Subj : The K7RA Solar Update
To   : QST
From : ARRL de WD1CKS
Date : Fri Dec 29 2023 10:06 pm

12/29/2023

The recent reporting week, December 21-27, saw counter-intuitive solar numbers,
with solar flux rising but sunspot numbers in decline. This happens from time
to time.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 137.4 to 114.4. Only three new
sunspot groups emerged, two on December 22, and one on December 27. On
Thursday, December 28 one more sunspot emerged and the sunspot number increased
from 78 to 83.

Average daily solar flux rose from 162.7 to 172.6.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 145 on December 29-30, 140 on
December 31 to January 1, 2024, 135 on January 2-4, 150 on January 5-7, 155 on
January 8-11, then 150, 155, 160, 170 and 175 on January 12-16, 180 on January
17-21, then 170, 165, 162, 155 and 145 on January 22-26, then 140 on January
27-30, and 150 on January 31 to February 3.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, 8, 16, and 8 on December 29 through
January 2, 2024, then 5 on January 3-7, then 10, 10 and 8 on� January 8-10,
then 5 on January 11-25, then 12, 10, 10 and 8 on January 26-29, and 5 on
January 30 through February 3.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere,
December 28, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

"There are active regions on the Sun that may not even be large, but whose
magnetic configuration points to the possibility of solar flares, up to
moderately important ones. CMEs are no exception, but they may not hit the
Earth at all.

"On December 24, three moderate-importance flares were observed. At least one
of them produced a CME. Based on measurements of its velocity, the collision
with Earth was predicted to December 27. However, nothing happened, and despite
the extension of the prediction of the onset of the disturbance by a day, calm
continued on 28 December.

"For many days now there has been such a large active region on the Sun's far
side that it is affecting the vibration of the entire Sun. In addition, it has
been observed by NASA's Mars Perseverance rover camera. While it is primarily
designed to see if there is dust in the air, it can see large sunspots and,
most importantly, the sun's far side is now visible from Mars.

"So we await the return of AR 3514, which will rise in the northeastern solar
disk shortly after the New Year. It will be a significant contributor to the
further rise in solar activity in the days ahead. Furthermore, longer term
forecasts are calling for high solar activity in the second half of January. So
perhaps we will finally see an improvement in shortwave conditions."

Don't forget ARRL Straight Key Night is this weekend, for all of New Years Day
(UTC), so that starts at 4:00 PM Sunday here on the Left Coast where I live.
Operate CW in a casual event using your straight key or semi-automatic bug.

Recent activity: https://bit.ly/3vhqLIE[1]

Sun as revolving field motor: https://bit.ly/41CbEFA[2]

Aurora: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8qwdc5[3]

2023 solar activity:

http://tinyurl.com/55x96tfd[4] ��https://bit.ly/3RYngj1[5]

Cosmic spectacle: https://bit.ly/41C8kdR[6]

Larger storms: https://bit.ly/3RDl4fB[7]

Tamitha Skov's latest report: https://youtu.be/-xt-qMPQWwE[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
[email protected][9] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which
mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] �and the ARRL Technical Information Service
web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an explanation
of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] �

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good information
and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14]

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
http://arrl.org/bulletins[16]

Sunspot numbers for December 21 through 27, 2023 were 138, 157, 123, 113, 98,
94, and 78, with a mean of 114.4. 10.7 cm flux was 193.6, 186.7, 174.2, 183.4,
166.7, 154.2, and 149.4, with a mean of 172.6. Estimated planetary A indices
were 5, 4, 7, 9, 4, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.4. Middle latitude A index was
3, 3, 5, 7, 2, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.


[1] https://bit.ly/3vhqLIE
[2] https://bit.ly/41CbEFA
[3] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8qwdc5
[4] http://tinyurl.com/55x96tfd
[5] https://bit.ly/3RYngj1
[6] https://bit.ly/41C8kdR
[7] https://bit.ly/3RDl4fB
[8] https://youtu.be/-xt-qMPQWwE
[9] mailto:[email protected]
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

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