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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial | |
ARTICLE VIEW: | |
Trump is crowing about his tariffs reducing the debt by $4 trillion. | |
But there are some caveats | |
By Tami Luhby, CNN | |
Updated: | |
5:00 AM EDT, Tue August 26, 2025 | |
Source: CNN | |
President Donald Trump is making sure to share – repeatedly – a | |
recent government analysis that shows his sweeping array of tariffs is | |
expected to reduce the federal debt by $4 trillion over the next | |
decade, more than forecast only a few months ago. | |
The president has referenced the in multiple remarks and on since it | |
was released on Friday, saying it shows the success of one of his key, | |
but controversial, policy platforms. | |
“The tariffs came in at $4 trillion,” Trump said at an Oval Office | |
event on Monday afternoon, the second time he mentioned the report that | |
day. “The CBO, they just announced it. I told them that was going to | |
happen, but they refused to give us credit for it. Now they’re giving | |
us credit because the money is flowing in.” | |
However, how much revenue the US actually realizes depends on several | |
important factors, including whether the current levies remain in place | |
into 2035 and how the nation reacts to the higher tariffs. The tariffs | |
are expected to and potentially weaken the economy, which could in turn | |
reduce federal revenue. (The CBO’s analysis did not take the economic | |
impact into account.) | |
Already, the president has announced some recent changes not | |
incorporated into the analysis, including the coming suspension of for | |
products under $800. On the flip side, a is considering whether Trump | |
overstepped his legal authority to impose many of the tariffs, which | |
may lead to at least some of them being undone. | |
Also, the president hasn’t mentioned that the , his domestic policy | |
agenda that he signed into law last month, is expected to increase the | |
federal debt by an estimated $4.1 trillion or so between 2025 and 2034, | |
more than his tariffs are forecast to bring in. | |
Imposing sweeping tariffs | |
Since taking office in January, Trump has slapped tariffs on a wide | |
range of goods and countries, including increasing tariffs on most | |
Chinese goods by 30%, on automobiles and car parts by up to 25%, and | |
on most imports of steel and aluminum by 50%, among other examples. | |
The levies are expected to for computers and other electronics, | |
clothing, toys, furniture and more, even as the president insists that | |
foreign governments will pick up the tab. | |
The beefed-up tariffs are projected to lower the federal deficit by | |
$3.3 trillion over the 2025 to 2035 period, plus reduce interest costs | |
by an additional roughly $700 billion, for a total impact of $4 | |
trillion, according to the CBO’s latest estimate. It looked at | |
tariffs imposed as of August 19. | |
The CBO had estimated in early June that the tariffs implemented | |
through May 13 would reduce the federal debt by a total of roughly $3 | |
trillion. | |
However, Trump has also modified the rates on countries and sectors | |
numerous times. | |
For instance, Trump slapped a minimum 20% tariff on most Chinese goods | |
in April. But within days, he increased rates to 145% in response to | |
China imposing higher tariffs on American goods. In May, following | |
bilateral trade negotiations, both countries agreed to lower rates on | |
one another’s goods, with the US charging a minimum of 30%. Rates | |
are set to stay at the previously agreed upon levels through November. | |
However, Trump said Monday that he’s prepared to hike tariffs on | |
Chinese goods as high as 200% if it doesn’t ship more rare-earth | |
minerals to the US. | |
The president also recently said he would consider distributing at | |
least some of the tariff revenue to Americans in the form of , though | |
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on CNBC last week that the money | |
would go to . | |
Tariffs and other customs duties have generated nearly $156 billion in | |
revenue so far this year, through August 22, according to Treasury | |
Department data. | |
The revenue is more than most people expected, said Marc Goldwein, | |
senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal | |
Budget, a watchdog group. And it could be difficult to pull back, | |
though it would depend on the economic consequences. | |
“If we see a significant increase in inflation and a recession or | |
something, it’s more likely that these get reversed, either wholesale | |
or piece-wise through trade deals,” he said, noting that a prior CBO | |
estimate that took economic impact into account showed tariffs would | |
likely decrease revenue somewhat. “Whereas, if you just see a | |
one-time, small price shift and some mild economic weakness, we may | |
learn to live with these.” | |
CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald contributed to this report. | |
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