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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial
ARTICLE VIEW:
It could be a La Niña winter. Here’s what your region might see
By CNN Meteorologist Mary Gilbert, CNN
Updated:
11:33 AM EDT, Wed August 27, 2025
Source: CNN
As a gives much of the United States a break from a hot, , some
forecasters are already skipping ahead to winter, and a possible
homecoming for an important atmospheric player: .
La Niña has about coin-flip odds of emerging this fall, with a 53%
chance from September through November, according to the latest
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . It has a slightly
better chance – 58% – of emerging by the end of the year. The odds
are good enough to have triggered a La Niña watch from NOAA.
Once it arrives, it’s likely to stick around for much of the winter
and make its mark on the country’s temperature and precipitation
patterns before it diminishes in early spring.
As a refresher: La Niña is a natural climate pattern marked by cooler
than average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific that also
leads to changes in upper atmosphere patterns — together, these
influence weather globally.
Forecasters closely monitor La Niña and its counterpart El Niño
because they influence weather in a way that’s largely consistent and
predictable well in advance, especially when the patterns are strong.
They exert the most influence during winter in the Northern Hemisphere,
but that sway fades during other seasons, allowing other atmospheric
influences to seep in.
The upcoming La Nina looks to be on the weaker end of the spectrum,
which could also affect how clear-cut its influence becomes. Here’s
what that means for weather in the months ahead.
What to expect when you’re expecting La Niña
La Niña conditions should build gradually throughout the fall and NOAA
could declare La Niña’s official arrival either at the tail-end of
the season or around the start of winter.
This La Niña should show up on time for winter and hang out for much
of the season, unlike last winter, when La Niña conditions were and
didn’t stick around for cake.
Knowing La Niña is coming provides a forecasting blueprint for what
winter could look like in terms of temperature and precipitation
trends, but La Niña doesn’t always stick to the plan — especially
when it’s expected to be weak, meaning other phenomena could join the
mix.
La Niña’s biggest influence is always on the jet stream – a river
of air that storms flow through. The jet stream often shifts north
during a La Niña winter, which pulls stormy weather out of the South
and into more of the northern US.
The Climate Prediction Center’s for meteorological winter –
December through February – definitely has La Niña’s fingerprints:
A drier than normal winter is likely in many of the southernmost states
with a couple pockets of the northern US expecting more precipitation
than normal.
Snow lovers can’t celebrate just yet — more precipitation than
normal doesn’t guarantee it will come as snow. Temperatures still
have to be chilly enough both above and at the surface for snow to fall
and stick, and that might not be the case this year.
La Niña winters typically favor warmer than normal conditions in the
South with cooler conditions for some northwest and north-central
states.
True to form, the South is expected to be warmer than normal this
winter, but so too are the Southwest, parts of the Rockies and nearly
the entire Eastern Seaboard. That just shows that La Niña isn’t the
only factor in play for the CPC’s forecasts.
Weak La Niña events tend to allow for in the Northeast, but that
above-average temperature forecast could impede dreams of a winter
wonderland. A small slice of the Pacific Northwest is the only portion
of the Lower 48 expected to be cooler than normal this winter. For the
rest of the country, it’s a toss-up whether winter will end up
warmer, cooler or close to normal.
Last winter wasn’t a record-warm one, , but it was still much warmer
than normal. It ended up warmer than 80% of all winter seasons since
the late 1800s.
The idea of a typical winter is distorting as the world warms due to
fossil fuel pollution: Winter has become the for nearly 75% of the US.
around the globe as the climate changes.
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