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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial | |
ARTICLE VIEW: | |
4 races to watch in 2025 | |
By Terence Burlij, CNN | |
Updated: | |
5:30 AM EDT, Mon September 1, 2025 | |
Source: CNN | |
Elections this November will serve as a measure of the mood of voters | |
10 months into President Donald Trump’s second term as both parties | |
prepare for next year’s crucial midterm contests. | |
The electoral tests of come as both parties face challenges: Democrats | |
find themselves balancing and disapproval of the president’s actions | |
while Republicans will try to turn out Trump voters, who are more | |
motivated to show up when the president is on the ballot. | |
And while the presidential election is still more than three years | |
away, the has already begun, making these off-year races opportunities | |
for White House hopefuls to elevate their profiles in support of | |
candidates and initiatives on the ballot. | |
While there are unique dynamics at play in each of these contests, the | |
results – taken together – will offer the first wide-ranging | |
assessment from voters in advance of more consequential elections that | |
follow in 2026 and 2028. | |
California redistricting | |
California is a late addition to this list, with lawmakers last month | |
approving a plan by Gov. Gavin Newsom to put new congressional maps | |
before voters aimed at gaining five additional US House seats for | |
Democrats in next year’s midterm elections. The move came in response | |
to an effort by Republicans to redraw the maps in Texas to help the GOP | |
pick up five more seats, part of an escalating redistricting fight | |
across the country. | |
It’s a political gamble by Newsom, with sequoia-sized implications | |
for both the balance of power in the US House for the remaining two | |
years of Trump’s presidency and for the California governor’s own | |
presidential ambitions. The compressed campaign comes 15 years after | |
Californians voted to strip lawmakers of their redistricting powers, | |
shifting that authority to an independent commission. | |
Proponents of the new maps will need to persuade voters to temporarily | |
jettison that process while also overcoming a splintered coalition of | |
opponents that includes former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former | |
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who has pledged to raise funds to defeat | |
the effort. Those on both sides of the overhaul , a sign of the high | |
stakes attached to the outcome. | |
Trump is at the core of Newsom’s appeal to voters to support the | |
amendment, known as Proposition 50, framing it as a chance for the | |
state to serve as rebuttal to the president’s push in Texas and a | |
rebuke by denying him a GOP-controlled House for the final two years of | |
his term. Republicans are wary of Trump’s potential role in the | |
campaign, given the president’s low approval numbers in the deep-blue | |
state. Instead, they are seeking to make Newsom the central figure of | |
the contest, presenting the effort as being fueled by the governor’s | |
future ambitions beyond the Golden State. | |
New York City mayor | |
Zohran Mamdani’s stunning Democratic primary win reshaped the mayoral | |
race in America’s largest city. The 33-year-old state assembly member | |
must now translate that success in a general election environment with | |
rivals offering themselves up as alternatives to the democratic | |
socialist and his progressive agenda. | |
Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo remains Mamdani’s top rival, deciding to | |
proceed with an independent bid after losing the June primary by 12 | |
points. Cuomo following that defeat but has kept a steady focus on | |
Mamdani’s lack of experience and liberal policy proposals. | |
Incumbent mayor Eric Adams is also running as an independent after | |
passing on a Democratic primary run with the Trump administration. His | |
candidacy has also been surrounded by a cloud of corruption scandals | |
involving close allies and associates. Republican Curtis Sliwa, who | |
placed a distant second to Adams four years ago, is a potential | |
wildcard based on what share of the vote he draws. | |
While he enters the final two months of the election as the | |
frontrunner, Mamdani is still working to coalesce support among | |
Democrats – top party leaders including Gov. Kathy Hochul, Senate | |
Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries | |
have yet to formally endorse him. At the same time, Mamdani has sought | |
to soften some of his more controversial stances and rhetoric as he | |
seeks to build support outside the party’s more progressive base. | |
Given the sharp Democratic lean of New York City, the results in | |
November may be of limited utility when it comes to understanding the | |
direction of the country heading into the midterms. The outcome, | |
however, could offer a clear signal about the direction of the | |
Democratic Party, with the possible election of Mamdani giving | |
democratic socialists perhaps their most significant victory to date. | |
Virginia governor | |
Regardless of the outcome in November, Virginia is set to make history | |
by electing the commonwealth’s first female governor. | |
The race features a matchup between former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the | |
Democratic nominee, and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. | |
Spanberger has proven over the years to be a difficult candidate for | |
Republicans to run against given her profile as a political moderate | |
and national security background as a former CIA officer. Earle-Sears | |
offers a compelling biography of her own – a Jamaican immigrant, | |
Marine Corps veteran and first woman of color elected statewide in | |
Virginia. | |
Spanberger has made affordability – not Trump – a cornerstone of | |
her candidacy, though she has made a point to highlight the impact of | |
the administration’s DOGE cuts on Virginia’s economy given the | |
large number of federal workers who reside in the state. Earle-Sears | |
has leaned more into her ties to outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin rather | |
than the president, while targeting her criticism of Spanberger around | |
transgender policies – an echo of the Trump campaign’s messaging in | |
the closing stretch of the 2024 election. | |
Money is a major advantage for Spanberger, who has significantly | |
outraised her rival and reserved $10 million in ad time for the fall | |
campaign compared to about $33,000 for Earle-Sears, according to data | |
from AdImpact. | |
While Virginia has become more favorable for Democrats in recent | |
decades, Youngkin’s success in 2021 and Trump’s narrower margin of | |
defeat last November compared to his 2020 run has given Republicans | |
some renewed hope of the state’s level of competitiveness. | |
Historical trends, however, are not on the side of Republicans this | |
year. Except for Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s 2013 win, Virginia voters | |
have picked governors from the party that lost the White House the | |
previous year going back 12 elections. | |
One other dynamic to keep an eye on: The margin in this year’s race | |
for governor could impact other contests across the commonwealth, with | |
two other statewide races for lieutenant governor and attorney general | |
as well as all 100 seats in the House of Delegates on the ballot. Some | |
Republicans see Jason Miyares, the incumbent attorney general, as the | |
party’s strongest statewide candidate who has the potential to | |
outperform the top of the ticket. | |
New Jersey governor | |
A few hundred miles up I-95 is another race for governor in a state | |
where Trump made inroads last November but with a track record of | |
boosting the party not in control of the White House. | |
The contest for New Jersey governor pits Democratic Rep. Mikie | |
Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot first elected as part of the | |
2018 wave in Trump’s first term, against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, | |
the party’s 2021 nominee and former member of the state assembly. | |
New Jersey saw a dramatic swing toward Trump in 2024, with the | |
president only losing the state by roughly six points after a nearly | |
16-point defeat four years earlier. In his 2021 run for governor, | |
Ciattarelli came within about three points of unseating incumbent | |
Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who is term limited. | |
The political environment with Trump back in the White House is | |
different terrain for Ciattarelli than his previous election that came | |
10 months into Joe Biden’s term when approval of the Democrat’s job | |
performance had declined. The GOP nominee has fully embraced Trump in | |
his latest campaign after keeping him more at a distance four years | |
ago. | |
Sherrill, like Spanberger in Virginia, gives Democrats a nominee with a | |
more moderate profile and national security credentials, who like her | |
former House colleague has also sought to highlight cost-of-living | |
concerns in her campaign. She has zeroed in on Ciattarelli’s support | |
for Trump’s tariff and tax policies, making the case they hurt the | |
bottom lines of New Jersey voters. | |
Ciattarelli has blamed Democratic policies for rising utility costs and | |
vowed to defend parental rights while also attempting to link Sherrill | |
to Mamdani despite her cautious approach when it comes to the New York | |
mayoral nominee. | |
Neither candidate currently has any fall ad reservations, according to | |
AdImpact, but a pro-Sherrill outside group is set to spend more than | |
$17 million between Labor Day and Election Day. | |
New Jersey, like Virginia, has a well-established with gubernatorial | |
contests. Since 1989 – except for Murphy’s reelection four years | |
ago – the candidate from the party that lost the previous | |
presidential election has gone on to win the race for governor in the | |
Garden State. At the same time, no party has held the governor’s | |
office in New Jersey for more than two consecutive terms in the last 50 | |
years, which would make a Sherrill win this November historic. | |
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