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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial
ARTICLE VIEW:
Recommending Covid-19 vaccines for everyone in the US could save
thousands more lives than limiting to high-risk groups
By Deidre McPhillips, CNN
Updated:
6:40 PM EDT, Fri September 19, 2025
Source: CNN
As a group of advisers to the US Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention met this week to discuss on who should get the updated
Covid-19 shot this season, a newly published analysis from dozens of
researchers emphasizes the “substantial” benefits of broad vaccine
recommendations.
The US Food and Drug Administration has already made significant
changes to this season’s shots: to adults 65 and older, as well as
younger people who are at higher risk of severe Covid-19. The CDC’s
Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, voted Friday to
recommend that people who want a Covid-19 vaccine must first consult
with a health care provider, although they voted against a
recommendation that a prescription be required.
But scientific projection models from nine teams of researchers,
summarized in a in the journal JAMA Network Open, show that sticking to
a universal Covid-19 vaccine recommendation – as has been in place in
the US in recent years – has the potential to save thousands more
lives than limiting the recommendation to high-risk groups.
“While focusing on vaccination among individuals at the highest risk
for severe outcomes, including those aged 65 and older and those with
comorbidities, remains an effective ongoing strategy, our scenario
projections demonstrate that maintaining the recommendation for all
individuals to receive reformulated vaccines has the potential to save
thousands more lives through both direct and indirect effects,” the
researchers wrote.
Over the past five years, the has provided nearly 20 rounds of
projections estimating Covid-19 disease burden. Various teams build
their models with a unique set of assumptions, which are then combined
into ensemble projections for six scenarios based on different vaccine
recommendations and viral immune escape — vulnerability to things
like a new variant or waning immunity from prior infection or
vaccination. The group’s work was used to guide the expansion of the
in 2021 and in fall 2022.
Models for last season – covering the period from April 2024 to April
2025 – included a worst-case scenario in which there was no vaccine
recommendation and high immune escape, and a best-case scenario in
which there was a universal vaccine recommendation and low immune
escape.
The scenario that the researchers say was most similar to the way last
season actually played out involved high immune escape. The universal
vaccine recommendation that was in place in this scenario was projected
to reduce hospitalizations by 11% and deaths by 13% – essentially
averting 104,000 hospitalizations and 9,000 deaths.
If vaccine recommendations had been limited to high-risk people, the
benefit of the vaccine would still be substantial: an 8% reduction in
hospitalizations and 10% reduction in deaths. But the expanded
recommendations for all ages were projected to prevent an additional
28,000 hospitalizations and 2,000 deaths, the study showed.
Adults 65 and older benefit the most under all vaccine scenarios, both
directly and indirectly. A universal vaccine recommendation would
reduce the burden of Covid-19 on seniors by an additional 3% to 4%,
averting about 11,000 hospitalizations and 1,000 deaths in this group.
“This finding suggests substantial indirect benefits of universal
vaccination and the continued value of broad vaccine
recommendations,” the researchers wrote.
The projections for last season were first published by the Scenario
Modeling Hub in June 2024, to help inform decision-making ahead of last
year’s ACIP meeting. Actual epidemiological trends differed from
assumptions that were made in the models at that time – burden was
greater than expected during the summer and less in the winter – but
projected deaths aligned closely with the models, creating confidence
in the “robust accuracy” of the models among the researchers.
Projections for , published by the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub in
June, paint a similar picture to last season.
Recommending updated Covid-19 vaccines for only high-risk people will
help avoid an estimated 90,000 hospitalizations and 7,000 deaths, but
broadening the recommendation to include all people in the US would
save an additional 1,000 lives and prevent an additional 26,000
hospitalizations.
“We expect continued substantial burden of disease from COVID-19 in
the US,” the researchers wrote in an executive summary of the
findings. “All vaccination strategies are projected to significantly
reduce disease burden. The greatest benefits will be seen if vaccines
are offered to all ages.”
All work by the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub is public and
“available for consideration” by ACIP and other experts, said Dr.
Justin Lessler, a leader with the modeling hub and professor of
epidemiology at the University of North Carolina.
The modeling work was not presented at ACIP’s June meeting, and
there’s “no indication” that it will presented at this week’s
meeting, he said.
“We continue to share our results with the CDC and are working to
make them more easily available to a broader range of organizations who
are providing vaccine guidance,” Lessler said.
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