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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial
ARTICLE VIEW:
Trump’s tariffs, deportations and climate change are making groceries
more expensive
By Nathaniel Meyersohn, CNN
Updated:
4:00 AM EDT, Sat September 20, 2025
Source: CNN
President Donald Trump pledged to bring down grocery costs. But his
administration’s policies are contributing to an acceleration in
prices, food economists and companies say.
Grocery prices last month rose at their fastest pace in three years,
stoked by Trump’s tariffs, a crackdown on immigration, and extreme
weather hurting food production. Prices jumped 0.6% in August from the
month prior, according to the latest from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and they are up 2.7% from a year ago.
Food prices are deeply personal to consumers, and weekly grocery bills
shape their overall perceptions of the economy. More than half of
Americans count grocery costs in their lives.
Low-income and middle-income Americans, hit the hardest by rising
grocery costs, are changing where they shop and what they buy.
Companies are also taking extreme measures to appeal to shoppers
strained by higher prices, such as bringing back paper coupons.
“Food prices are top of mind for consumers and people across the
country. It’s dominating the conversation across kitchen tables,”
said David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University.
“It’s also a political flash point. People went to the voting booth
last campaign voting for their candidate to lower grocery prices.”
Ortega said the greatest price impact is on foods that either rely
heavily on immigrant labor to produce in the United States, such as
fruit and vegetables, or those grown almost exclusively in other
countries and subject to steep tariffs, like coffee and bananas.
“The policy agenda that we’re seeing is more likely to increase the
price of food,” he said.
If tariffs remain at current levels, food prices will rise 3.4% in the
short-run and stay 2.5% higher in the long-run, Yale University’s
Budget Lab Based on the tariffs imposed by Trump this year, the average
effective tariff rate in the United States has spiked to the highest
level since 1935, according to The Budget Lab.
But White House spokesperson Kush Desai said that one month of data
does not make a trend, and the rate of inflation under Trump has slowed
from the final months of the Biden administration.
Trump has struck “unprecedented trade deals and trillions in historic
investment commitments” that are “laying the groundwork for the
long-term restoration of American Greatness,” Desai said.
Tariff-driven hikes
The Trump administration said that trade deals with other countries
would include tariff exceptions on items such as coffee and bananas.
But right now, heavily imported foods are seeing some of the sharpest
increases.
surged by 3.6% last month, the largest one-month increase since 2011,
according to the latest Consumer Price Index. Coffee prices are up
20.9% so far this year, a near-record annual increase. The US gets
most of its coffee from Brazil, and Brazilian imports – including
coffee – began facing last month.
It’s not just your cup of joe. America is highly dependent on other
countries for most of its fresh fruit and vegetables. Imports make up
60% of fresh fruit and 38% of fresh vegetables in the United States,
according to the
Prices on these items are rising. Last month, apple prices increased
3.5%, lettuce 3.5% and bananas 2.1% from the month prior, the index
showed.
Tomato prices were up 4.5%. The United States depends on Mexico for a
variety of fresh tomatoes, most of which in July after a nearly
three-decade-old trade agreement expired.
Immigrant workforces in fear
Agricultural production in the United States relies on undocumented
workers. Undocumented immigrant farmworkers who produce fruits and
vegetables account for 42% of farmworkers in the United States,
according to the .
That means the administration’s crackdown on immigration, including
at job sites, is impacting the food industry. Immigration raids have
hurt major growing areas, leaving crops unharvested at California farms
and scared off workers at dairy farms in and other states.
Since January, 1.2 million foreign-born workers have the labor force.
Agricultural employment dropped 6.5% from March to July, a loss of
about 155,000 workers, reversing two years of growth.
A shrinking workforce will also chill investments in the food supply
chain, said William Masters, a professor of food and nutrition
economics at Tufts University.
Having fewer immigrant workers has pushed labor costs up, fueling
higher prices, economists say.
“If you’re thinking of a new orchard, greenhouse, or warehouse, you
wouldn’t do that now because you would not get workers,” he said.
Trump’s policies aren’t the only factor contributing to the rise in
prices— climate change is also boosting costs.
Supply shortages in top orange-growing areas, worsened by climate
change-influenced disasters like more severe hurricanes in Florida and
intense droughts in Brazil, have . Prices for oranges jumped 0.9% last
month and 5.2% annually.
Beef prices increased 2.7% last month and were up 13.9% annually,
driven by smaller cattle herds due to drought and processor closings.
Cattle herd sizes are at their in 74 years, according to the American
Farm Bureau Federation.
Kroger bringing back coupons
Amid the higher costs of getting food on grocery store shelves,
companies say a two-tier economy has opened up among shoppers.
Wealthier shoppers are still buying premium foods and ingredients, but
lower-income shoppers are stressed. They’re buying smaller sizes and
skipping discretionary items, purchasing only the essentials.
Low- and middle-income households are “making smaller but more
frequent trips and they’re buying more private label products.
They’re also eating out less,” Kroger CEO Ron Sargent said on an
earnings call last week. “Higher income households — while
they’re also concerned about the economy and food prices —
they’re still spending. And they’re splurging on some of the
premium products.”
Looming cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP),
or food stamps, will further strain low-income customers.
Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act makes the largest cuts in the
program’s 86-year history and will cause roughly a month to lose some
or all of their SNAP benefits.
Kroger is bringing back paper coupons, a move that how shoppers are
relying on promotions to lower their grocery bills. The company
discontinued some paper coupons in 2023, prompting pushback from older
and less tech-savvy customers.
But Sargent said Kroger is doing an about-face on coupons to reach
customers “who don’t have a $600 iPhone.”
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