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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial | |
ARTICLE VIEW: | |
Software shares are in the doldrums. Blame AI | |
By John Towfighi, CNN | |
Updated: | |
5:00 AM EDT, Mon August 25, 2025 | |
Source: CNN | |
Tech companies are giving the world artificial intelligence — but | |
ironically, the tech sector itself is among those now feeling the most | |
pain from AI. | |
The rise of AI tools that can write and develop code is clouding the | |
outlook for the software industry, investors say, sending shares in | |
those companies into a slump. | |
Software as a service, or “SaaS,” is a bread-and-butter business | |
model that is now at risk of disruption because of AI, investors say, a | |
microcosm of how AI could upend the way many businesses operate. | |
Shares in software giant Salesforce () are down 26% this year, making | |
it the second-worst performing stock in the Dow. | |
Meanwhile, Adobe () shares are down 19% this year. Shares in Atlassian | |
(), which owns applications like Trello, are down 30% over the same | |
time. | |
In comparison, the benchmark S&P 500 is up 10% this year, while the | |
tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up 11%. | |
“Software valuations remain under pressure from the ‘death of | |
software due to AI’ narrative, which likely drives continued | |
volatility in the short term,” Matthew Hedberg, a software research | |
analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said in an August 12 note. | |
Hard times for software companies | |
The market is reckoning with a paradigm shift in software and tech, | |
according to Ted Mortonson, a technology strategist at Baird. | |
Software businesses that have been darlings of tech in past years are | |
at risk of falling out of fashion with investors while AI models | |
continue to develop and get better at writing code. | |
The traditional SaaS business model includes renting software to | |
customers. But the rise of or an AI tool that can operate without | |
supervision, is opening the door for companies to cut back on that | |
rental model, Mortonson said. | |
Agentic models can write and develop code, encapsulated by the term | |
“vibe coding.” If that can help companies develop their own | |
software, it could threaten established software firms’ seat count or | |
number of subscriptions. | |
“The volatility on this technology pivot to agentic is nothing I have | |
seen in my career, and it’s happening so quickly,” Mortonson said. | |
“Your seat count is under pressure, which is the kiss of death for | |
SaaS.” | |
Companies might have anticipated this shift — but likely didn’t see | |
it happening so fast, analysts say. | |
“Software right now is under massive pressure because AI is eating | |
their lunch,” Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush | |
Securities, said. “Adobe and Salesforce, among others, miscalculated | |
how quick the AI revolution was going to eat into their market | |
share.” | |
Salesforce did not respond to a request for comment. Adobe and | |
Atlassian declined to comment. | |
Is AI eating software? | |
Marc Andreessen, the venture capitalist and technology investor, | |
famously wrote in 2011 that “.” | |
Jensen Huang, chief executive at Nvidia, said in 2017 that “software | |
is eating the world, but .” | |
Ben Reitzes, head of tech research at investment firm Melius Research, | |
said in a note that he thinks Huang’s view is proving true. | |
“The world is coming around to the reality of the theme that ‘AI is | |
eating software,’” Reitzes said. | |
“AI is making it clear that almost anyone from an able-bodied | |
startup, to a big cloud (like Google) can create an application so | |
great — that it can compete quickly and potently (like the cloud | |
competed quickly with Dell),” he said in an August 10 note. | |
One of AI’s biggest cheerleaders, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, earlier this | |
month on social media: “entering the fast fashion era of SaaS very | |
soon.” | |
Software companies also face competition from the big tech giants. | |
Companies like Microsoft () and Oracle () are expanding their AI | |
capabilities. | |
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on his company’s earnings call in | |
July that a shift is taking place: “AI is driving a fundamental | |
change in the biz apps market as customers shift from legacy systems to | |
agentic business applications.” | |
“AI, in many respects, has disrupted this traditional software | |
subscriber-based model,” said Angelo Zino, a tech analyst at CFRA | |
Research. | |
However, Zino said it’s less certain whether AI is going to replace | |
software. | |
“There’s definitely concerns out there,” Zino said. “The best | |
way to put it is that the jury is still out in many respects.” | |
There are some doubts on the value of AI and whether it will provide a | |
meaningful shift away from legacy companies like Adobe that have built | |
long-time subscriber bases. | |
“There’s a threat to the model, but there are also still | |
opportunities for these companies to prosper and adapt in this changing | |
environment,” Zino said. Salesforce, for example, has its own AI | |
agent tool called “agentforce.” | |
In a slump | |
Wall Street is uncertain whether AI will truly be able to replace SaaS. | |
But shares in software companies have slid this year as investors have | |
tried to mitigate losses in their portfolios. | |
“For now, they’re missing the train,” Ives said. “I believe | |
software is going to rebound, and they’ll find their way out of this | |
to monetize and participate in the AI party.” | |
Brent Thill, an equity analyst at Jefferies, said in a note that he | |
thinks software AI fears are overblown. | |
“AI is a transformational wave, not a destructive hurricane for | |
software,” he said. | |
Thill, who said he recently met with partners at Salesforce, said they | |
are seeing some headwinds due to AI but believes they will ultimately | |
rebound. | |
“Partners agreed that fears are overblown on AI replacing software, | |
with many highlighting the shortcomings of vibe coding,” he said. | |
AI’s impact on the market can shift rapidly, Ross Mayfield, an | |
investment strategist at Baird, said. It was just seven months ago when | |
caused a reckoning in Silicon Valley. But it did not last. | |
“The macro can change, the AI picture can change,” Mayfield said. | |
“There’s a lot that can move quickly.” | |
“If you think you know what the AI landscape is going to look like 12 | |
months from now, there’s a lot of assumptions that should probably be | |
challenged because of how quickly this is moving,” Mayfield said. | |
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