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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial
ARTICLE VIEW:
Trump-Putin summit in Alaska resembles a slow defeat for Ukraine
Analysis by Nick Paton Walsh
Updated:
2:20 PM EDT, Sat August 9, 2025
Location matters, former real estate mogul US President Donald Trump
said. Moments later he announced , a place sold by Russia to the United
States 158 years ago for $7.2 million, would be where Russian President
Vladimir Putin tries to sell his land deal of the century, getting Kyiv
to hand over chunks of land he’s not yet been able to occupy.
The conditions around Friday’s so wildly favor Moscow, it is obvious
why Putin leapt at the chance, after months of fake negotiation, and it
is hard to see how a deal emerges from the bilateral that does not
eviscerate Ukraine. Kyiv and its European allies have reacted with
understandable horror at the early ideas of Trump’s envoy, Steve
Witkoff, that Ukraine cede the remainders of the Donetsk and Luhansk
regions in exchange for a ceasefire.
Naturally, the Kremlin head has promoted the idea of taking ground
without a fight, and found a willing recipient in the form of Witkoff,
who has in the past exhibited a relaxed grasp of Ukrainian sovereignty
and the complexity of asking a country, in the fourth year of its
invasion, to simply walk out of towns it’s lost thousands of men
defending.
It is worth pausing and reflecting on what ’s proposal would look
like. Russia is close to encircling two key Donetsk towns, Pokrovsk and
Kostiantynivka, and may effectively put Ukrainian troops defending
these two hubs under siege in the coming weeks. Ceding these two towns
might be something Kyiv does anyway to conserve manpower in the months
ahead.
The rest of Donetsk – principally the towns of Kramatorsk and
Sloviansk – is a much nastier prospect. Thousands of civilians live
there now, and Moscow would delight at scenes where the towns evacuate,
and Russian troops walk in without a shot fired.
’s rejection of ceding land early Saturday reflects the real dilemma
of a commander in chief trying to manage the anger of his military and
the deep-seated distrust of the Ukrainian people towards their
neighbor, who continues to bombard their cities nightly.
What could Ukraine get back in the “swapping” Trump referred to?
Perhaps the tiny slivers of border areas occupied by Russia in Sumy and
Kharkiv regions – part of Putin’s purported “buffer zone” –
but not much else, realistically.
The main goal is a ceasefire, and that itself is a stretch. Putin has
long held that the immediate ceasefire demanded by the United States,
Europe and Ukraine for months, is impossible as technical work about
monitoring and logistics must take place first. He is unlikely to have
changed his mind now his troops are in the ascendancy across the
eastern frontline.
Europe is also wary of mirroring the failure of former UK Foreign
Secretary Neville Chamberlain to stand up to Nazi Germany in 1938 –
of the worthlessness of a “piece of paper” signed by a Kremlin that
has repeatedly agreed to deals in Ukraine and then simply used the
pause to regroup before invading again.
To his credit, Putin has made it clear what he wants from the start:
all of Ukraine subjugated or occupied and a strategic reset with the US
that involves it dropping Kyiv like a stone. His aide, Yury Ushakov,
spoke of Alaska being a great place to talk economic cooperation
between Washington and Moscow, and suggested a return summit in Russia
had already been proposed.
There is a risk we see bonhomie between Trump and Putin that allows the
US president to tolerate more technical meetings between their staffers
on the what and when of any ceasefire deal. A plan about land swaps or
grabs that is wholly in Moscow’s favor, might then be presented to
Kyiv, with the old US ultimatums about aid and intelligence sharing
being contingent on their accepting the deal that we have seen before.
Cue French President Emmanuel Macron on the phone to Trump again, and
around we go. Putin needs more time to continue to conquer and he is
about to get it.
What has changed since the last time Trump found his thinking dragged
somehow back towards Russia’s orbit, around the time of the Oval
Office blowout with Zelensky? Two elements are there now that were
absent then.
Firstly, we cannot ignore that India and China – the former risking
25% tariffs in two weeks and the latter still waiting to learn what
damage it’ll suffer – were on the phone to the Kremlin in the past
days. They might have provided some impetus for Putin to meet Trump, or
at least provide more lip service to diplomacy again, and may be
concerned at their energy imports being compromised by Trump’s
secondary sanctions.
But Putin cannot have needed much persuading to agree to a formal
invitation to the US to have the bilateral meeting his team have long
held out as the way towards peace in Ukraine. And another sanctions
deadline of Friday has just whizzed past, almost unnoticed in the
kerfuffle about Alaska and land deals.
Secondly, Trump claims his thinking around Putin has evolved.
“Disappointed,” “disgusting,” “tapping me along” are all
newcomers to his lexicon about the Kremlin head. While Trump appears
effortlessly able to stop himself causing genuine pain to Moscow,
allowing threats and deadlines to fall lifeless around him, he is
surrounded by allies and Republicans who will remind him of how far
down these roads he has gone before.
Much could go right. But the stage is set for something more sinister.
Consider Putin’s mindset for a moment. The third Trump threat of
sanctions has evaporated, and his forces are moving into a period of
strategic gain on the frontlines. He’s got his first invitation to
the US in a decade to talk peace about Ukraine without Ukraine,
discussing a deal where he doesn’t even have to fight to get some of
the rest of the land he wants. And this is before the former KGB spy
gets to work his apparent magic on Trump.
Friday is six days away, but even at this distance resembles slow
defeat for Kyiv.
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