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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial | |
ARTICLE VIEW: | |
Recommending Covid-19 vaccines for everyone in the US could save | |
thousands more lives than limiting to high-risk groups | |
By Deidre McPhillips, CNN | |
Updated: | |
6:40 PM EDT, Fri September 19, 2025 | |
Source: CNN | |
As a group of advisers to the US Centers for Disease Control and | |
Prevention met this week to discuss on who should get the updated | |
Covid-19 shot this season, a newly published analysis from dozens of | |
researchers emphasizes the “substantial” benefits of broad vaccine | |
recommendations. | |
The US Food and Drug Administration has already made significant | |
changes to this season’s shots: to adults 65 and older, as well as | |
younger people who are at higher risk of severe Covid-19. The CDC’s | |
Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, voted Friday to | |
recommend that people who want a Covid-19 vaccine must first consult | |
with a health care provider, although they voted against a | |
recommendation that a prescription be required. | |
But scientific projection models from nine teams of researchers, | |
summarized in a in the journal JAMA Network Open, show that sticking to | |
a universal Covid-19 vaccine recommendation – as has been in place in | |
the US in recent years – has the potential to save thousands more | |
lives than limiting the recommendation to high-risk groups. | |
“While focusing on vaccination among individuals at the highest risk | |
for severe outcomes, including those aged 65 and older and those with | |
comorbidities, remains an effective ongoing strategy, our scenario | |
projections demonstrate that maintaining the recommendation for all | |
individuals to receive reformulated vaccines has the potential to save | |
thousands more lives through both direct and indirect effects,” the | |
researchers wrote. | |
Over the past five years, the has provided nearly 20 rounds of | |
projections estimating Covid-19 disease burden. Various teams build | |
their models with a unique set of assumptions, which are then combined | |
into ensemble projections for six scenarios based on different vaccine | |
recommendations and viral immune escape — vulnerability to things | |
like a new variant or waning immunity from prior infection or | |
vaccination. The group’s work was used to guide the expansion of the | |
in 2021 and in fall 2022. | |
Models for last season – covering the period from April 2024 to April | |
2025 – included a worst-case scenario in which there was no vaccine | |
recommendation and high immune escape, and a best-case scenario in | |
which there was a universal vaccine recommendation and low immune | |
escape. | |
The scenario that the researchers say was most similar to the way last | |
season actually played out involved high immune escape. The universal | |
vaccine recommendation that was in place in this scenario was projected | |
to reduce hospitalizations by 11% and deaths by 13% – essentially | |
averting 104,000 hospitalizations and 9,000 deaths. | |
If vaccine recommendations had been limited to high-risk people, the | |
benefit of the vaccine would still be substantial: an 8% reduction in | |
hospitalizations and 10% reduction in deaths. But the expanded | |
recommendations for all ages were projected to prevent an additional | |
28,000 hospitalizations and 2,000 deaths, the study showed. | |
Adults 65 and older benefit the most under all vaccine scenarios, both | |
directly and indirectly. A universal vaccine recommendation would | |
reduce the burden of Covid-19 on seniors by an additional 3% to 4%, | |
averting about 11,000 hospitalizations and 1,000 deaths in this group. | |
“This finding suggests substantial indirect benefits of universal | |
vaccination and the continued value of broad vaccine | |
recommendations,” the researchers wrote. | |
The projections for last season were first published by the Scenario | |
Modeling Hub in June 2024, to help inform decision-making ahead of last | |
year’s ACIP meeting. Actual epidemiological trends differed from | |
assumptions that were made in the models at that time – burden was | |
greater than expected during the summer and less in the winter – but | |
projected deaths aligned closely with the models, creating confidence | |
in the “robust accuracy” of the models among the researchers. | |
Projections for , published by the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub in | |
June, paint a similar picture to last season. | |
Recommending updated Covid-19 vaccines for only high-risk people will | |
help avoid an estimated 90,000 hospitalizations and 7,000 deaths, but | |
broadening the recommendation to include all people in the US would | |
save an additional 1,000 lives and prevent an additional 26,000 | |
hospitalizations. | |
“We expect continued substantial burden of disease from COVID-19 in | |
the US,” the researchers wrote in an executive summary of the | |
findings. “All vaccination strategies are projected to significantly | |
reduce disease burden. The greatest benefits will be seen if vaccines | |
are offered to all ages.” | |
All work by the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub is public and | |
“available for consideration” by ACIP and other experts, said Dr. | |
Justin Lessler, a leader with the modeling hub and professor of | |
epidemiology at the University of North Carolina. | |
The modeling work was not presented at ACIP’s June meeting, and | |
there’s “no indication” that it will presented at this week’s | |
meeting, he said. | |
“We continue to share our results with the CDC and are working to | |
make them more easily available to a broader range of organizations who | |
are providing vaccine guidance,” Lessler said. | |
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