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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial
ARTICLE VIEW:
4 races to watch in 2025
By Terence Burlij, CNN
Updated:
5:30 AM EDT, Mon September 1, 2025
Source: CNN
Elections this November will serve as a measure of the mood of voters
10 months into President Donald Trump’s second term as both parties
prepare for next year’s crucial midterm contests.
The electoral tests of come as both parties face challenges: Democrats
find themselves balancing and disapproval of the president’s actions
while Republicans will try to turn out Trump voters, who are more
motivated to show up when the president is on the ballot.
And while the presidential election is still more than three years
away, the has already begun, making these off-year races opportunities
for White House hopefuls to elevate their profiles in support of
candidates and initiatives on the ballot.
While there are unique dynamics at play in each of these contests, the
results – taken together – will offer the first wide-ranging
assessment from voters in advance of more consequential elections that
follow in 2026 and 2028.
California redistricting
California is a late addition to this list, with lawmakers last month
approving a plan by Gov. Gavin Newsom to put new congressional maps
before voters aimed at gaining five additional US House seats for
Democrats in next year’s midterm elections. The move came in response
to an effort by Republicans to redraw the maps in Texas to help the GOP
pick up five more seats, part of an escalating redistricting fight
across the country.
It’s a political gamble by Newsom, with sequoia-sized implications
for both the balance of power in the US House for the remaining two
years of Trump’s presidency and for the California governor’s own
presidential ambitions. The compressed campaign comes 15 years after
Californians voted to strip lawmakers of their redistricting powers,
shifting that authority to an independent commission.
Proponents of the new maps will need to persuade voters to temporarily
jettison that process while also overcoming a splintered coalition of
opponents that includes former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who has pledged to raise funds to defeat
the effort. Those on both sides of the overhaul , a sign of the high
stakes attached to the outcome.
Trump is at the core of Newsom’s appeal to voters to support the
amendment, known as Proposition 50, framing it as a chance for the
state to serve as rebuttal to the president’s push in Texas and a
rebuke by denying him a GOP-controlled House for the final two years of
his term. Republicans are wary of Trump’s potential role in the
campaign, given the president’s low approval numbers in the deep-blue
state. Instead, they are seeking to make Newsom the central figure of
the contest, presenting the effort as being fueled by the governor’s
future ambitions beyond the Golden State.
New York City mayor
Zohran Mamdani’s stunning Democratic primary win reshaped the mayoral
race in America’s largest city. The 33-year-old state assembly member
must now translate that success in a general election environment with
rivals offering themselves up as alternatives to the democratic
socialist and his progressive agenda.
Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo remains Mamdani’s top rival, deciding to
proceed with an independent bid after losing the June primary by 12
points. Cuomo following that defeat but has kept a steady focus on
Mamdani’s lack of experience and liberal policy proposals.
Incumbent mayor Eric Adams is also running as an independent after
passing on a Democratic primary run with the Trump administration. His
candidacy has also been surrounded by a cloud of corruption scandals
involving close allies and associates. Republican Curtis Sliwa, who
placed a distant second to Adams four years ago, is a potential
wildcard based on what share of the vote he draws.
While he enters the final two months of the election as the
frontrunner, Mamdani is still working to coalesce support among
Democrats – top party leaders including Gov. Kathy Hochul, Senate
Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries
have yet to formally endorse him. At the same time, Mamdani has sought
to soften some of his more controversial stances and rhetoric as he
seeks to build support outside the party’s more progressive base.
Given the sharp Democratic lean of New York City, the results in
November may be of limited utility when it comes to understanding the
direction of the country heading into the midterms. The outcome,
however, could offer a clear signal about the direction of the
Democratic Party, with the possible election of Mamdani giving
democratic socialists perhaps their most significant victory to date.
Virginia governor
Regardless of the outcome in November, Virginia is set to make history
by electing the commonwealth’s first female governor.
The race features a matchup between former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the
Democratic nominee, and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
Spanberger has proven over the years to be a difficult candidate for
Republicans to run against given her profile as a political moderate
and national security background as a former CIA officer. Earle-Sears
offers a compelling biography of her own – a Jamaican immigrant,
Marine Corps veteran and first woman of color elected statewide in
Virginia.
Spanberger has made affordability – not Trump – a cornerstone of
her candidacy, though she has made a point to highlight the impact of
the administration’s DOGE cuts on Virginia’s economy given the
large number of federal workers who reside in the state. Earle-Sears
has leaned more into her ties to outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin rather
than the president, while targeting her criticism of Spanberger around
transgender policies – an echo of the Trump campaign’s messaging in
the closing stretch of the 2024 election.
Money is a major advantage for Spanberger, who has significantly
outraised her rival and reserved $10 million in ad time for the fall
campaign compared to about $33,000 for Earle-Sears, according to data
from AdImpact.
While Virginia has become more favorable for Democrats in recent
decades, Youngkin’s success in 2021 and Trump’s narrower margin of
defeat last November compared to his 2020 run has given Republicans
some renewed hope of the state’s level of competitiveness.
Historical trends, however, are not on the side of Republicans this
year. Except for Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s 2013 win, Virginia voters
have picked governors from the party that lost the White House the
previous year going back 12 elections.
One other dynamic to keep an eye on: The margin in this year’s race
for governor could impact other contests across the commonwealth, with
two other statewide races for lieutenant governor and attorney general
as well as all 100 seats in the House of Delegates on the ballot. Some
Republicans see Jason Miyares, the incumbent attorney general, as the
party’s strongest statewide candidate who has the potential to
outperform the top of the ticket.
New Jersey governor
A few hundred miles up I-95 is another race for governor in a state
where Trump made inroads last November but with a track record of
boosting the party not in control of the White House.
The contest for New Jersey governor pits Democratic Rep. Mikie
Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot first elected as part of the
2018 wave in Trump’s first term, against Republican Jack Ciattarelli,
the party’s 2021 nominee and former member of the state assembly.
New Jersey saw a dramatic swing toward Trump in 2024, with the
president only losing the state by roughly six points after a nearly
16-point defeat four years earlier. In his 2021 run for governor,
Ciattarelli came within about three points of unseating incumbent
Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who is term limited.
The political environment with Trump back in the White House is
different terrain for Ciattarelli than his previous election that came
10 months into Joe Biden’s term when approval of the Democrat’s job
performance had declined. The GOP nominee has fully embraced Trump in
his latest campaign after keeping him more at a distance four years
ago.
Sherrill, like Spanberger in Virginia, gives Democrats a nominee with a
more moderate profile and national security credentials, who like her
former House colleague has also sought to highlight cost-of-living
concerns in her campaign. She has zeroed in on Ciattarelli’s support
for Trump’s tariff and tax policies, making the case they hurt the
bottom lines of New Jersey voters.
Ciattarelli has blamed Democratic policies for rising utility costs and
vowed to defend parental rights while also attempting to link Sherrill
to Mamdani despite her cautious approach when it comes to the New York
mayoral nominee.
Neither candidate currently has any fall ad reservations, according to
AdImpact, but a pro-Sherrill outside group is set to spend more than
$17 million between Labor Day and Election Day.
New Jersey, like Virginia, has a well-established with gubernatorial
contests. Since 1989 – except for Murphy’s reelection four years
ago – the candidate from the party that lost the previous
presidential election has gone on to win the race for governor in the
Garden State. At the same time, no party has held the governor’s
office in New Jersey for more than two consecutive terms in the last 50
years, which would make a Sherrill win this November historic.
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