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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial | |
ARTICLE VIEW: | |
In a tiny European statelet, a Putin ally is running out of road | |
By Christian Edwards, CNN | |
Updated: | |
10:30 AM EDT, Sat August 9, 2025 | |
Source: CNN | |
When Bosnia’s electoral authorities stripped Milorad Dodik of his | |
post as president of the tiny Serb-majority statelet Republika Srpska, | |
he did his best to appear unfazed. Instead, the divisive, | |
genocide-denying nationalist laid down his own challenge to the | |
institutions trying to topple him. | |
“What if I refuse?” he asked. | |
Bosnia may be about to find out. | |
Dodik, a key Balkan ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has been | |
in and around power in Bosnia since 2006, picking at the seams of the | |
country’s patchwork multiethnic state. That state was birthed in 1995 | |
by the Dayton Peace Accords, which halted the violence that spread | |
across the former Yugoslavia as it crumbled in the 1990s, driven by | |
then-Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic’s frenzied push to create a | |
“Greater Serbia.” | |
Although Dayton halted the Bosnian War, it left the country split along | |
ethnic lines. Bosnia comprises two entities: the Federation, where | |
Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) share power with Croats, and the | |
Serb-dominated Republika Srpska. Above them sits a mostly toothless | |
central government and a foreign “High Representative,” who is | |
bestowed with far-reaching powers to implement the deal and keep the | |
peace. | |
Dodik – who for years has threatened to split from Bosnia and | |
“reunite” with Serbia – was convicted in February of defying the | |
orders of Christian Schmidt, the current High Representative. Last | |
week, an appeals court upheld his one-year prison sentence and six-year | |
ban on holding office. Although Dodik has avoided prison by paying a | |
fine, Bosnia’s electoral commission on Wednesday chose to apply the | |
law which automatically removes an official from office if sentenced to | |
more than six months in jail. | |
After two decades of raging against Bosnia’s state-level | |
institutions, emboldened by his cast of illiberal allies and the lack | |
of pushback from the European Union, many in Bosnia were stunned that | |
authorities moved so quickly to implement the court’s ruling. | |
“Since 2006, Dodik has done his damned best to weaken Bosnia’s | |
institutions and hollow out the state from the inside,” Arminka | |
Helić, who fled the wars in the 1990s and now sits in Britain’s | |
House of Lords, told CNN. “I don’t think he would have expected, | |
after all his threats and all the noise, that anyone would dare | |
question his position.” | |
The question now is whether Dodik goes quietly or puts up a fight, she | |
said. | |
For now, the latter looks more likely. Dodik has threatened to prevent | |
new elections from taking place – if necessary, by force – and has | |
looked to his allies in Belgrade, Moscow and Budapest for support. | |
“Surrender is not an option,” Dodik said. | |
Moscow, which has long looked to Dodik to foment trouble in the | |
Balkans, has warned that the region could spiral “out of control.” | |
Its embassy in Bosnia warned the country was making a “historic | |
mistake.” | |
“Has its reputation as the ‘European powder keg’ been | |
forgotten…?” it asked. | |
Overtures to Trump | |
When Dodik first took power, Western diplomats were delighted. After | |
the bloodbath of the 1990s, he seemed to herald an era of stability. | |
For Madeleine Albright, then-US Secretary of State, Dodik was a | |
“breath of fresh air.” | |
But since then, Dodik has refashioned himself as an unrepentant | |
nationalist, denying the genocide of 8,000 Bosniaks at Srebrenica in | |
1995, the war’s most notorious massacre, and often meeting with Putin | |
in Moscow. | |
For years, Dodik has raged against the structures of the Dayton | |
agreement, making it harder for Bosnian institutions to operate in his | |
entity and threatening, ultimately, to split Srpska from the rest of | |
the country. | |
He has made a nemesis of Christian Schmidt, the current High | |
Representative and a former government minister in Germany under | |
then-Chancellor Angela Merkel. Dodik casts Schmidt as an albatross | |
around Srpska’s neck, claiming his powers trample on the will of Serb | |
voters. | |
Since Dodik’s conviction, his European allies have begun to take up | |
his cause. Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, dismissed the | |
case against Dodik as an attempt by the foreign-installed High | |
Representative “to remove him for opposing their globalist elite | |
agenda.” | |
Marko Djurić, Serbia’s foreign minister, also said Schmidt was | |
subjecting Dodik to “a political witch hunt,” using “undemocratic | |
methods” to thwart “the will of the people.” | |
Focusing his complaints against Schmidt is a “smart strategy,” | |
Adnan Ćerimagić, a senior analyst at the European Stability | |
Initiative, told CNN. | |
Even defenders of Bosnia’s institutions find it hard to justify the | |
powers granted to Schmidt. High Representatives are appointed by a | |
council comprising several Western nations and bestowed with the power | |
to impose annul laws as well as appoint and remove officials. Paddy | |
Ashdown, a former British MP who previously served as High | |
Representative, said the role gave him “powers that ought to make any | |
liberal blush.” | |
“No other person in Europe today, at least in the democratic part, | |
has that power: simply to wake up, access his website, and post new | |
laws, decisions and dismiss people,” said Ćerimagić. | |
Seeking more heavyweight diplomatic support, Dodik has begun to ramp up | |
his overtures to the Trump administration, claiming that he, like the | |
US president, has been subjected to “lawfare” by an unelected | |
bureaucrat. | |
Echoing criticisms made by Vice President JD Vance in his infamous | |
Munich speech earlier this year, Dodik has claimed that, in attempting | |
to remove him from office, European authorities are ignoring the will | |
of the people. | |
He has also attempted to paint himself as a victimized Christian leader | |
in a Muslim-majority country. | |
“He wants to paint himself as a kindred soul sitting out there in a | |
little entity in the Balkans, who is not only going through the same | |
trials and tribulations that President Trump went through, but is also | |
standing there as the sole figure defending the rule of law and | |
Christianity from chaos,” Helić said. | |
‘A desperate man’ | |
The electoral authorities’ decision against Dodik will take effect | |
once an appeals period expires. Early elections will then be called | |
within 90 days. | |
But confusion remains over who will enforce the decision if Dodik | |
refuses to stand down, or obstructs the new elections. Although the EU | |
expanded its peacekeeping force in the country in March, those troops | |
did not move to detain Dodik even when a warrant was active for his | |
arrest earlier this year. | |
Jasmin Mujanović, a senior fellow at New Lines Institute, told CNN | |
that Bosnian and European authorities will face a “major test” if | |
Dodik attempts to stay in post. | |
“If you can’t deal with the likes of Milorad Dodik, at least from | |
the EU’s perspective, you really have no business talking about | |
competing with the likes of (Chinese leader) Xi Jinping or Vladimir | |
Putin or whoever else,” he said. | |
Although Dodik has threatened to defy the ruling, Mujanović said much | |
of his support base in the entity has withered away. For months, there | |
has been “elite defection” in Republika Srpska, as the political | |
opposition begins to imagine a “post-Dodik future.” | |
Nebojša Vukanović, founder of an opposition party in the entity, said | |
only Dodik’s total removal from office could end the “constant | |
crisis” in Bosnian politics, and would finally “free the | |
institutions to prosecute those responsible for crime and | |
corruption.” Dodik is under US sanctions for cultivating a “corrupt | |
patronage network.” | |
But although some in Srpska may be beginning to imagine political life | |
without Dodik, Helić warned he could take reckless actions – such as | |
attempting full secession from Bosnia – if he feels he has nothing to | |
lose. | |
“A desperate man might decide to do something that would further | |
destabilize the country,” she said. | |
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