Subj : Public Information Statem
To : ALL USERS
From : DARYL STOUT
Date : Mon Nov 16 2015 02:25 pm
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015
...THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER...
NOVEMBER 16TH THROUGH 20TH IS WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK
IN ARKANSAS. PEOPLE ARE ASKED TO TAKE SOME TIME TO PREPARE
FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON.
TODAYS TOPIC IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER.
OVERALL...WINTER AROUND HERE HAS NOT EXACTLY BEEN COLD IN THE
LAST THIRTY YEARS. SINCE THE WINTER OF 1987-88...WINTER
TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW NORMAL ONLY SIX TIMES IN LITTLE ROCK.
HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN COLD RECENTLY. MERCURY READINGS IN FOUR
OF THE LAST SIX WINTERS WERE SUBPAR.
THE LAST TWO /2013-2014 AND 2014-2015/ CLIMATOLOGICAL WINTERS
/DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY/ WERE COLDER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE STATE.
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS COLD AND DRY TREND CONTINUING.
SINCE 1895...ARKANSAS HAS EXPERIENCED THREE COLD WINTERS IN A ROW
ONLY TWICE...AND THREE CONSECUTIVE DRY WINTERS ONLY THREE TIMES.
IN THIS CASE...COLD IS DEFINED AS AT LEAST 1.5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND DRY IS AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A STRONG EL NINO...WHICH FEATURES
ABOVE NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. FIVE OF THE LAST SEVEN EL NINO WINTERS WERE NORMAL TO MILD
IN ARKANSAS...AND ALL EL NINOS WERE NORMAL /WITHIN AN INCH/ TO
WET.
SIGNS ARE POINTING TO A MILD AND WET PATTERN AHEAD...BUT HOLD
ON. DURING A TEXTBOOK EL NINO...MILDER THAN NORMAL WINTERS ARE
USUALLY FOUND UP NORTH...AND IT IS COLDER THAN USUAL IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES. IT IS DRY IN THE NORTH AND WET IN THE SOUTH.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WHICH PUTS OUT THE OFFICIAL
WINTER FORECAST EACH YEAR...IS GOING WITH THE TEXTBOOK
SOLUTION. SO...IN ARKANSAS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
A NORMAL TO WET SEASON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MINUS
CATEGORY.
WHATEVER HAPPENS...WE ALL KNOW THAT THE WEATHER CAN BE ALL
OVER THE PLACE IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD. IT CAN FEEL LIKE
SPRING IN JANUARY...AND IT CAN GET REALLY COLD. THAT IS AN
ORDINARY WINTER IN ARKANSAS. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
DIFFERENT THIS TIME AROUND.
IF THERE IS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN AVERAGE...WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THREE THINGS. IF WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A WARM
PERIOD...BE WARY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE NOT
UNUSUAL. IF THERE IS A LOT OF RAIN...THEN FLOODING CAN
BECOME A PROBLEM. FINALLY...GIVEN A WELL TIMED SHOT OF
SUBFREEZING AIR...THAT IS A RECIPE FOR A BIG SNOW OR ICE STORM.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS WINTERTIME NORMALS FOR ARKANSAS.
CITY NORMAL HIGH NORMAL LOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
BENTONVILLE 48.0 25.3 8.67
EUREKA SPRINGS 47.9 28.1 8.96
FAYETTEVILLE 47.7 26.1 8.85
HARRISON 48.3 28.3 8.40
MOUNTAIN HOME 47.9 27.5 10.30
JONESBORO 48.2 28.1 12.03
FORT SMITH 52.3 31.1 8.86
BATESVILLE 51.0 26.9 11.48
NEWPORT 47.8 31.0 12.44
RUSSELLVILLE 52.9 30.6 11.59
SEARCY 51.1 29.2 12.28
CONWAY 51.5 29.5 12.18
MENA 51.5 29.6 12.84
HOT SPRINGS 52.4 33.3 13.30
LITTLE ROCK 52.6 33.1 12.18
NORTH LITTLE ROCK 51.7 34.7 12.09
PINE BLUFF 53.4 33.9 14.10
CAMDEN 56.5 32.2 14.12
MAGNOLIA 56.2 33.3 14.07
MONTICELLO 55.4 35.6 15.30
WARREN 54.8 33.4 15.84
TEXARKANA 56.0 35.8 12.44
EL DORADO 56.6 34.8 14.27
--- BgNet 1.0a12 - The Thunderbolt BBS wx1der.dyndns.org Little Rock, AR
