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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial | |
ARTICLE VIEW: | |
It could be a La Niña winter. Here’s what your region might see | |
By CNN Meteorologist Mary Gilbert, CNN | |
Updated: | |
11:33 AM EDT, Wed August 27, 2025 | |
Source: CNN | |
As a gives much of the United States a break from a hot, , some | |
forecasters are already skipping ahead to winter, and a possible | |
homecoming for an important atmospheric player: . | |
La Niña has about coin-flip odds of emerging this fall, with a 53% | |
chance from September through November, according to the latest | |
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . It has a slightly | |
better chance – 58% – of emerging by the end of the year. The odds | |
are good enough to have triggered a La Niña watch from NOAA. | |
Once it arrives, it’s likely to stick around for much of the winter | |
and make its mark on the country’s temperature and precipitation | |
patterns before it diminishes in early spring. | |
As a refresher: La Niña is a natural climate pattern marked by cooler | |
than average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific that also | |
leads to changes in upper atmosphere patterns — together, these | |
influence weather globally. | |
Forecasters closely monitor La Niña and its counterpart El Niño | |
because they influence weather in a way that’s largely consistent and | |
predictable well in advance, especially when the patterns are strong. | |
They exert the most influence during winter in the Northern Hemisphere, | |
but that sway fades during other seasons, allowing other atmospheric | |
influences to seep in. | |
The upcoming La Nina looks to be on the weaker end of the spectrum, | |
which could also affect how clear-cut its influence becomes. Here’s | |
what that means for weather in the months ahead. | |
What to expect when you’re expecting La Niña | |
La Niña conditions should build gradually throughout the fall and NOAA | |
could declare La Niña’s official arrival either at the tail-end of | |
the season or around the start of winter. | |
This La Niña should show up on time for winter and hang out for much | |
of the season, unlike last winter, when La Niña conditions were and | |
didn’t stick around for cake. | |
Knowing La Niña is coming provides a forecasting blueprint for what | |
winter could look like in terms of temperature and precipitation | |
trends, but La Niña doesn’t always stick to the plan — especially | |
when it’s expected to be weak, meaning other phenomena could join the | |
mix. | |
La Niña’s biggest influence is always on the jet stream – a river | |
of air that storms flow through. The jet stream often shifts north | |
during a La Niña winter, which pulls stormy weather out of the South | |
and into more of the northern US. | |
The Climate Prediction Center’s for meteorological winter – | |
December through February – definitely has La Niña’s fingerprints: | |
A drier than normal winter is likely in many of the southernmost states | |
with a couple pockets of the northern US expecting more precipitation | |
than normal. | |
Snow lovers can’t celebrate just yet — more precipitation than | |
normal doesn’t guarantee it will come as snow. Temperatures still | |
have to be chilly enough both above and at the surface for snow to fall | |
and stick, and that might not be the case this year. | |
La Niña winters typically favor warmer than normal conditions in the | |
South with cooler conditions for some northwest and north-central | |
states. | |
True to form, the South is expected to be warmer than normal this | |
winter, but so too are the Southwest, parts of the Rockies and nearly | |
the entire Eastern Seaboard. That just shows that La Niña isn’t the | |
only factor in play for the CPC’s forecasts. | |
Weak La Niña events tend to allow for in the Northeast, but that | |
above-average temperature forecast could impede dreams of a winter | |
wonderland. A small slice of the Pacific Northwest is the only portion | |
of the Lower 48 expected to be cooler than normal this winter. For the | |
rest of the country, it’s a toss-up whether winter will end up | |
warmer, cooler or close to normal. | |
Last winter wasn’t a record-warm one, , but it was still much warmer | |
than normal. It ended up warmer than 80% of all winter seasons since | |
the late 1800s. | |
The idea of a typical winter is distorting as the world warms due to | |
fossil fuel pollution: Winter has become the for nearly 75% of the US. | |
around the globe as the climate changes. | |
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