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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial
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3 min read
The hidden bad news in the June jobs report
Analysis by Lucy Bayly, CNN
Updated:
1:10 PM EDT, Thu July 3, 2025
Source: CNN
On the face of it, presents a robust picture of the US economy, with a
historically low unemployment rate, a healthy number of jobs added and
wage growth that outpaces inflation. But a closer look at the data
reveals blemishes that could mar that rosy outlook — with President
Donald Trump’s economic policies as the most significant common
denominator.
The monthly headline number of 147,000 soundly beat out expectations of
117,500 net job gains, with a healthy upswing in traditionally steady
industries like local and state government, education, leisure and
hospitality and health care.
And the unemployment rate also looks encouraging, falling to 4.1%
against expectations of a rise to 4.3% for the first time since
October 2021, when the country was still in the throes of pandemic
upheaval.
Even the dreaded offer promise — April and May were both revised
upward, while in previous reports, prior months have tended to see
(sometimes hefty) downward revisions. For example, March’s
stronger-than-expected 228,000-job gain was ultimately revised down by
108,000 jobs.
But, beyond the top-level data, things get a little murkier in the June
report:
It is becoming harder for Americans to find work: The average duration
of unemployment rose from 21.8 weeks to 23 weeks, and the share of
unemployed workers who have been out of a job for 27 weeks or longer
rose to 23.3%, edging closer to a three-year high. — and the
dizzying back and forth on implementing them and pausing them — has
caused many businesses major decision-making or spending, including
hiring.
Manufacturing employment was down: The sector saw a decline for the
second-straight month, losing 7,000 jobs — a cloudy development for
one of .
Job growth was not widespread: Sectors that saw the biggest monthly
gains were mostly ones that are less affected by tariffs.
Employees worked fewer hours: The average workweek edged down by
one-tenth of an hour, to 34.2 hours, in June. This potentially signals
a weakening in the demand for labor, economist Dean Baker of the Center
for Economic Policy Research noted.
The unemployment rate for Black Americans rose: The jobless rate for
Black workers increased in the June report, rising from 6% to 6.8%,
its highest rate since January 2022. That’s typically an indicator of
economic weakness, but it’s also a volatile number from month to
month.
More women are leaving the workforce: The data indicates that job gains
could be going mostly to men: Since January, a net 338,000 women have
left the labor force, while 183,000 men have joined the labor force,
the National Women’s Law Center noted on Thursday.
Wage growth gains have slowed: While the pace of wage growth increased
last month, it was at a slower rate than economists expected. Average
hourly earnings rose by just 0.2% in June, bringing the annual growth
rate to 3.7% from 3.9%.
There’s some to understand: The unemployment rate went down and the
size of the labor force also went down — mostly because the US lost
more than 1 million foreign-born workers in the last quarter. That
rebalancing essentially allows the jobless rate to stay unchanged or
even drop, despite an increase in the number of people out of work.
About those workers: Trump’s policies include a large-scale
immigration crackdown and , depriving companies of what has been a key
sector of the labor force in recent years.
For now, the US job market continues to defy expectations. But with
Trump’s self-imposed for key US trading partners to reach a deal on
tariffs, and his still being debated in Congress, businesses and their
workers remain frozen in a state of uncertainty.
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