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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial | |
ARTICLE VIEW: | |
The Fed just cut rates. But relief might not come quickly enough for | |
some Americans | |
By Alicia Wallace, CNN | |
Updated: | |
12:27 PM EDT, Thu September 18, 2025 | |
Source: CNN | |
The Federal Reserve for the first time this year, a move that could | |
provide some relief for Americans from the higher cost of living. But | |
there is a deepening inequality among households in the United States. | |
Consumer spending, which is a crucial part of the US economy, | |
accounting for about two-thirds of its growth remains robust: , a month | |
when spending was expected to be somewhat lackluster. | |
But a closer look reveals that the economy is now ,” with a small | |
share of high-wealth Americans seeing continued gains, while a larger | |
share of middle- and lower-income households is experiencing increased | |
strain. | |
“The economy’s prospects are tethered to the fortunes and spending | |
of the well-to-do,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s | |
Analytics, told CNN. “Those in the top 20% of the income | |
distribution are driving the economic train.” | |
And that gap is widening to a historic extent, Moody’s Analytics data | |
shows. As of June 30, the top 20% of earners (those who make about | |
$264,500 a year) accounted for more than 63% of all spending, and the | |
top 10% (those who earn more than $353,000 a year) accounted for more | |
than 49% — both the highest on record, according to data that goes | |
back to 1989. In 2019, during the comparable period, those shares were | |
59.2% and 44.6%, respectively. | |
“If [the top-earners] turn more cautious in their spending, for | |
whatever reason, the economy will suffer a recession,” Zandi said. | |
That could happen if there were a significant correction in stock | |
prices, he said, since much of the wealth that fuels spending by those | |
“well-to-do” individuals is tied to the robust financial markets. | |
Hoping for the best | |
The wealthiest households accounting for an even greater share of US | |
spending growth is causing upward pressure on inflation and spurring | |
speculative bets that could foment . That could make the United States | |
more vulnerable to a potential recession in the process, but it also | |
risks setting back some Americans for years to come, economists tell | |
CNN. | |
“The business cycle is always super depressing when we think about | |
the different parts of the income distribution, because the lowest | |
decile … in every single recession, they fall further and further | |
behind,” said Tyler Schipper, an associate professor of economics and | |
data analytics at the University of St. Thomas, in St. Paul, Minnesota. | |
The widening spending inequality is happening at a time when the US | |
economy is slowing, inflation is heating up and the . | |
For some people, like Minnesota resident Calyssa Hall, money is tight, | |
and especially so since the pandemic. | |
“It’s been hard to bounce back totally,” Hall told CNN. “But we | |
are believing that all the good things are coming. I truly believe that | |
I’m going to get back to the point of abundance and non-panic — not | |
spending like crazy but just being able to go and not worry about | |
money.” | |
The rising cost of living was top of mind as Hall and her friend | |
visited the Minnesota State Fair in August. A venture that used to | |
include purchases of artisan-made goods and a selection of different | |
tastes and eats has been whittled down to a couple of food items. | |
To be fair, most state fair items have become much pricier over the | |
past year. According to a price index (the fittingly named On-The-Stick | |
Index) developed by economist Schipper and his University of St. Thomas | |
students, fair prices rose by 7.7% from the year before — more than | |
double overall inflation. | |
When tracking prices at the Minnesota State Fair this year, Schipper | |
noticed that attendance was below average despite incredibly favorable | |
weather. He attributed that to the fact that “consumer sentiment is | |
lower, and the State Fair tends to be a place where you’re maybe not | |
as cost-conscious.” One way to avoid paying higher prices is that | |
some “just don’t go to the fair at all,” he said. | |
Spending power being sapped away | |
President Donald Trump’s widespread and steep tariffs on US imports , | |
business investment and hiring, said Justin Begley, an economist at | |
Moody’s Analytics. | |
Still, on an aggregate basis, US households appear to be managing their | |
debt and delinquencies haven’t escalated to concerning levels, | |
Moody’s Analytics’ US Household Debt report for August showed. | |
However, for lower- and middle-income households, that credit picture | |
is looking less stable, according to a Moody’s Analytics analysis of | |
delinquencies by credit score (which is the closest proxy for income). | |
While overall delinquency rates are hovering around their pre-pandemic | |
levels, the percentage of balances 30 days or more past due for | |
households with sub-660 credit scores rose to 9.06% in July, the | |
highest share since February 2016. In August, that delinquency rate | |
dipped down to 8.77%. | |
Additionally, at the fastest pace since the Great Recession, according | |
to new data released this week by credit scoring company FICO. | |
Overall wage growth is slowing, and the pandemic era trends where pay | |
gains were faster for lower-income workers have reversed themselves and | |
are now faster for higher earners. | |
And new analysis released Thursday morning by Oxfam suggests that the | |
highest-earning Americans — the 0.1% — are expected to heavily | |
benefit (to the tune of $60.3 billion) from the recently passed US tax | |
law. Oxfam estimates that the corporate tax provisions in the bill | |
could boost the top 1% of earners by $2 trillion. | |
At the same time, price stressors have been particularly acute for low- | |
and middle-income households, Schipper said. | |
“Economists have long said that tariffs are regressive; they function | |
as a consumption tax, and consumption taxes are more stressful for | |
households that are spending more of their budgets on goods and | |
services,” he said. “We’re also seeing middle-income households | |
actually shopping at places like dollar stores and Walmart.” | |
In Fishers, Indiana, Scott Goodwin’s family recently started buying | |
groceries at a different store. | |
“We’ve changed grocery stores from the more, I hate to say, one of | |
the more nice grocery stores to shop at locally; we used to go there | |
for five to 10 years,” he told CNN. “And now, we went to another | |
chain. My wife thought we can save more money by going to another | |
store, so we’re doing that.” | |
The Goodwins have long taken a conservative approach to spending — | |
they typically don’t take trips, and instead they use the money to | |
take care of bills, including student loan payments. | |
“The economy is always changing, it’s changing now. Do I have as | |
much spending power today as I did five years ago? Probably not,” he | |
said. “We’re conscious of that. My wife and I pull back when we | |
need to.” | |
But recently, they’ve pulled back more on what they spend on food and | |
leisure, including cutting out concerts this year. | |
“Is that because I’m sick, or is that because of the economy? It | |
could be a combination of both,” said Goodwin, who was born with | |
polycystic kidney disease, a rare genetic disease that has now | |
progressed to Stage 5, or kidney failure. | |
More medical costs are on the horizon for Goodwin, as he’ll start | |
dialysis soon and desperately hopes for a transplant. | |
“There’s a lot looming for me, medical bills being one of them,” | |
he said. | |
A quarter-point drop in the bucket | |
, in part because of tariff-related effects but also higher services | |
prices, particularly for travel-related sectors. | |
“Affluent households are still willing to pay for the front of the | |
bus, and they’re also willing to pay up, while a lot of households | |
are curbing their discretionary spending,” Diane Swonk, chief | |
economist at KPMG, told CNN. “You have this pocket of affluent | |
consumers holding up service sector inflation in a way that you | |
wouldn’t normally have.” | |
Plus, the widening gap is making overall spending weaker, she said. | |
“Inequality is also important, because lower- and middle-income | |
households, any dollar they earn or that’s put in their pocket, | |
they’re more likely to spend than a high-income household,” she | |
said. “When you have higher inequality, overall consumer spending is | |
weaker as well. And so, it’s not just a bifurcation, it actually | |
dampens overall spending and inequality.” | |
She added: “It’s like the worst of all worlds, in some ways, for | |
the [Federal Reserve].” | |
On Wednesday, the , lowering its benchmark interest rate by a quarter | |
point. Monetary policy acts with a lag, and the size of the cut isn’t | |
expected to be a salve for the K-shaped economy-related ills. However, | |
it could bring some relief to certain households, Schipper said. | |
“I think a household that’s struggling with credit card debt and is | |
actively trying to get rid of it — every little bit helps,” he | |
said. “There will be some households, potentially, that it might make | |
sense within the next six months to refinance their mortgages, and that | |
can be a big help.” | |
But it’s likely not generating huge sighs of relief that the worst is | |
over, he said. | |
“It’s just a little bit less of a struggle,” he said. | |
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