get | |
bgnn wrote 1 day ago: | |
So US will continue subsidizing its R&D while complaining the rest of | |
the world is doing so? What changed then? | |
trollbridge wrote 18 hours 7 min ago: | |
Itâs not a subsidy. They just are letting people immediately | |
expense R&D instead of requiring it spread over 5 years. | |
Spivak wrote 21 hours 43 min ago: | |
Our glorious R&D subsidies, their savage market manipulation. | |
bongodongobob wrote 1 day ago: | |
If you're going to subsidize anything why wouldn't it be R&D | |
bgnn wrote 1 day ago: | |
There's nothing inherently wrong with it. Though it creates a | |
competitive advantage and forces other countries to do the same, of | |
not more. Everyone starts pointing fingers at each other and | |
imposing tariff at the end. | |
Plus this puts pressure on manufacturing, as they will not be able | |
to compete. So yeah, as a tool to boost knowledge economy it works | |
but is it objectively a good thing to do I don't know. | |
aaronblohowiak wrote 17 hours 32 min ago: | |
why wouldn't r&d count as an expense? why do amortization | |
schedules constitute a subsidy? | |
pavlov wrote 1 day ago: | |
Is there a more bizarre legislative process anywhere in the world? | |
The US Congress is practically able to pass only a single giant bill | |
every year. To work around its own deficit rules, these bills are | |
packed with taxation time bombs where rules have expiration dates or | |
delayed starts several years in the future. | |
Then, if Congress doesnât get around to defusing its own time bombs, | |
you get situations like this R&D expensing fiasco where American | |
businesses and employees pay the price. Unless the bomb is hopefully | |
retroactively cancelled, like happened now. | |
On top of this madness, thereâs an executive branch operating like a | |
runaway autocracy, producing a flood of executive orders that | |
intentionally flaunt laws and even target specific private entities | |
(e.g. Trumpâs attacks on law firms that worked for his opponents, and | |
universities he doesnât like). | |
How long can a nation function like this? If the bond market loses | |
faith in this process, there could be mayhem. Will be interesting to | |
see if the passage of BBB impacts US debt when markets open again on | |
Monday. | |
andrekandre wrote 9 hours 50 min ago: | |
> taxation time bombs where rules have expiration dates or delayed | |
starts several years in the future. | |
> ... | |
> Unless the bomb is hopefully retroactively cancelled, like | |
happened now. | |
this is by design: the opposition usually get into power in midterms | |
and next presidency can swap parties, so if there is a bad provision | |
its moved out to "explode" when they aren't in power and hurt the | |
oppositions continuing chances | |
as an example, the cuts to medicade don't start until right after the | |
next midterms (which most are expecting to strongly favor democrats) | |
[0] | |
[0] | |
[1]: https://ccf.georgetown.edu/2025/05/27/medicaid-and-chip-cuts... | |
jayd16 wrote 16 hours 36 min ago: | |
The unserious and corrupt are consistently rewarded with re-election. | |
I really have no idea how we move forward. | |
Sammi wrote 13 hours 50 min ago: | |
Get rid of the First Past the Post voting system. Almost all the | |
brokenness of US politics is downstream from FPTP. It incentivates | |
divisiveness instead of collaboration and consensus, which a better | |
voting system would. | |
sn9 wrote 8 hours 55 min ago: | |
Divisiveness as well as strategically voting for the "lesser of | |
two evils" compared to voting for your ideal choice. | |
It should honestly be banned for any election and primary across | |
the country and be replaced with approval voting or Condorcet | |
methods or something else that are strict improvements. | |
kzrdude wrote 20 hours 7 min ago: | |
It's a year of very rapid change. I just realized the other week | |
(naively) that we (non-US) should really be bracing even more than we | |
are. For shocks to come, economical, cultural as a reaction to the | |
slide towards an authoritarian presidential system. | |
It's not a time to be watching though, but to act. | |
kevin_thibedeau wrote 1 day ago: | |
Congress has transformed from a body of civil servants working toward | |
a common goal to a bunch of solipsist narcissists happy to burn | |
everything down for more face time in the beltway media echo chamber. | |
rendaw wrote 1 day ago: | |
There's something I didn't get about the discourse about this, maybe | |
someone can explain. The tax change greatly affected small | |
businesses/startups with unstable revenue, right? But companies like | |
Amazon, Google, etc are much more established companies with | |
diversivied, stable revenue and longer term planning I'd assume - so it | |
doesn't seem like this should have affected them as much. | |
The popular story currently is that the massive layoffs were due to the | |
tax/accounting change, but in that case why the big players like Amazon | |
etc have so many layoffs? Or is that the popular story because, while | |
Amazon etc are large, by total employee count most people are employed | |
at smaller business that were more affected by this? | |
Or was the FAANG stuff actually AI after all? The tax change story | |
sounds more plausible to me but I can't connect everything. | |
pm90 wrote 21 hours 37 min ago: | |
Its a combination of factors. The end of ZIRP made raising money more | |
expensive and the tax change made hiring Software Engineers more | |
expensive. Small businesses faced existential challenges and cut | |
back, so now there was less demand from them. Then Big Tech realized | |
they needed to layoff to post better numbers to continue boosting | |
their stock (even though they made enough revenue) so started cutting | |
jobs. | |
With this change one of those factors has been eliminated, so we will | |
see startups/small businesses become a lot more competitive. | |
phtrivier wrote 1 day ago: | |
It was floated a few weeks ago they this tax break's disappearance was | |
responsible for mass lay offs in tech. | |
Other theory were AI and interest rates. | |
I'm pretty sure next rounds of layoffs will have another "good reason". | |
Personally, I'm still partial to my pet and hard to document theory of | |
"when headcounts go down, share prices go up - and past a certain size | |
and age, the goal of a massive corporation is not to build things any | |
more, but to pay for retirements through the resale / buybacks of | |
shares" | |
But, hey, BBB is singed, so everything will be awesome soon, I suppose | |
? | |
grumple wrote 1 day ago: | |
This tax issue (not a break - normally you can count employees as a | |
businesss expense for the current year, this made software unusual) | |
meant that startups or other tech companies were extremely | |
disadvantaged in the short term, and had to pay way more in taxes | |
than they should have. For startups, having to pay far more in taxes | |
during the first few years of existence is crippling. | |
This fixes that problem. That encourages both investment in software | |
and encourages software companies to hire. | |
empathy_m wrote 1 day ago: | |
Hey hey, maybe it will help job stability. | |
Gergely Orosz, whose writing is influential in tech spheres and fun | |
to read, has been a loud proponent of the theory that TCJA's | |
elimination of the immediate expense of R&D research cost was the | |
skeleton key explaining technology sector layoffs. | |
It seems to me to that many technology-industry trends are driven by | |
vibes: | |
* People seem to love reading articles in any kind of media source | |
about their company's products and are remarkably credulous of them / | |
influenced by their content. Not just PR generating roundup reports | |
of media coverage, this is also engineers and leaders who follow any | |
coverage of their firms quite closely. | |
* There really does seem to be a sort of contagion effect with | |
layoffs where, once one firm began doing it, everyone did | |
(layoffs.fyi has a lot of data supporting this kind of hypothesis) | |
* Among founders and engineering leaders, there does seem to be a | |
common set of ideas - not just the group-chat consensus that helped | |
kill SVB, but just an overall whisper network of facts that everyone | |
knows is true - which guide their choices. | |
Overall it seems reasonable for software-industry employees to hope a | |
narrative takes hold like "we had to lay off lots of people because | |
their headcount didn't pencil out during the annual FP&A cycle under | |
the new TCJA R&D rules, but now that the new law has restored | |
immediate R&D expensing the formula is going to make the opaque | |
headcount number higher, and jobs will be more stable". The idea | |
might even become true if enough people believe it. | |
Personally I think the layoffs are better explained by another | |
phenomenon, superpersuasion from AI. (My niche view is that the first | |
superpersuader success story was when the chatbots convinced business | |
leaders to reallocate resources to buying more GPUs and LLM tokens | |
and lower investment in the rest of their lines of business.) | |
CraigJPerry wrote 1 day ago: | |
Could this transfer enough money to mint a person as the first | |
trillionaire? | |
Econ 101: A government deficit increases the net financial worth of the | |
private sector. | |
The US usually increases the net financial worth of the private sector | |
by around $2tn per year, OBBB should move that to around $3tn per year | |
(CBO estimate [1] ) | |
If you accumulate a dollar per second in net worth, then you become: | |
A millionaire in 11 days | |
A billionaire in 32 years | |
A trillionaire in 32,000 years | |
Obviously an indiscriminate increase in money without a corresponding | |
increase in output will show up in inflation. | |
So it's a wealth transfer, from those whose financial affairs will | |
remain comparatively static (your dollar will be worth less via | |
inflation) to those who can capture the new money streams. | |
[1]: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61486 | |
charlieyu1 wrote 1 day ago: | |
This bill is so random. The poker world is going doom and gloom when | |
BBB limits the amount of gambling loss deductibles to 90% of gambling | |
wins. | |
phtrivier wrote 1 day ago: | |
Remember when we software engineers painfully learned to _not_ do | |
massive releases with hundred of changes that are guaranteed to | |
create bugs ? | |
Well, imagine if instead we were _incentivized_ to create lots of | |
bugs in huge releases, because it helped us ship that one important | |
feature that the PM wanted in the middle of the garbage - and also, | |
that we were guaranteed never to have to debug the software ever, and | |
god forbid, to use it ? | |
archagon wrote 1 day ago: | |
Oh, goody! | |
Also, ICE has a bigger budget now than most of the world's | |
militaries[1]. But let's not talk about that. | |
[1] | |
[1]: https://www.newsweek.com/immigration-ice-bill-trump-2093456 | |
perihelions wrote 1 day ago: | |
That (initially) $175 billion/year will pay for itself in forced | |
labor. I think most countries with large-scale systems of | |
concentration camps converged on that solution, when the costs of | |
those systems ballooned into something unsustainable. | |
Modern China has that. Their system makes use of their (reportedly | |
millions) of incarcerated Uyghurs as low-skill forced labor, mainly | |
in textiles/clothes. Few talk about it, but a significant fraction of | |
Western clothing comes out of these camps. | |
The 1940's Germans were efficient: in extremis, they realized you | |
could optimize value from concentration camps by starving the workers | |
to death, extracting value from the final months of their lives with | |
minimal operating costs. That was "extermination through labor". | |
Hacker News, being what it is, will be most focused on the impact on | |
their 401k's. Their grandchildren will read these comments. | |
archagon wrote 14 hours 8 min ago: | |
The fact that this is downvoted is deeply disturbing. Timothy | |
Snyder has similar thoughts on concentration camp labor: [1] | |
Meanwhile, SV darling Curtis Yarvin is plainly insinuating that we | |
should bring slavery back: [2] What in the fuck is wrong with | |
people? | |
[1]: https://snyder.substack.com/p/concentration-camp-labor | |
[2]: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:gqqqg5xi4p2x4bfgphr7akip/... | |
lunar-whitey wrote 10 hours 17 min ago: | |
It is important to understand that the methods selected for the | |
âFinal Solutionâ were intended to minimize costs. It is | |
dangerous for crime at this scale to become cheap. | |
The experience of the Einsatzgruppen in Poland showed that mass | |
execution with guns used too much material and was too stressful | |
for the perpetrators. Camps allowed operational costs to be | |
amortized while individual responsibility was diffused. | |
saubeidl wrote 1 day ago: | |
An organization of goons who grab people off the street and disappear | |
them to concentration camps? Why does that sound so familiar? | |
Capitalists have always been involved in the rise of fascist | |
movements. | |
drstewart wrote 1 day ago: | |
>Why does that sound so familiar? | |
Probably because you've seen it repeated so much in your | |
hyper-propaganda bubble of reddit that you've started to believe it | |
myvoiceismypass wrote 1 day ago: | |
> Probably because you've seen it repeated so much in your | |
hyper-propaganda bubble of reddit that you've started to believe | |
it | |
I've seen it with my own eyes, no fucking thanks. | |
saubeidl wrote 1 day ago: | |
I am Austrian. My entire education was dedicated to the rise of | |
fascism and how it could happen and how to make sure it never | |
happens again. | |
I know what I'm seeing. | |
Don't believe me? What about subject matter experts that decided | |
to flee the country? [1] Or how about an excerpt from a book | |
written based on post-WW2 interviews of Germans? Does any of that | |
sound familiar at all? [2] > They say, âItâs not so badâ … | |
âYouâre seeing thingsâ or âYouâre an alarmist.�… | |
[...] | |
> "But the one great shocking occasion, when tens or hundreds or | |
thousands will join with you, never comes. Thatâs the | |
difficulty. If the last and worst act of the whole regime had | |
come immediately after the first and smallest, thousands, yes, | |
millions would have been sufficiently shockedâif, let us say, | |
the gassing of the Jews in â43 had come immediately after the | |
âGerman Firmâ stickers on the windows of non-Jewish shops in | |
â33. But of course this isnât the way it happens. In between | |
come all the hundreds of little steps, some of them | |
imperceptible, each of them preparing you not to be shocked by | |
the next. Step C is not so much worse than Step B, and, if you | |
did not make a stand at Step B, why should you at Step C? And so | |
on to Step D. | |
[1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/14/opinion/yale-canada-f... | |
[2]: https://press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/511928.htm | |
drstewart wrote 1 day ago: | |
> They say, âItâs not so badâ or âYouâre seei… | |
thingsâ or âYouâre an alarmist.â | |
Ah, well in that case, it's clear to me Austria is actually the | |
one on the brink of fascism. It's clear to me, having | |
extensively eaten a lot of strudel (makes me an expert in | |
Austria), that it's now a fascist country. | |
And if you say: âItâs not so badâ or âYouâre … | |
thingsâ or âYouâre an alarmist.â then clearly you'… | |
just in denial. | |
batty_alex wrote 1 day ago: | |
Really grabbing at straws to dismiss the evidence of your | |
eyes and ears here, huh? | |
saubeidl wrote 1 day ago: | |
"Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of | |
the absurdity of their replies. They know that their | |
remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are | |
amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is | |
obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in | |
words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even | |
like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous | |
reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their | |
interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since | |
they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to | |
intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, | |
they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some | |
phrase that the time for argument is past." - Jean Paul | |
Sartre. | |
saubeidl wrote 1 day ago: | |
You've lost me. I'm not sure what you're trying to say here, | |
could you rephrase your point in a more coherent way please? | |
But also, yes, Austria was on the brink of fascism not too | |
long ago. Our far-right party almost got to form a government | |
and their plans were quite sinister. | |
Thankfully, disaster was averted due to egos and greed - the | |
far-right and center-right couldn't agree on who gets to | |
pilfer to country more, so they didn't end up forming a | |
coalition. | |
AnthonyMouse wrote 1 day ago: | |
This argument has a problem: | |
> They say, âItâs not so badâ or âYouâre … | |
thingsâ or âYouâre an alarmist.â | |
It provides no way to distinguish between when the thing is | |
happening and when it isn't. If people say you're an | |
alarmist, by what mechanism do you evaluate whether they're | |
correct? | |
dambi0 wrote 1 day ago: | |
Which is just as true of the argument | |
> Probably because you've seen it repeated so much in | |
your hyper-propaganda bubble of reddit that you've | |
started to believe it | |
AnthonyMouse wrote 17 hours 22 min ago: | |
Except that argument admits a means to evaluate it. You | |
take the thing repeated ad nauseam and subject it to an | |
evidentiary requirement. Are people actually being held | |
without habeas corpus? Are people actually being | |
executed based on their ethnicity? If anything in this | |
nature is happening, has the rate of it significantly | |
increased recently or has it been going on for decades? | |
The last question is pretty important if your argument | |
is "Trump is a fascist and all we have to do is get him | |
out", because then that argument is erroneous and you | |
have to actually change the status quo instead of | |
returning to it. | |
saubeidl wrote 1 day ago: | |
And that is exactly the mechanism through which fascist | |
regimes keep resistance down and dissenters in a state of | |
self-doubt. | |
People like the guy accusing me of being | |
"hyper-propagandized" knowingly weaponize this | |
uncertainty to become willing enablers. | |
AnthonyMouse wrote 1 day ago: | |
You didn't actually answer the question. | |
It's like making the argument that denying an | |
accusation is evidence that it's true. It's rubbish | |
because people would also deny it if it was false. | |
FirmwareBurner wrote 23 hours 40 min ago: | |
>You didn't actually answer the question. | |
He never does. If you go through his comment history | |
all he does is shill for Germany and EU how they're | |
the best, and shit on Trump and the US how they're | |
the worst and that's it. He never has any arguments | |
beyond appeals to emotional manipulation of "look at | |
the fascists" based on fake or one sided articles. | |
Best treat him as a troll. | |
drstewart wrote 1 day ago: | |
Your entire argument boils to the fact that you live in | |
Austria and that makes you an expert on fascism and if | |
anyone tries to refute you then it immediately means | |
they're in denial. | |
Which is, of course, non-sensical. | |
dambi0 wrote 1 day ago: | |
That isn't true at all. Some of the argument relies on | |
the experience of an Austrian education, but we are also | |
encouraged to refer to other provided sources if we | |
choose to seek other opinions. | |
squarefoot wrote 1 day ago: | |
Italian here, and I know a few things about fascism not | |
just because of that. Yes, what is happening in the US is | |
the rise of a fascist state controlled by a small | |
minority of very wealthy and powerful people purely for | |
economical reasons with Trump being just a tool in their | |
hands. As with happened in my country back then, there | |
are only two possible reasons for endorsing it: being | |
part of the cult, or being part of the club. | |
That's why I stopped long ago any attempt at reasoning | |
with apologists. | |
drstewart wrote 13 min ago: | |
Your nationality is not a credential, I don't know why | |
Europeans can't understand this. | |
saubeidl wrote 1 day ago: | |
I never said I live in Austria. I don't. But having grown | |
up in Austria, the rise of fascism was the major theme of | |
my entire education. | |
xvector wrote 1 day ago: | |
Thank jeebus. | |
me551ah wrote 1 day ago: | |
I doubt if this will make much difference. Offshoring as a tactic | |
emerged in the pandemic when companies realised that being âremoteâ | |
works just as well. | |
Sure, foreign R&D still gets amortized over 15 years (NPV â59 % of a | |
full write-off, so you âloseâ ~8.6 % of your R&D spend in | |
present-value terms, and only 6.7 % of the cost is deductible in year | |
1, creating a 19.6 % cash-tax gap). | |
But offshore wages are often 50â70 % below U.S. rates: | |
⢠Even after the slower amortization drag, hiring at half the cost | |
nets you ~30 % total savings on R&D headcount. | |
⢠On a pure cash basis you only need ~20 % lower wages to break even; | |
most offshore markets easily exceed that. | |
⢠So the labor-cost arbitrage far outweighs the tax timing penalty | |
unless your foreign salaries are less than ~20 % below U.S. levels. | |
In short: the 15-year amort rule hurts your tax deduction, but 50 %+ | |
lower offshore wages more than make up for it. | |
dimal wrote 16 hours 52 min ago: | |
Wonât make much of a difference? To what?Youâre only talking | |
about whether to offshore or not. Not whether to HIRE or not. | |
Many companies simply wonât offshore core functions because doing | |
product development on your core product with a team in a different | |
time zone or from a very different culture often doesnât work. But | |
this will matter to companies that have laid off US engineers or | |
avoided hiring and now wonât have that extra tax burden. | |
throwaway2037 wrote 1 day ago: | |
> Offshoring as a tactic emerged in the pandemic when companies | |
realised that being âremoteâ works just as well. | |
I am confused by this comment. Offshoring IT work to India has been | |
going on since the early 2000s. The established model at many non | |
tech companies is a few people onshore talking with biz stakeholders, | |
then directing offshore staff. | |
bsenftner wrote 1 day ago: | |
Since I 90's, I remember it. | |
FartinMowler wrote 22 hours 33 min ago: | |
Yup, lots of Y2K work shipped offshore in the 90s while onshore | |
worked on the web boom. After Jan 1, 2000, mgmt thought, hey, how | |
can I use these cheap guys elsewhere. | |
bravesoul2 wrote 1 day ago: | |
Not convinced. Offshore has been possible since forever. Maybe IC cam | |
be remote now. Your team can be global. US lead, 2 India based devs, | |
2 brazil devs. But not having this wasn't a blocker for saving money. | |
10, 100 or 500 people team in India who could work in the office | |
together was possible forever. | |
It will change. I think once other countries become bigger investment | |
centres. Not sure how yet though. US is a good potting soil for a | |
startup because there is this huge addressable and free market. And | |
the startup ecosystem. Then add in that most startups want WFO and | |
minimum synced time zones... and for larger tech all that specialism | |
is in house in the US. | |
g0db1t wrote 1 day ago: | |
Yeah, there's simply a lot of 'Muricans thinking programming and | |
software dev. for some reason only can be done inside of the US. | |
As a EU senior dev I know zero senior devs making six figures pa - | |
Go figure | |
kevin_thibedeau wrote 1 day ago: | |
Six figures isn't special in the US for skilled tech workers. My | |
starting salary as a college grad 25 years ago was an | |
unremarkable $55K when dotcoms were slinging six figure salaries | |
and options. That is now $102K. | |
CalRobert wrote 1 day ago: | |
It's not the heady days of 2022 but six figures shouldn't be | |
impossible for someone with 10+ years of experience. But the | |
trick is to (mostly) ignore the European companies and go for the | |
American ones operating in Europe. Switzerland, Norway, and | |
Ireland can be decent too. | |
I'm still stunned when I see what devs are paid in Germany and | |
southern Europe though. | |
FirmwareBurner wrote 1 day ago: | |
>I'm still stunned when I see what devs are paid in Germany and | |
southern Europe though. | |
Are German wages really low? I thought Germany as the richest | |
country in Europe. | |
okanat wrote 15 hours 52 min ago: | |
Usually one earns half to a third of net wage in Germany | |
compared to East Coast US. A maximum of 100k total cash | |
compensation is usually the norm for mid-size companies. That | |
is for the most senior engineers. It is also taxed almost at | |
50%. | |
FirmwareBurner wrote 12 hours 49 min ago: | |
Isn't that the norm everywhere in Europe? | |
CalRobert wrote 1 hour 52 min ago: | |
Lots of countries are lower, especially in southern | |
Europe. | |
okanat wrote 11 hours 37 min ago: | |
Isn't what the norm? Europe is not the US. Each country | |
has its own living standards and completely different tax | |
laws. EU doesn't unify them. In Switzerland one pays much | |
less tax. In Netherlands it is possible to get 30% tax | |
break if you haven't lived there for more than 5 years. | |
Both the Netherlands and Switzerland pay higher wages | |
too. | |
CalRobert wrote 23 hours 21 min ago: | |
They seem much lower than, say, Ireland, Switzerland, Norway, | |
etc. Eastern and southern Europe are low but also lower cost | |
of living. A fraction of the US regardless. | |
FirmwareBurner wrote 18 hours 28 min ago: | |
I think you're only looking at big tech wages when you | |
compare with Ireland. Norway doesn't have much of a tech | |
industry. | |
disgruntledphd2 wrote 17 hours 9 min ago: | |
Yeah but there's lots and lots of no big tech US | |
companies in Ireland. They generally don't have much | |
equity or bonuses but the base is OK. I got 6 figures | |
from a bunch of them in Ireland so it's possible. | |
FirmwareBurner wrote 12 hours 48 min ago: | |
How much of that wage is left after taxes and Dublin | |
housing? | |
disgruntledphd2 wrote 2 hours 50 min ago: | |
Feck all, unfortunately. Like, if you either 1. buy a | |
house some years back or 2. get an off-books rental | |
through someone you know then you can do well. | |
Alternatively, if you work for one of the Big Tech | |
places then you'll get a really good wage (by irish | |
standards) as well as enough benefits to make you | |
feel a bunch better off. Additionally the bonuses and | |
equity there help a lot. | |
But yeah, Ireland's super expensive. Our household is | |
at about the 85% percentile income, and we have a | |
(small/expensive) house but we don't have a lot left | |
after all of our outgoings. | |
So yeah, you can get a better salary but you probably | |
won't have a whole lot more disposable income (but | |
apart from all that, ireland's a great place to | |
live). | |
CalRobert wrote 1 hour 48 min ago: | |
Yeah, we tried to hack this by buying a cheap place | |
in Offaly near the train and working remote, and it | |
was kinda-sorta OK except that our neighbours were | |
hell on Earth. Gave up and moved to the Netherlands | |
which has been great for our kids' independence. | |
I do miss a good snug though. | |
bravesoul2 wrote 1 day ago: | |
I think there is game theory at play. I don't think Google for | |
example is leaving money on the table. They hire worldwide of | |
course but they are not swapping US for cheaper countries on mass | |
and it must be for a good reason. Maybe it's a missed opportunity | |
and some YC company dominates the new arbitrage. Who knows! I | |
think I like the soil analogy. Moving the palm tree to another | |
spot is risky if it's doing well in its current soil. | |
eru wrote 1 day ago: | |
> Offshoring as a tactic emerged in the pandemic when companies | |
realised that being âremoteâ works just as well. | |
Offshoring is far older than the pandemic. | |
ozgrakkurt wrote 1 day ago: | |
It is delusional to think you get same quality work for 70% less | |
price. | |
klabb3 wrote 1 day ago: | |
If you work at FAANG and relocate from NYC/SF to a smaller | |
satellite office within the US, you can take a large pay cut. | |
Unless things have changed in the last few years, companies usually | |
pay location-based market rate. The lines are blurred with remote | |
work - which market are you really a part of? But there is nothing | |
magical that separates within the US from outside. | |
ozgrakkurt wrote 1 day ago: | |
Top engineers move to best pay location. For example best | |
engineers in europe etc. move to US or get similarly high | |
salaries in Europe. And having more high talent people in a | |
location creates a different culture. | |
There is ofc some difference but if you are taking averages you | |
will have much better engineers in a company based in nyc vs | |
berlin. | |
Iâm not an expert but this has been very apparent in places I | |
worked, US based companies just had a better work setup and | |
everything moved faster and with higher quality. | |
As an example, just saying an engineer is quarter the price in | |
Turkey so you can just outsource there is very foolish. It just | |
doesnât work that way, maybe in wet dreams of CEOs only. | |
Similar thing with LLMs, some people are salivating over how they | |
wonât need developers but it just isnât that way yet. | |
Seeing how hungry businesses are for outsourcing and hiring | |
remote, and seeing how it isnât really working that way should | |
be concrete proof for this. | |
whatevaa wrote 1 day ago: | |
It is not when ir comes to wages. People in other continent aren't | |
dumb, the overall wages are just lower. | |
whatshisface wrote 1 day ago: | |
It's not possible, really, to believe that markets are inefficient | |
enough to pay twice the price for something in one place as | |
another... | |
PaulDavisThe1st wrote 18 hours 24 min ago: | |
In all likelihood you lived through 2008, and yet you continue to | |
believe that market "efficiency" is somehow a builtin immutable | |
property of particular trading rules? | |
eric-burel wrote 1 day ago: | |
If I read properly this is explicitely targeting UE, Canada, UK and | |
other countries with high wages and R&D and software engineering | |
capabilities. | |
tossandthrow wrote 1 day ago: | |
Yep, seems like this is an opaque tarrif. | |
Other countries should use this when retaliating. | |
munch117 wrote 1 day ago: | |
If I'm understanding this correctly then this is about a tax | |
disincentive, making it more expensive for US companies to poach | |
R&D talent from other countries. | |
Not all countries will see that as a problem. | |
tossandthrow wrote 1 day ago: | |
The current administration is making a huge fuss out of VAT in | |
Europe. | |
MangoToupe wrote 1 day ago: | |
Sadly, not to adopt such a sane taxation method.... | |
jandrewrogers wrote 21 hours 18 min ago: | |
That isn't really possible because American Constitution | |
expressly prohibits it. There is no realistic possibility | |
of modifying the Constitution to allow it either. | |
As far as the US Federal government is concerned it has | |
little practical relevance. | |
tossandthrow wrote 23 hours 46 min ago: | |
No, lol! That would hamper the USs strongest asset: | |
consumption! | |
which is likely being hampered anyways due to corporate | |
greed in the financial sector - it is going to be | |
interesting to see the actual breaking point for leveraged | |
consumption | |
BobbyJo wrote 1 day ago: | |
This ignores the other financial and non-financial costs of | |
offshoring: legal, cultural, temporal... a lot of the time, those | |
close the gap. | |
On paper, offshoring has made sense the entire time, and yet here we | |
are in 2025 and companies still hire American devs. Not only that, | |
they often fly in foreign devs just to pay them more here than if | |
they had just offshored to their home country. | |
cbg0 wrote 1 day ago: | |
It also has to do with how the companies handle the offshoring, as | |
some larger corporations take the approach of just using an | |
outsourcing company from a specific country (usually chosen by | |
price) and assume that you can just pay a specific amount of money | |
per developer and they will all be the same quality as the guys | |
coming into the office. | |
I've worked most of my career as a remote employee and I can say | |
that the best arrangement is when the company is as involved in | |
hiring offshore employees as they are with hiring onshore ones. | |
Someone working through an intermediary will always be disconnected | |
from the company's success, as they work for an outsourcing | |
company, and not the US corporation itself. | |
There are definitely a lot of discussions to be had around employee | |
cultural fit, and I don't just mean company culture. You want a | |
similar mindset and work ethic that your other employees have if | |
you want a high chance of success. | |
We also need to talk about how some companies haven't been able to | |
successfully adapt their processes to work with remote employees | |
alongside the office employees and sometimes treat the offshore | |
ones as second class citizens, which is not really a great thing. | |
AnthonyMouse wrote 1 day ago: | |
In addition to this, those factors contribute varying amounts to | |
the total in any given case. So you also can't make the case that | |
offshoring never makes sense, because in specific cases it does. | |
But now there is a ~20% incentive for it to make sense in fewer | |
cases. | |
xlii wrote 1 day ago: | |
I have approx. 15 years of experience working remotely for various | |
companies all across the globe and was always an advocate of thesis | |
that remote work is difficult and most people arenât cut for it | |
and (to horror of many proponents) and on average are less | |
efficient than on-site hires. | |
There are many reasons: Itâs difficult to understand _intention_ | |
when deprived of non-verbal communication and working in a choppy | |
network call. Even if one can gloss over communication needs etc. | |
thereâs burnout looming around the corner and natural, healthy | |
laziness getting into the way. Sometimes even internal politics | |
might be blocking knowledge/access/contribution for more or less | |
peculiar reasons. | |
Itâs not like itâs impossible to hire remote engineer, yet my | |
(completely unmetered) estimates out of experience is that approx. | |
10% of engineers willing to work remotely can sustain health | |
(physical and mental) and be efficient outside of 1-2 years of | |
honeymoon period. | |
There was some tumbling around COVID but IMO both stationary jobs | |
and remote ones are doing well on mid-high quality positions. | |
varispeed wrote 17 hours 6 min ago: | |
The idea of coming to office comes from the fact it was not | |
practical for people to have computers and other devices at home. | |
Now we have technology that this is no longer necessary, but of | |
course commercial landlords and investors feel salty about it, so | |
they lobby for this outdated now model to keep their investments | |
artificially up. | |
phil21 wrote 17 hours 59 min ago: | |
I have nearly 3 decades (ughâ¦) now of forming fully remote | |
startups and working remotely. | |
It used to be totally non-controversial and completely validated | |
by direct personal experience that only a minority of the | |
population is built to work remotely. Itâs so silly this is | |
even an argument when our entire society and education is built | |
on in-person interactions. | |
I think the 10% number is variable depending on the org you are | |
hiring into. A company that was never built to be remote or put | |
any thought into how information and communication systems must | |
be different than office? 10% may even be high. A company built | |
from first principles with lots of thought and intentional design | |
behind business processes being remote only? Probably much too | |
low. It will be reflected even in the types of personalities | |
being hired on average. | |
If you reach for video calls as a solution to your remote | |
companies communication issues you have completely failed and | |
probably would be better served with fully on-premise. This | |
would be the first question I would ask as an interviewee for a | |
remote role. Any company regularly engaging or encouraging this | |
means leadership is simply trying in the worst possible way to | |
recreate an office environment and thus you can expect nearly | |
everything else process based to be horribly broken for a remote | |
company. I have some other âtellsâ as well, but this one | |
stands out as the simplest as it displays a total disconnect with | |
the reality of how to build remote teams. If you canât | |
function like a well ran open source project you are almost | |
assuredly doing it wrong. | |
xlii wrote 15 hours 56 min ago: | |
I read, wanted to reply but would only echo what you wrote. | |
100% agree. | |
Just a note that my 10% experience is based on general | |
population of people who were working remotely for at least 6 | |
months (and being a contractor Iâve switched orgs more often | |
than average engineer) | |
Zacharias030 wrote 10 hours 59 min ago: | |
100% agree with you both and I love the litmus tests | |
mentioned! | |
Looks like big and small tech are mostly doing things wrong | |
then? | |
UltraSane wrote 21 hours 49 min ago: | |
When I have had 100% remote work jobs one think I have noticed | |
that when I get into the "zone" and am being very productive | |
having to go home doesn't interrupt it and I can keep being very | |
productive for many more hours. Then I can slack off the next day | |
if I want to. | |
sidewndr46 wrote 22 hours 28 min ago: | |
If management is so poor that they can't communicate intention in | |
writing, then I don't really see how being in office or anywhere | |
for that matter will help. They're just flat out incompetent. | |
I've seen the opposite of this as well, where whatever management | |
clearly communicated is most definitely not what is going to get | |
executed. | |
If internal politics are blocking knowledge, access, & | |
contribution of any employee the correct action is not to hire | |
them. If they are already hired, the correct action of management | |
is to offer them severance. | |
My experience working in software startups is that the average | |
retention period of an employee is 2 years, in any work | |
environment. What you're calling the honeymoon period is | |
effectively just the average retention of the industry anyways. | |
SpicyLemonZest wrote 18 hours 28 min ago: | |
I think you're glossing a bit over the word "intention". It's | |
certainly easy for any competent manager to communicate | |
instructions or requirements in writing. What's hard is | |
communicating the full scope of their intentions, including | |
things like: | |
* This bit is confusing to me even as I say it - I want to keep | |
it in mind as we move forwards in case we're thinking about it | |
wrong. | |
* This requirement is really annoying and I'd love to find a | |
way to get rid of it. | |
* This part is super super urgent, and if we find a way to do | |
it faster without too many other costs we should rework the | |
plan. | |
You can't "just" write these things down, both because some | |
requirements aren't so annoying you can come out and explicitly | |
say it and because too many parenthetical clauses start to | |
make a document impossible to read. If they're not communicated | |
nonverbally it's hard to communicate them at all. | |
whatshisface wrote 19 hours 18 min ago: | |
The big issue is that companies are indeed poor in so many | |
ways, and all they have to fix it with is money, and sometimes | |
not even that. | |
charlie0 wrote 19 hours 51 min ago: | |
I wonder if that's because at the 2 year mark, people get a lot | |
more responsibility, but no pay increases to compensate. | |
CalRobert wrote 1 day ago: | |
A lot of companies just suck at it too. "Here's Slack, figure it | |
out" seems to be a common approach. In person you can pester the | |
person next to you when you're new, overhear conversations, etc. | |
but remote it is MUCH harder to ascertain the culture, Slack | |
etiquette, etc (my favourite was "people write in Slack all the | |
time, in public, even to themselves, it's your job to mute Slack | |
when you need focus, and don't use DM's unless you really need | |
the privacy"), but I have only seen this done very well in one | |
place - Auth0 (pour one out :-( ) . Maybe because it started | |
remote with founders thousands of KM apart. | |
xlii wrote 22 hours 58 min ago: | |
I agree. | |
Rarely companies want to hire communication expert to help | |
shape good practices even though theyâre spending hundreds of | |
thousands if not millions on stuff like Datadog etc. | |
I have this theory that mailing lists with rich search (slash | |
Google Groups slash Newsgroups) are the best communication | |
tools. | |
Hadnât had opportunity to try it out though, as it was | |
shunned âold techâ. | |
SpicyLemonZest wrote 18 hours 43 min ago: | |
Ehh, IME companies are hesitant because it's not a free | |
parameter. All of your internal processes are built on top of | |
how people communicate, so you can't change it without | |
changing the entirety of how work gets done. People routinely | |
hire experts for external comms, manager training, etc. | |
because those are easier to adjust in isolation. | |
PeterStuer wrote 1 day ago: | |
From experience I think your 10% feels overly pessimistic. 30-40% | |
feels more accurate, just like only about the same % that can | |
survive an open plan or cubicle floor. | |
I see lots of people thriving in remote. Main reasons being a | |
huge increase in quality of life. Regaining 2-3 hours of | |
senseless commuting time per day, getting small household chores | |
done over lunch, not having to schedule repair and maintainance | |
appointments in the weekends etc. is huge. | |
Now I do agree it is not for everyone. I see especially younger | |
people living alone not coping to well. Part of the reason is | |
they (ab)used the office as a socializing place, and are not used | |
to organizing a personal social life outside work. There's also | |
people that don't actually have much work outside of attending | |
office meetings, and nobody thrives sitting in Teams calls all | |
day. | |
Then there's also real downsides. Some people living in shoebox | |
appartments in the city just do not have the space. W | |
While work can be done (more?) efficiently remote, but carreer | |
climbing needs in person contact. It's like dating. Real dinner | |
or a video call? No comparison. | |
Best of both worlds would be 0 commute time to a luxurious | |
private office inside the company premises. All the rest will be | |
tradeoffs and compromises either way. | |
jayd16 wrote 19 hours 42 min ago: | |
So the problem with this reply is you talk about thriving and | |
then list personal benefits. Those are not thriving in the | |
workplace that companies are looking for. | |
xlii wrote 23 hours 1 min ago: | |
I canât disclose details but Iâve been doing mentoring, | |
screening and interviewing + screening for years and saw remote | |
communities grow from 10s to 1000s. | |
What youâre saying is true especially in the honeymoon phase, | |
but the running joke is that you donât really live remote | |
life unless solitude made you name a pigeon. Iâve seen | |
careers of many of my peers and usually 5 years in people | |
starts to seek on-site. | |
Thereâs another point to take into consideration though. In | |
Europe commute is usually less than hour and for many morning | |
routine is an opening to watch movies/read books/listen to | |
music or podcasts. Some travel with friends so thatâs a | |
social occasion too. Given accounts of my US colleagues where | |
itâs usually lone drive back and forth experience is | |
different. | |
Yet remote means omitting or social events and being outsider | |
in the most-social environment (especially for men). Even | |
hybrid with one day is much better than completely remote. | |
What I found over the years is that no one can say what | |
differentiates remote-able to non-remote. Quiet back-seat | |
engineer can get depressed after year of remote and that guy | |
who is always heart of the party can thrive in remote. Itâs | |
just⦠it wears people down quickly and problems are usually | |
creeping. Back pains coming from tension. Working hours slowly | |
inflating to compensate for extra 10 minutes spent on lunch, | |
this one time when you are bored at 8pm because you are bored | |
in front of computer so why not help someone. | |
Maybe Iâm biased but I find situation that some people are | |
remote and some arenât to be a healthy one. This preserves | |
local jobs while also making an opening for those who want to | |
do remote work for any reason whatsoever. And this honeymoon | |
period is good to check out if youâre fit for remote or not | |
(and gives enough churn to provide opportunity to try). | |
JumpCrisscross wrote 12 hours 56 min ago: | |
> unless solitude made you name a pigeon | |
This is kind of hilarious because I moved to Wyoming a few | |
years ago and have recently started naming the magpies. | |
HerrMonnezza wrote 20 hours 47 min ago: | |
Interesting remarks, thanks! | |
When discussing remote vs non-remote with a colleague some | |
time ago over lunch, he mentioned that "remote is an extreme | |
version of yourself", so those inclined to slack off will | |
slack off way more to the point of being unproductive, and | |
those inclined to work longer hours will eventually just | |
spend all their time working... Maybe over-simplified but I | |
think he was onto something. | |
acedTrex wrote 20 hours 47 min ago: | |
I think it is really the commute that makes or breaks the | |
office. My commute is 40 mins there and if I leave after 4pm | |
itll take me an hour 15 to an hour 30 to get home. All in | |
bumper to bumper standstill traffic | |
__loam wrote 1 day ago: | |
Yeah people have been offshoring then onshoring once they realize | |
offshoring sucks since at least the 90s. I remember my dad, who was | |
also a software dev, complaining about it 20 years ago. It always | |
swings back. The network effect in huge hubs like SF and NYC is | |
massive. | |
fnordpiglet wrote 1 day ago: | |
Iâve been a part of the entire arc of offshored teams since the | |
trend started in the late 90âs early 00âs. Iâve never seen | |
it work. The primary issue is and always has been time zone | |
related. While it doesnât show to an accountant we do live on a | |
sphere and there are implications to everyone. The solution is | |
always to find some self contained effort for the remote centers | |
but it never works because the entire company is pulling together | |
and short of making the remote teams spin offs thereâs no way | |
to disentangle dependencies. And at some level even if you could | |
management has to work cross regionally which isolates them from | |
their center of power in the home office time zone. The root is | |
the company is asking you to make immense personal sacrifice so | |
they can save money if the model were to work. There is no upside | |
to anyone other than the remote management in this situation so | |
they burn out quickly and still fail because literally no one | |
else in the company cares in any meaningful way. Itâs unfair at | |
its core and therefore fails. | |
The issues of quality and whatnot are at their core racist IMO | |
but are made real because of the timezone issue. The norms and | |
culture expected in the home time zones donât translate easily | |
and result in an impedance mismatch and a different measure of | |
âgood.â Because the remote team is isolated and unempowered | |
they always struggle to adopt the standard of the team and to | |
some extent canât ever succeed in the quality space as itâll | |
be an ever shifting goalpost whose reasoning is effectively | |
hidden. Then layer in the latent resentment on both sides and | |
the whole situation is bound to fail, but the home teams have the | |
advantage of being resident with the only management that | |
matters. | |
I wish everyone involved would realize the experiment has failed. | |
But CFOs are too powerful in most companies large enough to | |
reasonably pull off outsourcing at all and the need for the CEO | |
to please boards and investors who just operating off the | |
financial statements and HBR white papers are too disconnected | |
for why these efforts fail. | |
Unfortunately the current persecution of immigrants in the US | |
will drive these arrangements more and more. Rather than on | |
shoring local foreign talent with the collocated team, foreign | |
talent will opt to avoid the fear society being birthed. This | |
will lead to a strong incentive to follow talent to their home | |
country leading to more imbalance in talent disoriented time | |
zones. Maybe this would require everyone to figure out the above | |
issues but I seriously doubt it. I think itâll just make | |
everyone less effective and not achieve anything positive for | |
anyone. | |
CalRobert wrote 1 day ago: | |
It seems like more American companies are noticing that Latin | |
America has lots of intelligent, clever people who produce good | |
work, and cost less. I have worked with a lot of Argentinians | |
and really enjoyed it. | |
I'm in Europe now and it definitely is easier to set up calls | |
with my South African colleagues than the American ones. | |
fnordpiglet wrote 22 hours 33 min ago: | |
Yes Iâve done some excellent work with teams in Brazil. | |
__loam wrote 1 day ago: | |
One of the most insightful comments I've seen on this site. | |
BobbyJo wrote 1 day ago: | |
100%. Most of the planet is cheaper than the US, and has been for | |
decades. That being the case, how are there so many knowledge | |
workers here still? | |
Tade0 wrote 1 day ago: | |
Hailing from an outsourcing destination I think I need to state | |
the obvious: there exist IT jobs outside the US. | |
Americans have a... distinct work culture and companies - local | |
and foreign - are not stupid, so nowadays they aim for the | |
50-75 percentile in terms of compensation. | |
On top of that you absolutely need to be fluent in English, | |
which disqualifies half the candidates right off the bat. | |
All this combined makes it not obvious whether one would want | |
to/could work for an American company - particularly if it's | |
through various middlemen. | |
US used to be 100% worth it, but over the course of the last 25 | |
years the ratio of GDPs per capita between USA and my country | |
fell from 5.5 to around 3.75 and compensation naturally | |
followed. | |
Lastly, the dollar fell 15% since the start of 2025 against my | |
country's currency and that has had an effect on available | |
openings. | |
throwaway2037 wrote 1 day ago: | |
> Americans have a... distinct work culture | |
That is a mighty wide brush to paint your generalisation. Do | |
Brazilians or South Africans or Sri Lankans also have | |
"distinct work culture"? I assume yes. Not much being said | |
there. | |
Another way to look at it: If your country was much richer | |
than the US the model would be flipped. Do you think | |
Americans would post a similar generalisation here? Yep. | |
Not much being said. | |
root_axis wrote 1 day ago: | |
I believe the impact of Section 174 has been vastly overstated, sadly | |
we will soon observe this to be the case. | |
cheema33 wrote 1 day ago: | |
Nobody at my work knew anything about it. And we do have software | |
engineers. I suspect only the very large orgs with expensive | |
accountants were complying. And pay now vs later thing didn't really | |
matter that much to them anyway. | |
greenchair wrote 23 hours 16 min ago: | |
yep it is definitely a big deal for f500. lots of creative | |
accounting techniques had to be used in the meantime. | |
BobbyJo wrote 1 day ago: | |
What do you base that belief on? | |
autobodie wrote 1 day ago: | |
I would assume they think the cause of the layoffs was more related | |
to the non-zero interest rate. | |
doctorpangloss wrote 1 day ago: | |
Well who the hell was complying anyway? | |
nashashmi wrote 1 day ago: | |
This was the expense that was removed in the first Trump tax bill. | |
Amazing how it takes another super tax bill just to get it through | |
0xbadcafebee wrote 1 day ago: | |
The elimination of green energy incentives is going to have a big | |
negative effect on the economy. Those billions of dollars not only were | |
going to new businesses and jobs, but they were joined with loans from | |
banks and commitments from customers with the expectation that the | |
government would be funding the remainder. This means private industry | |
and banks will be shouldering the loss of hundreds of billions of | |
dollars, which, as any astute person should know by now, later gets | |
shouldered by the average citizen in rate hikes, stock market plunges, | |
increased inflation, etc. There goes your job and 401k and here comes | |
more expensive products. | |
Aside from the direct negative effects: we lose even more to foreign | |
countries who now have even more runway to gain expertise in green | |
energy and sell to everyone else investing in it. Nobody but the 3rd | |
world is increasing investments in coal/oil and there's no money we | |
could make there anyway. So there goes any money we could've made on | |
energy internationally. | |
Either this country is intentionally being tanked, or we're in the | |
stupidest timeline. | |
jimmydorry wrote 1 day ago: | |
The largest competitor to US renewables, would be China. They have | |
been rolling back their subsidies for years. [1] China, India, | |
Russia, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia (off the top of my | |
head, and a quick google to add a few I missed [2]) have all | |
increased investments into coal since 2020. | |
The renewable industry in the US was wrought with companies seizing | |
as many renewable credits and subsidies as they can, while providing | |
as little as possible to show for them. If this moves the industry as | |
a whole to focus on projects that are not just marginal at best, we | |
should start to see better traction on projects that actually matter. | |
We have long been told that renewables are cheaper in every way that | |
matters, so let's see the economics of that play out. [1] | |
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-roll-back-clea... | |
[2]: https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/wind-and-solar-repla... | |
0xbadcafebee wrote 21 hours 48 min ago: | |
> We have long been told that renewables are cheaper in every way | |
that matters, so let's see the economics of that play out. | |
Renewables are cheaper now than they used to be. Why? The same | |
reason anything is cheaper the longer you make it: technological | |
improvement, economies of scale, production efficiency, increased # | |
customers, reduced capex, amortized r&d, etc. | |
"the economics of that" aren't black and white. Just because | |
something is expensive today doesn't mean it will be expensive | |
tomorrow. But if something cheaper exists today, and nobody invests | |
in the expensive thing (because "the market" doesn't see immediate | |
cash gains in it), then the expensive thing never has the | |
opportunity to become cheap. | |
> The renewable industry in the US was wrought with companies | |
seizing as many renewable credits and subsidies as they can, while | |
providing as little as possible to show for them. | |
The "show" is long-term. That's the whole point of all green | |
energy: it's expensive at the beginning, and then becomes | |
increasingly cheaper over time, to the point you start saving | |
money, and then you keep saving money. But to ever get to that | |
point, you have to invest big at the start. That's what the | |
subsidies are for! | |
China has a massive and cheap labor force and decades of | |
manufacturing expertise. That makes their products/services cheap | |
and advanced. Unless we literally take over Mexico, we don't have | |
the labor. And unless we start investing now, we'll never have the | |
expertise. Without subsidies, we will never get on renewables, and | |
we will always pay more for energy. Since the whole future of the | |
world is dependent on energy, it might be a good idea for us to | |
invest in it! | |
wraptile wrote 1 day ago: | |
China has been rolling back subsidies because they won solar | |
panels. No other country is even remotely close to market strength | |
as China here and obviously for Chinese it makes sense to reduce | |
incentives but does that make sense for the US which has 1% of this | |
market power? | |
> Between January and May, China added 198 GW of solar and 46 GW of | |
wind, enough to generate as much electricity as Indonesia or Turkey | |
[1] 1 - | |
[1]: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/26/china-breaks... | |
nandomrumber wrote 1 day ago: | |
What evidence is there of governments being more successful at | |
picking winners than the market? | |
Governments should stay out of the winner-picking business, which | |
they do with money from the public purse, and allow individuals and | |
enterprise to use their own money to have a go at picking winners | |
themselves. | |
If industry and banks find investment in any particular field | |
unpalatable without Government incentive, then those investments were | |
unpalatable to start with. | |
Industry and banks will find something better to do with their money. | |
raverbashing wrote 1 day ago: | |
Cool, cut all the oil subsidies, and road subsidies, and let the | |
market decide | |
nandomrumber wrote 1 day ago: | |
Did you know if you run a business (carry on an enterprise) the | |
majority of the costs of doing business are tax deductible. | |
That's another term subsidised. | |
I'd argue fossil fuel industry subsidies are a net benefit to | |
society as they help enable cheap reliable energy. | |
Whereas renewable subsidies are a net negative because they | |
don't. Everywhere more renewables have gone electricity has | |
become more expensive and less reliable, completely antithetical | |
to strong industrial development. | |
Also, renewables seem to be driven forward largely due to a | |
psychological contagion that a climate apocalypse is nigh, which | |
is turning out to be completely toxic, especially to the minds of | |
the next generations. | |
tired-turtle wrote 1 day ago: | |
> Everywhere more renewables have gone electricity has become | |
more expensive and less reliable, completely antithetical to | |
strong industrial development. | |
Have you heard of Washington state? 75% renewable energy and | |
10th percentile for the cost per kWh. | |
jandrewrogers wrote 1 day ago: | |
Washington is a bit of a special case given that most of | |
their electricity comes from vast hydroelectric resources | |
constructed almost a century ago. That situation doesnât | |
generalize to other places. It is disingenuous to imply that | |
this is an example relevant to modern energy policy. | |
jnfno wrote 1 day ago: | |
What evidence is there those with capital/the market are making the | |
best engineering and science based decisions and not just juicing | |
their portfolio because theyâll be dead when shit hits the fan? | |
nandomrumber wrote 6 hours 53 min ago: | |
People have children they might care about. | |
Governments donât. | |
ChromaticPanic wrote 1 day ago: | |
This isn't a game so it's not about picking winners. It's about | |
steering the economy so local businesses get an advantage over | |
foreign entities. | |
nandomrumber wrote 1 day ago: | |
By all means, have government get out of the way so the economy | |
can get on with it. | |
I'm more in favour of tax incentivised encouragement, lowering | |
the barriers to entry, and more so when there are proven benefits | |
to the economy and society, and less in favour of government | |
backed loans and direct cash injection. | |
jaybrendansmith wrote 1 day ago: | |
Sure, I'll bite. Will they invest in more coal and gas instead? And | |
help cook the planet? You post as if you don't know what it's | |
about, but of course you do. Disingenuous and contemptible. | |
sp527 wrote 1 day ago: | |
Any green energy project that isn't nuclear is a waste of money and | |
resources. Nuclear is now being pursued in earnest by the tech | |
industry itself. There's no problem here. | |
cbg0 wrote 1 day ago: | |
I suspect that in the US nuclear is being pursued by the tech | |
industry due to the current administration, if Biden were still in | |
the White House, the tech industry would be pushing for offshore | |
wind and solar panels. | |
Nuclear is expensive and requires red tape and a long time to bring | |
online, but the real benefit is that it can deliver power | |
consistently all day, unlike wind and solar. I think the ideal | |
future includes all of these plus better storage capabilities. | |
saubeidl wrote 1 day ago: | |
Nuclear is by far more expensive than other green options. | |
SoftTalker wrote 19 hours 29 min ago: | |
It has been historically, but must it be? | |
cheema33 wrote 1 day ago: | |
> Any green energy project that isn't nuclear is a waste of money | |
and resources. | |
Nuclear's cost/megawatt is significantly higher than most other | |
options. If anybody is reaching for nuclear it is because they are | |
using up all available capacity through other means. Nobody picks | |
nuclear for cost reasons. | |
AnthonyMouse wrote 1 day ago: | |
Data centers are a pretty good match for nuclear because they run | |
24/7 and use a fairly constant amount of power. Solar is cheap in | |
terms of amortized price per kWh but then you need some other | |
solution to supply power at night or when it's cloudy, and the | |
price of that has to be paid on top of the cost of solar. | |
Meanwhile nuclear costs what it does in significant part because | |
the number of new plants is low which requires the cost of | |
designing new reactors etc. to be amortized over fewer plants. | |
But if you build more of them that changes. | |
jofzar wrote 1 day ago: | |
So this is going to get all those jobs back that people have been layed | |
off for right? Right? | |
nine_k wrote 1 day ago: | |
Hiring software engineers is going to become less expensive. So | |
likely there's going to be more jobs on the market, and maybe better | |
jobs. | |
But when a forest is cut, usually a new forest that grows on that | |
place looks different. | |
coliveira wrote 1 day ago: | |
Of course not. | |
supportengineer wrote 1 day ago: | |
Reversion to the mean | |
ttul wrote 1 day ago: | |
Meanwhile, in Canada, not only can you expense R&D, but there is a | |
cashable tax refund that will give you back about 60% of your | |
developersâ salaries⦠| |
llm_nerd wrote 23 hours 32 min ago: | |
It's 35% of eligible spend on up to $3 million, and 15% above that | |
(15% and 15% if the corporation is not Canadian). Further, most | |
software development simply doesn't qualify- [1] If you're making | |
websites or doing Shopify integrations, etc, that doesn't actually | |
qualify. | |
Something truly novel in AI or self driving or whatever -- sure. | |
[1]: https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/scientific-... | |
ttul wrote 17 hours 37 min ago: | |
This is a naive perspective. In reality, most of the software | |
development that a typical growth company does is eligible. As one | |
of CRAâs auditors once told me, âThe general arc of your | |
development has to meet the criteria of being technically | |
challenging and uncertain, and you have to follow a generally | |
scientific approach, measuring your results empirically. But if you | |
need a web console to help with that, who are we to say thatâs | |
not eligible support work?â | |
llm_nerd wrote 17 hours 9 min ago: | |
>This is a naive perspective. | |
Okay. | |
SR&ED had 22,758 applications last year. Software development | |
only accounted for 40% of it. So 9000 applications from software | |
dev firms, the majority being very small firms. That is a tiny, | |
tiny minority of software firms in this country. | |
>In reality, most of the software development that a typical | |
growth company does is eligible | |
No, it absolutely is not, unless you are lying on the | |
application. And yes, a lot of people lie to get government | |
grants and subsidies. And it works out pretty good until someone | |
audits it and realizes that someone is making a shitty | |
instrumentation console that absolutely no one would say advances | |
scientific knowledge and demands the credit back plus interest | |
and penalties. | |
And yes, I've seen people's absolute bullshit SR&ED applications | |
before. I've had peers ask me to review theirs, where they do bog | |
standard bullshit dev but read on HN how super easy it is, and | |
they convince themselves that "everyone is doing it". Only those | |
signatures on the form that lies about what is actually being | |
claimed. | |
Again, it's awesome...until it isn't. Which is why the vast | |
majority of software firms are not claiming this. | |
veeti wrote 1 day ago: | |
Meanwhile in one of the world's higest taxed welfare states, where | |
you absolutely can deduct 100% of SW developer salaries I feel I've | |
been taking crazy pills every time reading these threads. It's almost | |
as if some folks in """Hacker""" News wanted this law to stay to | |
further cement gigantic incumbents and make it impossible for | |
bootstrapped companies to compete. | |
Galanwe wrote 1 day ago: | |
There is something similar in France, the Crédit Impôts Recherche | |
(CIR), I remember it was around 50%. I've heard it's going to | |
disappear though, there were abuses. | |
huhkerrf wrote 1 day ago: | |
It's also capricious. I've been in companies doing legitimate r&d | |
who would spend man months preparing for the CIR only to get it | |
rejected, while they got it in previous years for much less | |
interesting work. | |
forty wrote 1 day ago: | |
"There are abuses" is really an understatement. "It's mostly abuse | |
and there might be some legitimate beneficiaries" would be more | |
correct. | |
eric-burel wrote 1 day ago: | |
It's hackernews, not Elon Musk's X or the French parliament, | |
please bring sources and precise details. | |
forty wrote 1 day ago: | |
It's quite common knowledge :) if you want journalist material, | |
I think there was a Cash Investigation on the topic a few years | |
ago. | |
I have discussed this topic with many other engineers (known | |
from engineering school, from working 13+ years in the Paris | |
tech startup ecosystem and from my worker union, whose scope | |
include most tech companies) and I have never heard any of them | |
saying they did not write bullshit CIR reports for bullshit | |
projects. I have myself written my fair share of those bullshit | |
reports. There are even companies whose business is to write | |
the bullshit reports for you in exchange for x% of your CIR | |
credit. I worked with such company. | |
eric-burel wrote 22 hours 43 min ago: | |
My experience is different, so far I've defended R&D that I | |
believed to be eligible to tax credits, in order for | |
companies to be competitive with other countries that also | |
subsidize R&D and innovation, namely USA and Canada. | |
You can't generalize a 7 billion tax cut system based on one | |
journalist work (the same and the same is quoted again...), | |
opinions based on a few rotten fruits in the basket, and an | |
anti-startup trend that amplifies this hatred for political | |
and ideological reasons. | |
forty wrote 16 hours 5 min ago: | |
It's not only the tech startups, I've mentioned it because | |
that's what a know best, but my brother works for a large | |
industrial company, and they use the same tricks and also | |
have their reports done by professional bullshit companies | |
whose jobs is to make it look like some research happened | |
(in their case it's sometimes somewhat the case - unlike | |
tech startups - but most of it is just bullshit). | |
Galanwe wrote 21 hours 47 min ago: | |
My experience, from 20 years as well, aligns with | |
widespread abuses. Pretty much the whole financial sector | |
is sponsored by the CIR, none of which contribute anything | |
beyond the bullshit reports mentioned above. I myself wrote | |
countless reports like that, most of them vastly | |
autogenerated to look pompous. | |
I don't remember having to defend anything to get the CIR, | |
it's more of a judgment call on whether you feel confident | |
to defend it if you get an audit, and these are very rare. | |
We've had such audit in the past, and it made everyone | |
rewrite each submitted report in a hurry to make them look | |
more serious. No sanction were applied. | |
At this point, my opinion is that the CIR has very little | |
to do with actual research, but rather it's a discretionary | |
tax subsidy for sectors in which France wants to be | |
competitive. | |
eric-burel wrote 1 day ago: | |
Hi, CIR expert here, it's well and alive. There has been a | |
communication push against it last year but relatively over. | |
It's 30% of R&D expenses as a tax cut. | |
Update: I think the 50% you mention is related to non salary | |
expenses CII = a smaller similar system for innovation, which we | |
differentiate from R&D. CII used to cover non salary expenses with | |
a 50% forfait but this part has been removed indeed. It still | |
covers 20% of salary expenses. | |
nickff wrote 1 day ago: | |
You can only expense Canadian R&D expenses; meaning anything that is | |
not completely used up almost immediately is treated as an asset. | |
This makes almost no difference for software development, but is very | |
important (and disadvantageous) in more capital-intensive industries. | |
ttul wrote 17 hours 40 min ago: | |
They just added capital expenditures as well at a 40% rate | |
(compared with 35% for salaries). So this is no longer a concern. | |
anovikov wrote 1 day ago: | |
So it means that indirectly, developers' salaries are not a taxable | |
income in Canada if they are working on R&D? Meaning, they do pay | |
taxes on their income, but their employer gets those taxes back, so | |
if tax is 60%, the employer could pay 250% of what they'd pay | |
otherwise, get 150% back, then the developer pays 150% of taxes, and | |
gets 100%, so in effect the salary is tax-free. Is that what you | |
meant to say? | |
If so, it sounds almost too good to be true. Why aren't all startups | |
in Canada? | |
__turbobrew__ wrote 20 hours 47 min ago: | |
There is lots of paperwork for SR&ED, enough so that companies opt | |
not to do it. | |
Canada wrote 1 day ago: | |
Yeah, I never thought of it that way. Your plan sounds great, but, | |
in practice how it works is you get paid about half of what you | |
would get in the US. Currently less than half due to the unusual | |
currency exchange rates. | |
throwawaysleep wrote 1 day ago: | |
Canada's lack of startups is heavily cultural. | |
We adopt new products less. We are far more risk averse about | |
purchasing goods or services from startups, far more risk averse | |
about funding them (founders often give personal guarantees to get | |
the investment), value the equity startups offer at far less, etc. | |
Government is far more fussy about accountability with that | |
refundable R&D money, so lots of time is spent filling out | |
paperwork and hiring consultants to do it. | |
Here is a video that explains a lot about Canadian purchasing: | |
[1]: https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/1.4596459 | |
throwaway2037 wrote 1 day ago: | |
The cultural bit is underrated. Tobias Lütke from Germany is | |
the co-founder and CEO of Shopify has written about this issue of | |
Canadian business culture extensively. Also, the ecosystem of | |
VCs in the US are unmatched globally. And, the internal market | |
in US is f'ing huge. | |
tormeh wrote 1 day ago: | |
I donât think this is uniquely Canadian. And itâs usually | |
semi-rational, if you really hate dealing with switching. Most | |
cheaper subscription providers will give you a good deal at | |
first, then jack up the prices when theyâre bought by a major | |
provider. New cheaper providers are founded, and the cycle | |
continues. The cheaper prices last for two or three years, or | |
similarly short. Most people would rather take the loss than | |
having to pay attention to this stuff. | |
nickff wrote 1 day ago: | |
There are many limits on SR&ED, and the reporting/auditing process | |
is burdensome. Canada also suffers from a variety of other | |
inconveniences, mostly related to its dependence on resource | |
extraction-related industries. | |
ttul wrote 17 hours 39 min ago: | |
Itâs not terrible in comparison to the scale of the benefit. | |
Just outsource the report writing to KPMG or another capable and | |
reputable accounting firm and youâll survive audits and it | |
wonât kill your team. I would say over the years, SRED has | |
helped us become better at managing the efficiency of dev. | |
sMarsIntruder wrote 1 day ago: | |
I hate to see this, but youâre comparing two completely different | |
systems. | |
Like it or not, but Canada is much more âsocialistâ, you canât | |
expect it in any case to be like US or viceversa. | |
ttul wrote 17 hours 33 min ago: | |
I suppose it takes living in both countries to really just whether | |
Canada is âmuchâ more socialist. The US has a lot of socialism | |
in the form of generous disability income replacement programs, | |
Medicare and Medicaid, SNAP, and the like. Canadian provinces must | |
implement a single payor medical insurance program within certain | |
parameters, but dentistry - bar a very new and very small federal | |
program - is fully private. And pharmaceutical pricing is largely | |
free market. | |
When you zoom in on some of the Big Beautiful Billâs new | |
programs, they appear more âsocialistâ than anything Canadians | |
have ever enjoyed. | |
llm_nerd wrote 23 hours 18 min ago: | |
Canada is much more socialist, in your take, so it has more | |
programs for corporations and private enterprise? Huh? This is | |
nonsensical. | |
Further, it's incredibly difficult to quantify countries on this | |
purported socialism scale. Sure, Canada has universal healthcare | |
like every single developed country but the US, but otherwise it's | |
much more of a mixed bag. The US has always been vastly more | |
"socialist" than its advocates think -- the military is a colossal | |
make work project and is straight out of Soviet doctrine for | |
central planning -- and of course the entire agricultural industry | |
exists under a massive subsidization regime, but under the current | |
administration....whoa.... There is no Western country that has a | |
central planned economy, with a president that is taking direct | |
control of corporations (US Steel) and demanding ownership of | |
corporations (TikTok), while enlisting private executives as | |
members of the military exactly like China ( [1] ), all while | |
saying the entire economy is a "store" that he has sole control | |
over. Absolutely no one in the US, looking very Stalinesque ala the | |
late 1930s, should be throwing stones about socialism. | |
[1]: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jun/25/meta-ex... | |
cbsmith wrote 1 day ago: | |
Canada is "much more socialist" in that it has socialized medical | |
insurance. Aside from that, it's maybe a tiny bit more socialist, | |
though one could argue it's not more socialist at all. | |
The systems are different, but saying they are completely different | |
is really a stretch. There's a GST that the US doesn't have, which | |
is, ironically, a regressive tax. If you ranked the tax code of | |
countries by similarity to the US tax code, I'm not sure Canada | |
would be at the top of the list, but it wouldn't be that far down. | |
whatshisface wrote 1 day ago: | |
I saw a chart that added the market value of government support to | |
income for US persons, and it used the term "household resources." | |
I'd like to see a table of household resource distributions for | |
Canada and the US. | |
agwa wrote 1 day ago: | |
As a small software business owner, I have to agree with Michele Hansen | |
(who spent 2 years advocating on behalf of small software businesses | |
for this very change): "weâre finally going to get Section 174 | |
relief, and I couldnât be angrier" | |
[1]: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mjwhansen_it-looks-like-were-fi... | |
Thorrez wrote 1 day ago: | |
Is the girl in the picture going to lose coverage? If yes, what part | |
of the OBBB is going to remove her coverage? If not, then why go into | |
all this detail about her if she's going to keep her coverage? | |
GenerWork wrote 13 hours 14 min ago: | |
Nobody can answer any of these questions because they've been | |
misled by misinformation which has ironically been promoted by the | |
same people who bleat about misinformation on a daily basis. | |
benreesman wrote 1 day ago: | |
Yeah. This is a tough one. Its a really bad bill that happens to also | |
be the best thing that could happen in the economic life of most any | |
programmer. | |
This is going to make a lot of people's lives a lot worse and I'm | |
against it even though it's an absurd windfall for me and people like | |
me. | |
andrepd wrote 1 day ago: | |
Yeah. Not gonna lie it's a bit obscene watching people in this | |
thread revelling that their absurdly highly paid jobs will become | |
even more highly paid, given what's at stake. | |
benreesman wrote 22 hours 32 min ago: | |
When the hammer fell in late 2022 / early 2023 I was out of work | |
for the first time in 20 years of uninterrupted employment | |
without one day of unemployment. Having just carried my family | |
(financially) through a bereavement that left people effectively | |
unable to work (there are a zillion expenses you don't think | |
about) I was also running on fumes myself, and I very rapidly | |
surmised that I was going bankrupt | |
: I had a cost structure that takes a minimum of a year to change | |
and I had just gotten done telling the Valley where to stick | |
their millions a few years earlier. | |
So for me this is like, the end of a period where contrarian | |
hackers can be passed on at arbitrary ability in a way that has | |
no lower limit: there is no bottom now and there is no safety | |
net. | |
But I had about a decade of just never having to care about money | |
at all before that, so maybe there's some karma in it too. | |
For me this is like, OK I'm definitely not going to get frozen | |
out of work with no place to live anymore, and I'd be lying if I | |
said I didn't sleep easier last night than I have in a while. | |
But even from that vantage point, I oppose the passage of this | |
bill and will argue to see it overturmed: the people who it hurts | |
are more vulnerable still. | |
doctorpangloss wrote 1 day ago: | |
Not sure if this is an absurd windfall... It aligns software | |
developers with the guild professionals, like dentists and lawyers, | |
who had an economically equivalent benefit via S corp | |
distributions. Except to get this one, you have to pay a royalty to | |
someone to write your technical narrative. | |
benreesman wrote 1 day ago: | |
I got more inbound recruiter email in the last week than in the | |
two years up until last week. | |
Everyone's BATNA just skyrocketed. What you choose to do with a | |
huge surge in your pricing power is up to you, but you have it. | |
yieldcrv wrote 1 day ago: | |
I disagree, every rider was independently lobbied for and the outcome | |
would be the same if passed separately by Congress or as a rider in a | |
larger bill like it was. | |
There is no reason to have cognitive dissonance over it. | |
AnthonyMouse wrote 1 day ago: | |
If you have a huge omnibus bill that has a good thing that the | |
representative's constituents want, and then a mountain of burning | |
trash attached to it, and the representative votes for the bill, | |
they can defend the vote as getting the thing their constituents | |
wanted. | |
If you make them each a different bill and then the constituents | |
want to know why they voted in favor of the hot garbage by itself, | |
how can they answer? | |
edaemon wrote 1 day ago: | |
If every rider was independently proposed the outcome wouldn't be | |
the same, reconciliation wouldn't apply and 60 Senate votes would | |
be required to pass them. | |
yieldcrv wrote 1 day ago: | |
decent point | |
two counteracting forces: | |
The senate parliamentarian decided they could be in the | |
reconciliation bill | |
and outside of the reconciliation bill, believe it or not, | |
Congress does pass other bills over the 60 senate vote threshold | |
This R&D one would be a decent candidate | |
acheron wrote 1 day ago: | |
It proves they never actually cared in the first place, itâs just | |
arguments as soldiers. | |
johncole wrote 1 day ago: | |
I think we will see this lead to a boost in software developer | |
employment. | |
kelnos wrote 1 day ago: | |
At best it will undo some of the decline over the past 2-3 years. | |
This "solution" is to a problem the GOP created themselves during | |
Trump's first term, when they made the R&D deduction stuff expire in | |
2022. | |
noodletheworld wrote 1 day ago: | |
Are you being serious or sarcastic? I cant tell. | |
Seriously, that seems unlikely. | |
Changes like this may have an impact on employment but itâs | |
impossible to observe the results in a vacuum. | |
Given that most large companies are towing the âAI means less jobs | |
requiredâ line, it seems likely that this will, at best, modestly | |
slow the rate at which companies divest themselves of software | |
developers. | |
I cant see any reasonable reason, in a broader context, this would | |
have a meaningful impact. | |
(Yeah yeah, AI means more jobs one day maybe, but right now that is | |
categorically not true, and the future is always pure speculation, | |
but in the near term, the impact of this seems like it probably wont | |
be material to me; maybe a small reduction in the number of layoffs) | |
BobbyJo wrote 15 hours 19 min ago: | |
> I cant see any reasonable reason, in a broader context, this | |
would have a meaningful impact. | |
A significant amount of software dev employment is in startups. | |
Companies that are spending on development, but aren't making much | |
money yet, will see a huge benefit from this. The change in tax | |
liability could mean a single seed or series A round paying for an | |
extra 1-2 devs. | |
mlinhares wrote 1 day ago: | |
I doubt it, the narrative is that software engineering is dead and | |
everything will be replaced by AI, so that salaries can continue to | |
be depressed. Just like the original passing didn't really cause much | |
trouble in the general market this repeal will mostly just produce | |
more shareholder value. | |
BobbyJo wrote 1 day ago: | |
Original passing didn't cause much trouble because the provision | |
didn't take effect til 4 years later. | |
seattle_spring wrote 1 day ago: | |
Anyone who knows anything about software and has used AI for more | |
than 24 hours knows that AI won't be "replacing" software | |
engineering anytime soon. | |
mlinhares wrote 13 hours 40 min ago: | |
That doesnât matter, what matters is making the narrative | |
stick. | |
akmarinov wrote 1 day ago: | |
Hard disagree, Iâve been agentic coding the past couple of | |
months and have written maybe 100 lines doing this for a living. | |
The rest is coming up with SDDs and reviewing AIâs code. | |
I can easily see most devs, doctors and lawyers automated away in | |
the next couple of years. | |
seattle_spring wrote 19 hours 8 min ago: | |
I'd love to get access to codebases made entirely with agentic | |
coding that people deem a success. Everything they've suggested | |
for me beyond trivial work has been wildly overcomplicated. | |
coffeebeqn wrote 1 day ago: | |
Either we have wildly different difficulty levels at our jobs | |
or this is bs. I tried the agents (I get access to basically | |
all state of the art from my company) and they still have all | |
the same issues of agents from a year back. Each step gets more | |
chaotic and the end result is always that I end up reverting | |
the over complicated mess it made and writing it myself. | |
One-offs with lots of context still sometimes work. | |
Even a perfect eval loop like failing tests end up 80% of the | |
time with them creating something way too complicated since | |
they solve one visible but not root issue at a time and build | |
on top of that hacky foundation until again I end up reverting | |
it all | |
akmarinov wrote 1 day ago: | |
Yeah - thatâs the hard part now - dialing things down to | |
eliminate the divergent paths the AI can take to implement | |
what you want. | |
You can tell it âimplement feature Xâ and itâll go and | |
do whateverâs easiest for it, often something dumb, | |
thatâs when people usually think âitâs dumb, wonâ�… | |
replace devsâ and give up. Or you can nail down your | |
requirements by talking to it and describing what youâre | |
looking for, often it comes back with things you hadnât | |
considered or ways of doing things you didnât know. Then | |
just tell it âimplement this SDDâ and watch it one shot | |
it in an hour or so. | |
Thereâs also pain points - some languages like Swift have | |
changed so often and thereâs little open source code to | |
train on out there, so itâs on the worse side if you do iOS | |
development. | |
Itâs a new skill that needs working at, but in the end your | |
output is significantly increased. | |
seattle_spring wrote 19 hours 6 min ago: | |
> in the end your output is significantly increased. | |
The claim you're arguing against is that AI will replace | |
software engineering as a discipline. Seems like you're | |
instead saying that it will increase developer | |
productivity, which no one disagrees with. | |
akmarinov wrote 17 hours 38 min ago: | |
Well yeah, if you have one senior with the power of 2-3 | |
AI agents - you donât need juniors or sometimes mid | |
developers at all. Letâs say youâre Whatsapp and your | |
20 people develop the app, well now you need 5 at most | |
for the same workload. | |
Obviously weâre not yet at the point where the CEO can | |
enter âbuild me the next Uberâ in Claude Code and | |
watch the stock price go up. | |
throwawaysleep wrote 1 day ago: | |
Very much agree. | |
I am overemployed with 3 dev jobs at once. AI is writing | |
virtually all my code and letting me nap all day. Eventually | |
that will end once people see the power of them. | |
ldjkfkdsjnv wrote 1 day ago: | |
ive been coding 5+ hours a day almost every day for 15 years. i | |
think ai will replace 70% of SWE in the near future. not | |
employement, but 70% of the current work done by engineers | |
AnthonyMouse wrote 1 day ago: | |
At which point you're potentially looking at Jevon's Paradox. | |
Software developers do X and Y. AI thing can now do X, so it's | |
used for that, and it's cheaper, so the number of projects | |
increase because you get more demand at a lower price. Those | |
projects each need someone to do Y. | |
zeroonetwothree wrote 1 day ago: | |
I donât even spend 70% of my time coding. I suspect thatâs | |
common and looking at data itâs more like 25% on average. So | |
even if it replaces 100% of coding (unlikely) thatâs the | |
extent of the gain. | |
kasey_junk wrote 23 hours 8 min ago: | |
Some of my biggest productivity gains with llms come from | |
areas that arenât coding. Research, summation, | |
communication and operational issues have all seen pretty | |
dramatic improvements for me when adding llms. | |
I donât think ai will replace the career of software | |
development but I do think the tools we will be using to to | |
it will be dramatically different. | |
distances wrote 1 day ago: | |
Agreed, seems it's a great day if I get close to 50% of | |
coding time. The rest is various meetings, communication, and | |
code review. | |
And even with reviews you can currently plausibly automate | |
only the code correctness check part, the juicy part of | |
reviews is always manual testing of the change and doing the | |
logical reasoning if the change is doing a meaningful thing. | |
And no, the ticket with the spec is not a reliable source of | |
this info for an LLM as it's always just a partial | |
understanding of the concept. | |
jnfno wrote 1 day ago: | |
Iâve been coding 5+ a day since the late 80s | |
And I agree. Because ultimately we donât need that much code | |
in the first place. We need robust data sets. | |
AI models will enable the data driven machine state dream. | |
Chips that self improve models will boot strap from them and | |
rely on humans to iteratively improve updates. | |
Coding like itâs 1970 in the 2020s and beyond is not that | |
high tech. | |
hightrix wrote 1 day ago: | |
Agreed. I see AI as a major tool upgrade in the same way the | |
IDE was an upgrade from text editors. It will quickly replace | |
the need to do trivial things and greatly reduce the time | |
needed to do complex things. | |
x3n0ph3n3 wrote 1 day ago: | |
It's always been a nonsense narrative with lack of grounding in | |
reality. | |
lsllc wrote 1 day ago: | |
Might even ameliorate some of the corporate RTO efforts and now s/w | |
devs will have more employment choice and a presumably more vibrant | |
job market. | |
Spartan-S63 wrote 1 day ago: | |
Iâm hoping so, too, along with another boost in salary growth since | |
theyâre immediately expensable. | |
umeshunni wrote 1 day ago: | |
The 2nd most annoying thing about section 174 was all the time you had | |
to spend classifying each engineer's time spent as R&D or 'internal | |
software'. At my last company, every year, me and my engineering lead | |
counterparts would spent almost a day reviewing each engineer's JIRA | |
tickets to reconstruct how much of their time was spent on R&D vs | |
internal software. | |
monster_truck wrote 1 day ago: | |
Why would you waste time doing this when you could just make shit up? | |
And just to clarify, that has been the MO any time I've been told to | |
do this. If it's actually important they wouldn't want your numbers | |
Cipater wrote 1 day ago: | |
>was all the time you had to spend classifying each engineer's time | |
spent as R&D or 'internal software' | |
> every year, me and my engineering lead counterparts would spend | |
almost a day | |
This is quite funny. Not even a day, almost one. | |
supriyo-biswas wrote 1 day ago: | |
At a previous employer, they used to have this process where they | |
would classify each project as being in active development or being | |
in maintenance, and even the tiniest bit of development work required | |
the "initiation" of a "project" with budget planning and approvals. | |
At the time I dismissed it as a bureaucratic process invented by the | |
company; after all, they had no dearth of leaders adding bureaucracy | |
to systems for the purpose of empire-building and, to a lesser | |
extent, asserting self-importance. However, upon reading about | |
Section 174, it made some sense, and I wonder whether they might just | |
get around to removing these processes. | |
viraptor wrote 1 day ago: | |
> and even the tiniest of development work required the | |
"initiation" of a "project" with budget planning and approvals. | |
That's fully automateable though, right? Sounds like my script to | |
upload a PR, create a JIRA ticket with the same name, link them up, | |
auto-Done on merge. | |
supriyo-biswas wrote 1 day ago: | |
At the company I was speaking of, the business approval step | |
involved many internal (and sometimes external meetings) and | |
preparation of a feature and OKR document. | |
While this was the obvious way of doing things there, without | |
this project step I also donât think itâd have been regarded | |
as a valid classification step for tax purposes. | |
samrus wrote 1 day ago: | |
You cant automate the tactical assessment of "do we want to incur | |
this tax?" Not easily anyway | |
viraptor wrote 1 day ago: | |
I meant most of the process and boilerplate being automated. | |
Someone still has to go through the rubberstamping process, but | |
at least the BS and clicks can come from the BS and clicks | |
generator. | |
lsllc wrote 1 day ago: | |
Looks like prior years can be caught up with: | |
> Companies with capitalized domestic R&D expenses from 2022â2024 can | |
elect a catch-up deduction, which could significantly improve cash flow | |
for firms engaged in innovation. | |
tomrod wrote 1 day ago: | |
If correct, this is a good thing on a generally bad, overstuffed bill. | |
Immediate expensing never should have been changed in the first place, | |
and it was always weird seeing people twist themselves in knots | |
defending it. | |
lazyeye wrote 5 hours 9 min ago: | |
Maybe for every other item in the bill there is a another group of | |
people out there who also think that "that is a good thing on a | |
generally bad, overstuffed bill". | |
tossandthrow wrote 1 day ago: | |
> Immediate expensing never should have been changed in the first | |
place | |
This is indicative of ignorance. There is a reason why we have these | |
rules. | |
trollbridge wrote 18 hours 6 min ago: | |
Sure, but not allowing expensing of software R&D was asinine. | |
tomrod wrote 20 hours 2 min ago: | |
Please expound | |
tossandthrow wrote 18 hours 36 min ago: | |
Ofcause. | |
Fundamentally there are reasons why we don't allow companies to | |
funnel all operational profits into capital assets without them | |
paying taxes. | |
An analogy would be a company that used all their profits to | |
extract gold from the ground such that they get the labor worth | |
of gold out. In doing so they would effeciently dodge paying | |
taxes of their profits. | |
Now back to your comment: you portray it is as only good that | |
this law was changes | |
. And in doing so you leave out these details that essentially | |
leads to instantiating laws like these. | |
rsync wrote 18 hours 25 min ago: | |
Your analogy suggests a deferment of taxes paid but not | |
elimination. | |
In your example, they still own all the gold and would | |
eventually pay taxes on any liquidation. | |
I bring this up because I, too, am as interested in your parent | |
to know the original inspiration for these parts of the tax | |
code⦠| |
Further: I have a suspicion that this should be applied | |
differently to C-corps vs. pass through entities in the same | |
way that corporate taxes and retained earnings are⦠| |
tossandthrow wrote 17 hours 28 min ago: | |
The depends on how you implement it. | |
You could also just don't allow to deduct taxes on the work | |
out into digging out the gold. | |
In the end I do not care. But i feel like people would be | |
equally ignorant if it was proposed to tax the software in | |
other ways (eg VAT on the derived services from operating). | |
Regardless, these are the discussions to have. | |
mindslight wrote 1 day ago: | |
Twisting not required. Depreciation straightforwardly applies to | |
every other business capital expenditure. Hire someone to put a new | |
roof on a rental property, and you're out the tens of thousands of | |
dollars cash while only getting an immediate deduction for one | |
thirtieth of the value. If you were expecting to pay that cash out of | |
income, it's effectively a realized income and then reinvestment. | |
The recent (-ly undone) change went against decades of how things | |
were, was crippling for medium size cashflow-positive startups, | |
effectively increased taxes, etc. But it was really just a | |
straightforward application of the general principles that apply to | |
most everything else. | |
AnthonyMouse wrote 1 day ago: | |
> The recent (-ly undone) change went against decades of how things | |
were, was crippling for medium size cashflow-positive startups, | |
effectively increased taxes, etc. But it was really just a | |
straightforward application of the general principles that apply to | |
most everything else. | |
The error was in reconciling them by getting rid of it for software | |
R&D instead of allowing other business expenses to be deducted when | |
they're paid for as well. | |
For large stable incumbents that have the same expenses every year, | |
the difference doesn't matter except in the first years after you | |
make the change, because it doesn't matter if you deduct all of | |
this year's expense this year or 5% of each of the last 20 years' | |
expenses this year, they add up to the same deduction every year. | |
Where it matters is for new challengers, because they don't have | |
arbitrarily many years worth of legacy expenses to deduct, so their | |
deduction in their first year will be less than their incumbent | |
competitor's. | |
It also creates a disincentive (or competitive disadvantage) to | |
increase long-term investments. If some existing company had been | |
making a $5M investment every year but is now facing new foreign | |
competition and needs to increase it to $10M in order to stay | |
competitive, they're in the same position as the upstart. Moreover, | |
then they may not be able to do it, because they were going to have | |
to run lean and divert the $5M profit they usually make to | |
increasing their capital investments, but then the government is | |
expecting tax on most of that $5M which means they can't spend it | |
this year it even though it's ultimately a deduction. | |
Notice what this does specifically in the case of real estate: If | |
rents start going up the normal incentive is to build new housing, | |
but now you have to put out all the money to build a new building | |
in year 0 and not get to deduct it for decades. Is that the | |
incentive we want? Probably not. | |
trollbridge wrote 18 hours 2 min ago: | |
The immediate effect of this is that one of my customers simply | |
cranked up the amount they can spend on R&D this year by the | |
amount of the tax savings. Which is substantial, because they | |
were only planning to expense 20% of what they would pay us, and | |
budget paying about 25% in income taxes on the rest. | |
So out of $100,000, thatâs $17,600 more in spending, or a 17.6% | |
increase. And they can expense that extra $17,600 too. | |
mindslight wrote 21 hours 4 min ago: | |
Sure, a lot of that understanding was included in my recognition | |
of the downsides. | |
The fundamental dynamic is that the government wants there to be | |
a forcing function on having to actually realize profits, so that | |
taxes have to be paid in a timely fashion. They don't want people | |
to be able to reinvest all of the effective profit and keep | |
kicking the can into the future indefinitely. Capital gains and | |
retirement plans are exceptions, each for their own reasons. | |
phonon wrote 14 hours 29 min ago: | |
...and 1031 Exchanges. People defer profits on real estate | |
across generations, now. | |
AnthonyMouse wrote 17 hours 40 min ago: | |
> The fundamental dynamic is that the government wants there to | |
be a forcing function on having to actually realize profits, so | |
that taxes have to be paid in a timely fashion. They don't want | |
people to be able to reinvest all of the effective profit and | |
keep kicking the can into the future indefinitely. | |
I would have to question whether that is actually a good | |
policy. | |
To begin with, it doesn't work unless you do it consistently, | |
which they don't. Then businesses defer the taxes anyway, and | |
you get huge market distortions because it majorly affects | |
where investments go, e.g. we're then lacking for sufficient | |
housing construction because it's heavily disfavored by the tax | |
code over alternatives. But doing it consistently also doesn't | |
work because many of the industries that have exemptions have | |
them because they would implode without them. In particular, | |
anything that experiences significant foreign competition would | |
be screwed as soon as the other country does it the other way. | |
It would also create bad incentives -- you'd have to get rid of | |
the retirement deferral, damage everyone's retirement savings | |
and create perverse incentives for immediate spending over | |
saving/investing. | |
Moreover, the main reason we use an income tax instead of a | |
consumption tax is in order to have a progressive rate | |
structure. If you want to put a different effective rate on | |
someone who spends $1M/year than someone to spends $10k/year, a | |
merchant collecting the tax at the point of sale wouldn't know | |
what rate to charge. (There are also other ways to achieve | |
this, like combining a flat consumption tax with a UBI to | |
achieve the desired effective rate curve, but that's a more | |
systemic change.) | |
But if you allow business expenses to be deducted immediately, | |
that's another path to having a consumption tax with a | |
progressive effective rate curve. The rate can be higher for | |
the people who spend more but you still have to pay the tax | |
when you want to buy a yacht or a personal mansion. It also | |
gives you a way out of the "they borrow money to avoid | |
realizing capital gains" thing: Make the loan taxable income in | |
the year it's taken out and a deduction in the year it's paid | |
back, but if it's a business loan then you get a canceling | |
deduction when you take it out and invest it (and the same for | |
e.g. student loans), which makes it so you can't spend the | |
money on personal consumption without paying the tax. | |
Meanwhile if you always reinvest 100% of profits then you don't | |
pay tax until you stop, but that's what we want them to do. | |
Build housing, hire people, invent things, donate to charity. | |
These things are tax deductions on purpose. | |
mindslight wrote 16 hours 27 min ago: | |
> But if you allow business expenses to be deducted | |
immediately, that's another path to having a consumption tax | |
with a progressive effective rate curve | |
If I had written a longer comment, I was going to go in a | |
similar direction. But I think it's a bit fallacious to be | |
talking about that when it would make the tax code even more | |
lopsided to heavily taxing wage earners. Like when you buy a | |
car to be able to get to work, you can't even deduct that | |
from your earnings even though it is a necessary expense for | |
being able to earn that income. If that last part were | |
changed - both with direct deduction of things like living | |
expenses and also unrestricted traditional IRA | |
contributions/withdrawals, then it would make sense to start | |
talking in terms of moving towards a de facto consumption | |
tax. But without doing that, it just seems like a rallying | |
cry to further reduce taxes on the investment-owning classes. | |
(I'm using the word "deduct" in the business tax sense of | |
direct subtraction, not the personal income tax sense where | |
your expenses have to rise above the level that is otherwise | |
a personal exemption. Being able to deduct so many specific | |
expenses would of course end up placing a heavy bookkeeping | |
burden on individuals, though) | |
djoldman wrote 1 day ago: | |
? | |
This applied to salaries, it wasn't a capital expenditure as | |
"capital expenditure" has traditionally been defined. | |
This was an operational expense. | |
tomrod wrote 1 day ago: | |
While accurate, capex captures the building of things, like | |
hiring a company (that pays salaries) to build a factory. | |
mindslight wrote 1 day ago: | |
Yes, salaries spent to build a capital asset. Half the cost of a | |
new roof is paying salaries, right? And yet, you still depreciate | |
the whole value of the completed thing, not just the cost of the | |
input materials. If you hire the roofers yourself as employees, | |
you're still supposed to be accounting this way - although | |
obviously there are many ways to fudge it. | |
The point is that building a piece of software that is going to | |
be in use for several+ years is creating an asset. It just goes | |
against our intuition since this industry is so driven by fast | |
fashion, and the bookkeeping of specific components, their | |
depreciation schedules, early end of life, (etc) seems like | |
needless complexity. | |
eastbound wrote 1 day ago: | |
The debate is the duration of the capex in software. The law | |
will oscillate between âSoftware lasts 15 years!â and | |
âbasically throw-awayâ. | |
At this moment, the law came back to 1-year deprecation. | |
mindslight wrote 20 hours 51 min ago: | |
"1-year deprecation [sic]" would mean that salaries paid in | |
the second half of the (fiscal) year are only half deductible | |
in that year, and half in the next. | |
But seriously what is with this trend of throwing out simple | |
reframings as if they're insightful on their own? | |
creato wrote 1 day ago: | |
At least 50% of time on every software team I've ever been on | |
was spent on maintenance and fixing bugs. | |
You can expense such time as opex, but it has to be justified, | |
and that's often difficult to do. Did you fix a bug by | |
refactoring some code to avoid the problem? Is that capex or | |
opex? Can you convince the IRS of such? | |
The old (and now new) rules eliminated this accounting game and | |
uncertainty. | |
mindslight wrote 1 day ago: | |
Sure. I get that having to facilitate accounting takes away | |
from programming, and that nothing is cut in dry with the | |
IRS. I'm not even a fan of the general idea of mandatory | |
depreciation schedules, seeing depreciation as more of an | |
artifact that fell out from double entry book keeping's | |
proliferation of different types of accounts. My only point | |
was that this is just the same regime that everything else | |
has to deal with. | |
For example if you pay someone to fix a leaky roof and they | |
replace a section of a given size, can you call it a | |
repair/maintenance expense or should you be depreciating it | |
as an improvement to the building? Can you convince the IRS | |
of such? The only reason this has more straightforward | |
answers is that accountants have been answering this question | |
longer. | |
earth2mars wrote 1 day ago: | |
This. TCJA removed it and OBBBA restored it. What am I missing here | |
rhinoceraptor wrote 1 day ago: | |
Classic 45-47 maneuver, first create a problem. Then solve it, | |
often poorly and incompletely. Finally, claim victory, another 300 | |
IQ 5D chess move in the books. | |
FireBeyond wrote 20 hours 18 min ago: | |
Or set a little timing booby trap. Like in this, "We're going to | |
cut Medicaid, but only after the midterms, so if you start | |
screaming about it, we'll blame the Dems for it." | |
lesuorac wrote 1 day ago: | |
It lets you claim BBB doesn't increase the budget by as much as | |
it'll ultimately do. | |
By having a bunch of random provision in BBB that generate revenue | |
it lowers it's impact on the defect and then you can repeal them | |
later on after passing BBB. | |
xp84 wrote 1 day ago: | |
Itâs an overstuffed bill because nobody will compromise on anything | |
so the only way to pass a bill that has anything even remotely | |
controversial to either party is one reconciliation bill a year. | |
onlyrealcuzzo wrote 1 day ago: | |
Which is why we need to get rid of reconciliation and go back to | |
actually needing to get compromise, but hell will freeze over twice | |
before that happens. | |
pfannkuchen wrote 1 day ago: | |
It seems like a more formalized quid pro quo system is needed so | |
that political favors can be split across bills and relied upon. | |
This sort of thing seems to be human nature, it doesnât help | |
anyone to pretend in the procedural rules that it doesnât happen. | |
disgruntledphd2 wrote 1 day ago: | |
This was called pork when it used to happen and people were very | |
angry about it. | |
pfannkuchen wrote 10 hours 46 min ago: | |
Pork wasnât formalized, though, was it? | |
Though I agree that favors did seem to be more separated across | |
bills in the past. This is an interesting manifestation of | |
congress becoming a lower trust system, I suppose. | |
dragonwriter wrote 1 day ago: | |
> Itâs an overstuffed bill because nobody will compromise on | |
anything so the only way to pass a bill that has anything even | |
remotely controversial to either party is one reconciliation bill a | |
year. | |
No, and lots of controversial bills have passed other than as | |
reconciliation bills, and especially so during trifectas where they | |
"controversial" within the minority party but broadly supported by | |
the majority; reconciliation is necessary to pass something that | |
strains unity in the majority party and is uniformly opposed by | |
(not "controversial to") the minority party, perhaps. | |
sugarpimpdorsey wrote 1 day ago: | |
The last time something like that happened was probably the | |
Patriot Act. | |
rpiguy wrote 1 day ago: | |
Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) was the most sweeping | |
legislation ever passed via reconciliation. | |
apsec112 wrote 1 day ago: | |
Obamacare was passed via regular order (60 Senate votes), not | |
reconciliation. There was a follow-up package to tweak it | |
that passed via reconciliation in 2010, but the original bill | |
was regular order. It's the only (very brief) window where | |
one party has held 60 Senate seats since 1977. | |
rpiguy wrote 8 hours 16 min ago: | |
Whoops! I remembered the reconciliation but not the initial | |
vote. | |
Calavar wrote 1 day ago: | |
The 2024 Ukraine defense funding bill passed despite having < | |
50% support in the majority party in the House, and it was not | |
part of a reconciliation. | |
cheriot wrote 1 day ago: | |
In the last 10 years, have there been more than a handful of | |
bills that got 60 votes in the senate? | |
I wouldn't like what the current congress would do without the | |
filibuster, but at this point a paralyzed system might be worse. | |
margalabargala wrote 1 day ago: | |
Absolutely. Many bills in the Senate in that time have gotten | |
over 90. Here's one that passed 95-2 that I picked at random. | |
[1] A lot of what happens in Congress is obvious to do and | |
everyone agrees. While the media certainly focuses on the | |
handful of things the two parties are at odds over, most of the | |
lawmaking done by Congress is not controversial between | |
parties, and is simply passed, so we don't hear about it. | |
[1]: https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bi... | |
a_wild_dandan wrote 1 day ago: | |
What does that matter? We're talking trifectas here, not | |
supermajorities. The filibuster is a cute remnant of "decorum." | |
It's a vestigial rule which will disappear when too | |
inconvenient. (Fun question with not-so-fun answers: why isn't | |
the filibuster gone already?) | |
Spivak wrote 15 hours 8 min ago: | |
Because I don't think it's vestigial, I think it's serving an | |
important function of governance that never made it into the | |
official | |
rules but is nonetheless necessary as a stabilizing effect. | |
It doesn't have to be the filibuster but something ought to | |
provide the effect. It should be easier to block legislation | |
than to pass it. It wouldn't be a good thing if you could | |
have huge policy swings when a 51-49 becomes 49-51. Being | |
able to, with effort, demand specific pieces of legislation | |
reach a higher bar biases us toward the status quo. | |
ethbr1 wrote 1 day ago: | |
> (Fun question with not-so-fun answers: why isn't the | |
filibuster gone already?) | |
Because both parties are scared eventually the other party | |
will be back in the majority. | |
int_19h wrote 10 hours 31 min ago: | |
I don't think Republicans need to worry about Dems retaking | |
the Senate anytime soon. | |
actionfromafar wrote 1 day ago: | |
So it seems like a good canary? If itâs removed, the | |
ruling party is no longer afraid it will be ever removed | |
from power. | |
9283409232 wrote 1 day ago: | |
The answer is to vote out politicians. Getting ranked choice | |
voting on your states ballot would go a long way to fixing | |
this. They would not have Mamdani on the ballot for NY mayor if | |
it wasn't for ranked choice voting. Certain politicans know | |
this and have made RCV illegal in their state. Get RCV on the | |
ballot for your state. | |
FireBeyond wrote 20 hours 22 min ago: | |
> Certain politicans know this and have made RCV illegal in | |
their state. | |
That would be Republicans. | |
While Democrats have pushed across multiple states for | |
changing voting mechanisms, Republicans in eleven states have | |
pre-emptively banned any and all use of RCV at any level | |
within the state. | |
AnthonyMouse wrote 1 day ago: | |
Score voting (or STAR) is better. | |
9283409232 wrote 22 hours 16 min ago: | |
Anything is better than what we have and ranked choice | |
voting is the most popular alternative. | |
AnthonyMouse wrote 18 hours 6 min ago: | |
If you're doing a new thing anyway then it makes no sense | |
to do something worse instead of something better. | |
Popularity is determined by people; make the better thing | |
the popular one. | |
9283409232 wrote 17 hours 53 min ago: | |
It absolutely makes sense. You need buy in from the | |
public. RCV is the most known alternative and it has | |
taken a decade to get it that far. If you want to start | |
the work of informing people about STAR voting then be | |
my guess but RCV is a tremendous improvement from what | |
we have and an acceptable alternative. | |
nerdsniper wrote 16 hours 26 min ago: | |
Personally I think âapproval votingâ is almost | |
as good as RCV but orders of magnitude easier to sell | |
to the public. | |
Thereâs just a checkbox next to each candidate and | |
you check the box next to any candidate youâre | |
âokayâ with. Results in the most âokay-estâ�… | |
candidates getting elected so when the winner is | |
announced everyone goes ââ¦okay.â | |
Also could make primaries less important, because | |
multiple candidates from a party could theoretically | |
run for the general election without splitting votes. | |
Communication is easier because in RCV the candidate | |
who gets the most #1 votes doesnât necessarily win | |
which could lead to a loss of confidence in the | |
system. Its very easy to tell the American public | |
âthis guy got the most checkmarksâ and no one | |
gets confused. | |
9283409232 wrote 15 hours 30 min ago: | |
If I recall the problem with approval voting is | |
that it is much easier to tamper with than RCV. | |
Filling in an empty bubble is a lot easier than | |
changing the order of ranking on a ballot | |
nerdsniper wrote 14 hours 51 min ago: | |
Thatâs a good point. Seems like that could be a | |
problem for current ballots too - add a second | |
checkmark to invalidate ballots voting for the | |
âotherâ guy. Doesnât seem to be a | |
widespread issue, but detecting it for current | |
ballots would be more obvious. | |
Maybe that breaks this idea. Maybe ideally | |
youâd maybe want a touchscreen+printer to fill | |
in the bubbles with printer ink and show it to | |
the voter for them to double-check before putting | |
in the stack (or, if wrong bubble filled, put it | |
in rejected stack). | |
Would love more feedback from people to get a | |
better sense of all pros and cons. | |
AnthonyMouse wrote 17 hours 37 min ago: | |
Most people don't actually know anything about any of | |
this. If they've heard of RCV at all their | |
understanding of it is at the level of "it's | |
something different than the status quo and | |
supposedly better". You could swap in STAR and they | |
mostly wouldn't even notice that you've changed | |
anything. But you'd notice the difference in the | |
election outcomes, in a good way. | |
9283409232 wrote 16 hours 32 min ago: | |
Enough people know about it that it has been put on | |
ballots in several states and has had strong pushes | |
in other states while STAR hasn't at all. If you | |
want to get outside and start informing people | |
about STAR then please do but RCV has a decade long | |
head start and is the path of least resistance. | |
boroboro4 wrote 1 day ago: | |
Not important but Mamdani wouldâve won without ranked | |
choice voting too, it didnât play a role in the end. | |
tialaramex wrote 1 day ago: | |
We can't know. Ranked choice changes how people vote. | |
In particular it gives people permission to vote for a | |
candidate they like but don't expect to be able to win. | |
mindslight wrote 1 day ago: | |
RCV / Ranked Pairs of course. The IRV decision process is | |
still a relic of the two party system, with the possibility | |
for some pretty terrible strategic-voting dynamics as votes | |
diverge from just two major parties. | |
dragonwriter wrote 4 hours 56 min ago: | |
RCV is another name for IRV, it is not a generic name for | |
the use of ranked ballots. | |
apsec112 wrote 1 day ago: | |
"Despite Democrats holding thin majorities in both chambers | |
during a period of intense political polarization, the 117th | |
Congress (2021-2023) oversaw the passage of numerous | |
significant bills, including the Inflation Reduction Act, | |
American Rescue Plan Act, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs | |
Act, Postal Service Reform Act, Bipartisan Safer Communities | |
Act, CHIPS and Science Act, Honoring Our PACT Act, Electoral | |
Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act, and | |
Respect for Marriage Act." | |
All of these except the first two were bipartisan and got 60 | |
Senate votes (or more) | |
thomquaid wrote 1 day ago: | |
[1] It does seem like things are trending toward less public | |
laws passing over the last decade, as well as record low time | |
in session and other congressional activity. | |
[1]: https://www.senate.gov/reference/resources/pdf/yearl... | |
n_u wrote 1 day ago: | |
It also classifies software development as R&D which together with | |
immediate expensing for R&D undoes the Section 174 changes as far as I | |
understand. | |
âFor purposes of this section, any amount paid or incurred in | |
connection with the development of any software shall be treated as a | |
research or experimental expenditureâ | |
Page 303 of bill here [1] Original article about Section 174 tax code | |
causing layoffs [2] Post from @dang with more info about Section 174 | |
[1]: https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr1/BILLS-119hr1eas.pdf | |
[2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44180533 | |
[3]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44226145 | |
Thorrez wrote 1 day ago: | |
>It also classifies software development as R&D | |
The TCJA (passed in 2017) already did that (effective 2022). So it | |
sounds like this new bill is keeping that, but changing the deduction | |
rules back to what they were before 2022. | |
See this previous discussion of the TCJA: | |
> all "software development" is now an R&E expense. [1] (AIUI, "R&D" | |
(research and development) and "R&E" (research and experimentation) | |
are synonyms.) | |
[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34627712 | |
tareqak wrote 1 day ago: | |
Page 301 | |
> there shall allowed as a deduction any domestic research and | |
experimental expenditures which are paid or incurred by the taxpayer | |
in the current taxable year | |
AFAIK, there was no domestic vs. foreign R&D distinction in section | |
174 before. | |
Thorrez wrote 1 day ago: | |
There was a domestic vs foreign distinction in the TCJA, passed in | |
2017, which took effect in 2022: | |
> 174 to require taxpayers to amortize specified R&E expenditures | |
ratably over a five-year period for domestic expenditures and a | |
15-year period for specified R&E expenditures attributed to foreign | |
research | |
[1]: https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2022/nov/amort... | |
mjoin wrote 1 day ago: | |
That's nuts | |
rufus_foreman wrote 1 day ago: | |
Actual title is "House Passes Tax Bill Sending to President for | |
Signature â Details Inside". | |
tareqak wrote 1 day ago: | |
I came across the article on Techmeme, and they used the following | |
title: âPresident Trump signs the One Big Beautiful Bill, which | |
allows immediate deduction of US software labor; foreign R&D still | |
must be amortized over 15 yearsâ. | |
9283409232 wrote 1 day ago: | |
I think editorializing the title is fine in this case. The original | |
headline is not descriptive and buries the part that would be | |
relevant to HN. | |
tareqak wrote 1 day ago: | |
> Foreign R&D must still be amortized over 15 years | |
__turbobrew__ wrote 21 hours 2 min ago: | |
How does that actually work? Most large companies open foreign | |
subsidiaries owned by the parent, for example âMicrosoftâ will | |
own âMicrosoft Canadaâ and employees working in Canada work for | |
âMicrosoft Canadaâ and NOT the main âMicrosoftâ company. | |
The R&D done by Canadians is booked against Microsoft Canada, so in | |
my mind the Canadian laws around R&D would apply and not the USA laws | |
of 15 years old amortization? | |
Am I missing something? | |
eric-burel wrote 22 hours 54 min ago: | |
What qualifies as forein here? Employee located abroad, or hiring | |
subcontractors from other countries? | |
me551ah wrote 1 day ago: | |
Sure, foreign R&D still gets amortized over 15 years (NPV â59 % of | |
a full write-off, so you âloseâ ~8.6 % of your R&D spend in | |
present-value terms, and only 6.7 % of the cost is deductible in year | |
1, creating a 19.6 % cash-tax gap). | |
But offshore wages are often 50â70 % below U.S. rates: | |
⢠Even after the slower amortization drag, hiring at half the cost | |
nets you ~30 % total savings on R&D headcount. | |
⢠On a pure cash basis you only need ~20 % lower wages to break | |
even; most offshore markets easily exceed that. | |
⢠So the labor-cost arbitrage far outweighs the tax timing penalty | |
unless your foreign salaries are less than ~20 % below U.S. levels. | |
In short: the 15-year amort rule hurts your tax deduction, but 50 %+ | |
lower offshore wages more than make up for it. | |
macinjosh wrote 1 day ago: | |
Awesome, this literally could not be better for American tech | |
workers. | |
loeg wrote 1 day ago: | |
You might look at the rest of the bill. | |
earth2mars wrote 1 day ago: | |
Yes, but why the domestic r&d must be amortized only within 5 | |
years? One way it is harder for finance to deduct all the expense | |
within 1 year or they have to amortize only within 5 years. In case | |
of foreign r&d expenses though they cannot detect in the year they | |
incur but they have 15 years amortize. So I don't get the benefit | |
of. In fact if they haven't touched this it could have been much | |
better. In tcja they made it worse. And they fix it partially by | |
making it deductible within the year they incur for domestic r&d. | |
But the amortization still kills it. | |
beebmam wrote 1 day ago: | |
There's also H-1B (and other worker visa) restrictions/costs | |
imposed. Overall, quite good for the American tech worker | |
lukeschlather wrote 1 day ago: | |
IDK, sounds like it's a bunch of stupid misc. fees. So instead of | |
just raising the minimum wage for H1Bs and indexing it to | |
inflation, they raise taxes (and these taxes on H1Bs don't seem | |
like a consequential funding source. They might even bring in | |
less tax revenue than raising the H1B minimum wage to where it | |
should be if it had originally been indexed to inflation.) | |
autobodie wrote 1 day ago: | |
>raising the minimum wage for H1Bs and indexing it to inflation | |
Huh? Not even regular minimum wage is indexed to inflation. | |
What are you talking about? | |
lukeschlather wrote 17 hours 13 min ago: | |
In Washington state it is. But I'm talking about the minimum | |
salary to get an H1B visa which is $60,000. Given that H1Bs | |
are intended to substitute for skilled professionals where | |
the prevailing wage is easily twice that these days, raising | |
it and indexing it to inflation seems like common sense. | |
seany wrote 1 day ago: | |
Huh? Eliminating h1bs tracks better with what's going on. | |
lesuorac wrote 1 day ago: | |
Meh. | |
If you hire H-1B you should be required to pay a fee greater than | |
it costs to educate an equivalent American. Otherwise you're | |
always in the situation where you have to hire foreigners because | |
no Americans are trained. (or in reality you hire foreigners | |
because they're cheaper for the same role which this no longer | |
makes it the case) | |
calvinmorrison wrote 1 day ago: | |
NJ, home of the H1B scam. I worked with these guys at some | |
large corporations on contract and as an employeed (F500 | |
companies). I felt bad for them. Modern serfs. They lived in | |
housing owned by you know the names of these indian firms that | |
do 'anything'. Companies love the low cost, unlimited hours, | |
and no need to hire, they're contractors. they sign deals with | |
big indian vendors to provide everythingunderthesun. | |
Poor dudes are like ' this is my chance to make it in America' | |
and the high caste indian management treats them like dirt. | |
The 'old boomers yelling at young people' is a myth in | |
professional America compared to the absolute screaming insults | |
you'd hear hurled at these guys. | |
And if they messed up? boom, gone, next guy flown in. | |
supportengineer wrote 1 day ago: | |
Sounds like a CRIME to me. | |
throwaway7783 wrote 1 day ago: | |
I don't see anything supporting this in the text of OBBB, nor in | |
the definition of domestic research expense ( [1] ). Where did | |
you see this? | |
Edit: Oh you mean costs in general, not in the context of section | |
147 | |
[1]: https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-regs/research_credit_basic_s... | |
Izikiel43 wrote 1 day ago: | |
Source? | |
beebmam wrote 1 day ago: | |
Extra $250 fee for visa applications: [1] 3.5% remittance fees | |
on sending money out of the US: [2] Also (in above source), no | |
ACA subsidies for H-1B visa holders (and others), which likely | |
means employers they will have to pay more for health care if | |
they want to cover their immigrant workers | |
[1]: https://judiciary.house.gov/media/press-releases/big-b... | |
[2]: https://www.globalimmigrationblog.com/2025/06/what-are... | |
unmole wrote 1 day ago: | |
> 3.5% remittance fees on sending money out of the US: | |
The version of the bill that passed a 1% excise is applicable | |
"only to any remittance transfer for which the sender | |
provides cash, a money order, a cashierâs check, or any | |
other similar physical instrument". | |
ndiddy wrote 22 hours 29 min ago: | |
For comparison, India taxes remittances at 20%. | |
kondu wrote 19 hours 42 min ago: | |
This is not true. There's a TCS of 20%, which is an | |
advance tax payment that you can claim back in your | |
income tax returns at the end of the year, and it not an | |
additional tax. This is just a (bad) mechanism to stop | |
black money from leaving the country. | |
ndiddy wrote 11 hours 39 min ago: | |
Thanks I didn't realize that it was refundable, I guess | |
"India makes people loan 20% of their foreign | |
remittances to the government interest-free" would be | |
more accurate. | |
unmole wrote 6 hours 36 min ago: | |
> "India makes people loan 20% of their foreign | |
remittances to the government interest-free" would be | |
more accurate. | |
It wouldn't. The TCS can be offset against other tax | |
liabilities. The government pays out 6% interest on | |
excess tax payments. For reference, 364 day T-bills | |
are currently yielding ~5.5%. | |
The idea is to force reporting and add friction. Not | |
raise revenue. | |
zhivota wrote 23 hours 47 min ago: | |
Ok thank you I was really worried for a second. Capital | |
controls are on the bingo card but I was hoping it wouldn't | |
come yet. | |
Brybry wrote 1 day ago: | |
The House's[1] SEC. 112104. EXCISE TAX ON REMITTANCE | |
TRANSFERS. 3.5% tax became 1% in the Senate's[2] SEC. 70604. | |
EXCISE TAX ON CERTAIN REMITTANCE TRANSFERS and a lot of the | |
language changed. | |
The Senate made a lot of changes (Byrd rule also nuked a lot | |
of stuff) so old articles are of limited use to the final | |
bill. | |
I don't even know if [2] is the actual final text as there is | |
neither an enrolled or public law version on congress.gov | |
yet. | |
It's super annoying how often we can't read the final text of | |
a bill before Congress votes on it. [1] | |
[2] | |
[1]: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-b... | |
[2]: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-b... | |
tareqak wrote 1 day ago: | |
Quoting all the fees in [1] > Expansion of Immigration Fees: | |
> $1,000 asylum application fee â first in U.S. history | |
> $1,000 fee for individuals paroled into the U.S. | |
> $3,500 fee for sponsors of unaccompanied children | |
> $5,000 fee for sponsors of unaccompanied children who | |
fail to appear in court | |
> $550 fee for work permits | |
> $500 application fee for Temporary Protected Status | |
(TPS) | |
> $400 fee to file a diversity immigrant visa application | |
> $250 fee to register for the Diversity Visa Lottery | |
> $250 visa integrity fee | |
> $100 year fee while asylum applications remain pending | |
> $100 fee for continuances granted in immigration court | |
> $5,000 fee for individuals ordered removed in absentia | |
> $1,500 fee to adjust status to lawful permanent resident | |
(green card) | |
> $1,050 fee for inadmissibility waivers | |
> $900 fee to appeal a decision by an immigration judge | |
> $900 fee to appeal a decision by DHS | |
> $1,325 fee to appeal in practitioner disciplinary cases | |
> $900 fee to file motions to reopen or reconsider | |
> $600 application fee for suspension of deportation | |
> $600 application fee for cancellation of removal | |
(permanent residents) | |
> $1,500 application fee for cancellation of removal | |
(non-permanent residents) | |
> $30 fee for Form I-94 (arrival/departure record), up | |
from $6 | |
[1]: https://judiciary.house.gov/media/press-releases/big... | |
apical_dendrite wrote 1 day ago: | |
The $100/year fee while an asylum case is pending means | |
that the government is charging someone for the | |
government's own inability to process cases quickly. | |
Den_VR wrote 1 day ago: | |
So payroll for R&D is now entirely tax deductible? Businesses get | |
to choose to pay taxes or do R&D for themselves? | |
alphazard wrote 1 day ago: | |
Tax deductible is a weird way of phrasing it. It's not like these | |
software companies were counting their money at the end of the | |
quarter, and then deciding to do R&D instead of paying taxes. | |
They had already paid R&D expenses to build the product, which | |
gained them revenue. Previously they weren't allowed to | |
actualize the cost of R&D all at once, so the business could be | |
losing money, and still have to pay taxes on top of the loss | |
(which is nuts). | |
This fixes the problem, so now if you spend $100 on software | |
developers, and you make $100 from the software, then you have $0 | |
income, instead of $80 income. | |
tomrod wrote 1 day ago: | |
It was also weird because people pay money on income (dividend, | |
partner payment, SCorp share, etc.) anyway, so in a long term | |
view this incentivized companies to keep fewer software | |
engineers on staff. | |
n_u wrote 1 day ago: | |
Itâs more about whether or not the company has taxable profits | |
for that year (importantly these are not the same as real | |
profits). I would read this article to understand more about how | |
being forced to amortize tax deductions for expenses affects a | |
businessâs taxes. [1] more info here too | |
[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44180533 | |
[2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44226145 | |
lazide wrote 1 day ago: | |
Either scenario taxes are paid - itâs just how and over what | |
time period. | |
tomrod wrote 1 day ago: | |
In the long run, we are all dead. 20% depreciation per year for | |
any software developed is a burden for all but the largest of | |
companies. | |
bobmcnamara wrote 1 day ago: | |
This matched capex software. | |
Weird how the depreciation schedule changes based on how the | |
software was acquired. | |
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