Subj : Re: Russia's Defeat
To : Arelor
From : Kaelon
Date : Tue Aug 01 2023 03:16 pm
Re: Re: Russia's Defeat
By: Arelor to hollowone on Tue Aug 01 2023 04:49 pm
> Current European conflicts of interests may be dangerous (and even
> threatening at an existential level) but won't cause EU countries to invade
> other EU countries.
This is certainly the hope, but I think we've seen signs that Eastern European countries, but especially Hungary, and even potentially Poland (with its Law and Justice party), are being pushed out of the European mainstream given that their behavior is rightly judged as anti-democratic. Remember that Austria, Romania, and Bulgaria all had similar aliberal moments in recent history, and that this behavior largely has led to the defeat of major EU treaties that would have driven centralization and expansion of the Union.
The next logical step behind a lot of this, in my view, is that as the Eastern Europeans lean more into authoritarianism, there will be a clear incentive to separate from the European Union, and potentially settle differences in a far more confrontational manner. NATO is really the only safeguard against this happening, which is to say that EU member-states must all ultimately become NATO-aligned. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has essentially guaranteed NATO's global supremacy.
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-=: Kaelon :=-
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