Subj : Russia's Defeat
To : Arelor
From : Kaelon
Date : Sun Jul 30 2023 10:09 am
Re: Russia's Defeat
By: Arelor to Kaelon on Sat Jul 29 2023 03:52 pm
> Which is to mean they won't take a significant portion of territory (because
> they lack resources for that) but can render Ukraine into a pseudo-failed
> state, just because they have superior firepower and can produce more cheap
> gear faster. Wars of attrition get lost by the party who runs out of people
> or weapons faster and so far Ukraine is bleeding out population and the NATO
> powers are getting disarmed themselves to supply Ukraine with gear.
I definitely agree that this has been a war sparked in part by Russia's demographic crisis, but this is also the same demographic crisis that Ukraine faces. Both have their origins in the Soviet Union's mass-casualties during the Second World War. Invariably, you are correct, that the party who runs out of people or weapons faster ends up losing the war. I don't see how the West will allow Ukraine - which now serves as its proxy to neuter Russia - to run out of weapons, and the morale in Russia (and mass-defections) have led to a neutering of the Russian population advantage.
> My guess is Ukraine will end up as a Mark between the West and Russia just
> because Ukraine itself won't have resources left to be anybody's ally after
> thedeal is done. We will have Cold War II because Russians won't trust the
> West after the Minsk backstab and the West won't trust the Russians after
> trashing an ally.
Reasonable. Considering Putin's obvious tactical game is to render the Ukrainian state "failed", at least economically, he achieves this by rendering the industry of Ukraine largely inoperable. The Special Forces operation to destroy the dam in Donbas and the likely inevitable "disaster" that will unfold in the nuclear power plant, both, should render Southeast Ukraine generally economically inert. While Ukraine will receive plenty of assistance from the West, the limited options for advancement and a truly independent and prosperous Ukraine following Russian savagery will continue a demographic collapse mostly through emigration to a more prosperous West/United States.
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-=: Kaelon :=-
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