Subj : The K7RA Solar Update
To   : QST
From : ARRL de WD1CKS
Date : Fri Sep 01 2023 11:12 pm

09/01/2023

First, this alert from Australia.

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0706UTC/31 AUGUST 2023 BY THE
AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

A filament eruption and associated coronal mass ejection (CME) were observed on
UT day 30-Aug. This CME is expected to impact Earth from 1800 UT +/- 12 hours
on 02-Sep, with impacts possibly rolling into UT day 03-Sep. G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over this time, with a chance for periods of G3."

Solar activity was down again this week, with average daily sunspot numbers
dropping from 105.9 to 78.7, and average daily solar flux from 149.4 to 140.9.

Only three sunspot groups appeared, one each on August 25, 28 and 30.

But I have noticed a gradual transition from summer toward fall conditions,
with 10 and 12 meter openings more frequent. The autumnal equinox is only three
weeks from now.

Geomagnetic indicators were a little lower. Average planetary A index went from
8.4 to 7, and average middle latitude numbers from 10.1 to 8.9.

What is the outlook?

Predicted solar flux shows a peak around 168 on September 18-21.

Forecast values are 140 on September 1, then 150, 150 and 145 on September 2-4,
150 on September 5-9, 147 on September 10-11, then 145, 150, 155, 150, 155 and
160 on September 12-17, 168 on September 18-21, then 165, 160, and 148 on
September 22-24, 150 on September 25-26, then 152, 150, 145,and 140 on
September 27-30, then 145 on October 1, 150 on October 2-3, 152 on October 4,
156 on October 5-6, 150 on October 7. and 148 on October 8-9.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 12 and 35 on September 1-3, then 15, 10 and
8 on September 4-6, 5 on September 7-13, then 12, 10, 10 and 8 on September
14-17, 5 on September 18-22, then 10, 10 and 8 on September 23-25, 5 on
September 26 to October 2, then 10, 8 and 8 on October 3-5, and 5 on October
6-10.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for
September 1-7, 2023 from OK1HH.

"On 27 August, we predicted a rise in geomagnetic activity, triggered by the
arrival of particles from the filament solar flares three days earlier. It did
occur, but to a lesser extent than we expected. No significant solar flare (at
least of M-class) was observed until 25 August, which is somewhat surprising
for the current phase of Cycle 25 development.

We did not see a major flare until August 26 at 2250 UTC, and it was an
M1-class solar flare, hidden behind the Sun's eastern edge, but it was a long
duration eruption (LDE). It was accompanied by a CME, which of course was not
heading toward Earth, but in this case Mars (which it should hit on September
1).

The coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on August 29 at about 1748 UTC
near the coordinates N05W35. Another major solar flare, C3, was observed on
August 30 with a maximum at 2334 UTC at AR 3413.

Prior to that, a filament of solar plasma disappeared near S18W24 at 2015 UTC.

Still, we expect only a slight increase in Earth's magnetic field activity in
the next few days.

Ionospheric propagation has varied erratically, with partial credit due to the
sporadic E layer that occurred irregularly in Earth's northern hemisphere late
this summer."

India's solar mission:� https://bit.ly/3PiPJ1N[1]

Flares:� https://bit.ly/47X6gzC[2]

Four hours of Tamitha Skov and extreme space weather events:

https://youtu.be/_Li9wxmmbQs[3]

This weekend is the phone portion of the All Asia DX Contest:

https://bit.ly/43GPrXq[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
[email protected][5] .� When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which
mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service
at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an explanation of numbers
used in this bulletin, see: �

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[9]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and
tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] �.

Sunspot numbers for August 24 through 30, 2023 were 86, 77, 75, 69, 68, 82, and
94, with a mean of 78.7.� 10.7 cm flux was 144.1, 138.9, 139.3, 141.5, 141.7,
142.2, and 138.6, with a mean of 140.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 9,
5, 7, 11, 6, 5, and 6, with a mean of 7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 7, 9,
13, 8, 7, and 9, with a mean of 8.9.


[1] https://bit.ly/3PiPJ1N
[2] https://bit.ly/47X6gzC
[3] https://youtu.be/_Li9wxmmbQs
[4] https://bit.ly/43GPrXq
[5] mailto:[email protected]
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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