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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial | |
ARTICLE VIEW: | |
Americans kept spending last month despite elevated inflation | |
By Alicia Wallace, CNN | |
Updated: | |
12:58 PM EDT, Fri August 29, 2025 | |
Source: CNN | |
US consumers kept spending in July, even as inflation remained elevated | |
that month, new data showed Friday. | |
Consumer spending rose 0.5% from June, according to Commerce | |
Department data released Friday. That’s slightly below expectations | |
for a 0.6% bump but represented a slight pickup from the , according | |
to FactSet consensus estimates. | |
July is typically a month filled with summer sales events, notably | |
Amazon’s Prime Day, as well as a key month for back-to-school | |
spending. However, spending on cars and financial services (bolstered | |
by the strong stock market performance) drove the lion’s share of | |
last month’s spending gains, Friday’s report showed. | |
When factoring in inflation, spending rose 0.3% last month, an | |
acceleration from a tepid 0.1% gain in June. | |
“Consumer spending is solid, and goods inflation remains moderate for | |
now as the tariff war has yet to slow the economy appreciably or lead | |
to a worrisome outbreak of inflation that could worry markets,” Chris | |
Rupkey, FwdBonds chief economist, wrote Friday in a note to investors. | |
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the inflation | |
gauge the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% target rate — rose 0.2% | |
on a monthly basis, which kept the annual rate at 2.6%. | |
The core PCE price index, which excludes the volatile food and energy | |
categories and is considered a better indicator of underlying inflation | |
trends, rose 0.3% from June (matching the pace seen the prior month) | |
and saw its annual rate accelerate to 2.9% from 2.8%. | |
Stocks were lower Friday morning but pared some losses after the data | |
release. Dow futures were down 100 points, or 0.21%. S&P 500 futures | |
fell 0.23% and Nasdaq 100 futures slid 0.44%. | |
The July inflation data was right in line with what economists had | |
expected. | |
Wage gains helped keep Americans spending | |
Solid income growth helped to provide fuel for resilient US consumers, | |
whose spending powers more than two-thirds of America’s economic | |
activity. | |
Personal income rose by 0.4% last month (marking an acceleration from | |
0.3% in June), a reflection of higher wage gains, the report showed. | |
The savings rate held steady at 4.4% last month. | |
While both spending and income rebounded last month, July also marked | |
the first month since March when monthly spending exceeded income, | |
noted Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. | |
“This is an encouraging sign that American consumers are still | |
willing to open their wallets when they see deals,” she wrote. | |
And, in July, the appetite for spending was largely directed in the | |
area of durable goods — products like appliances, cars and the like | |
are that are meant to last for several years. | |
Auto-related purchases played a key role in the durable goods rebound; | |
however, real (inflation-adjusted) spending also picked up modestly in | |
categories such as furnishings and other home equipment as well as | |
recreational goods and vehicles. | |
July marked the biggest monthly increase in durable goods since | |
Americans’ pre-tariff spending spree in March, noted Wells Fargo | |
economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein on Friday. | |
“Spending on these big-ticket items was flattish in April before | |
posting back-to-back declines in May and June, raising concerns about | |
the tariff impact on durable goods spending,” they wrote in a note | |
posted Friday. “Those worries may fade a bit after today’s report | |
showed durable goods spending rebounded in July rising 1.9% in the | |
month.” | |
However, they also noted that Friday’s report included a continuation | |
of another trend showing how tariffs are starting to weigh on | |
consumers: They’re pulling back on discretionary spending. | |
Recreational services spending posted the smallest monthly gain of any | |
services category, and spending at hotels and restaurants fell last | |
month, they noted. | |
Entering a ‘stagflation-lite’ period | |
The inflation trajectory outlined in Friday’s Personal Income and | |
Outlays report mirrors that of what was seen in the closely watched | |
Consumer Price Index as well as the Producer Price Index. | |
Prices are rising more than they typically should (and more than | |
desired by the Fed), and to the end consumer. | |
“The real hit (from tariffs) is in the next six months,” Navy | |
Federal Credit Union economist Long told CNN in an interview Friday. | |
“The reason it’s been so slow is the middle class doesn’t have | |
extra room in their budgets to absorb higher costs.” | |
This is a different environment than 2022, when households were quite a | |
bit more flush from the extra savings they built up during the pandemic | |
and the stimulus payments received during that time, she said. | |
“A lot of brands and retailers and restaurants were shocked that they | |
could keep raising prices, and people were not pushing back,” Long | |
said. “Now, consumers are pushing back, and that’s a big part of | |
the story of why, even at this point as the inventories run down, | |
we’re seeing a more muted pass-through of the tariffs.” | |
The tariff-driven price increases were expected to be a slow boil: US | |
businesses loaded up their warehouses prior to the tariffs going into | |
effect; many of the announced tariffs were delayed, reduced or | |
contained many product exemptions; companies along the supply chain are | |
letting their profit margins eat some of the costs; and other tariffs | |
are still going into effect. | |
Tariffs weren’t expected to drastically reaccelerate overall | |
inflation — but the pace of price hikes remaining elevated for the | |
coming year could present some challenges of their own for the economy, | |
Long said. | |
“The United States is entering a stagflation-lite period,” she | |
said, noting an economic environment with high inflation, . | |
The concern moving forward, Long said, is that the higher costs will | |
lead to cost-cutting efforts by businesses. | |
“I do agree that the Federal Reserve needs to cut in September and | |
needs to cut again in December, because while there’s not an | |
inflation crisis brewing, there is a lot of potential for a layoff | |
crisis to start,” she said. | |
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