Subj : Re: Russia's Defeat
To : Kaelon
From : hollowone
Date : Fri Jul 28 2023 02:22 am
Ka>
Ka> I have some thoughts:
Ka>
Ka> 1. Crimea will eventually be retaken by Ukraine.
Ka> 2. Russia will be pushed out of the Donbas.
Ka> 3. An insurgency will advance in Belgorod.
Ka> 4. One or more additional coups will be launched against Moscow.
Ka> 5. Inevitable Civil War may befall the Russian Federation.
Ka>
Ka> Inflammatory, I know. What are your thoughts?
Nothing is clear there, I agree that having this conflict extended in time and effectively blocking Russia's initial ambition to conquer Ukraine quickly, set new president and bring it back to puppet state, has failed.
I believe they still believe they can do it, but as the front froze it's more about keeping what they've won and breaking/humiliating Ukrainian nation as much as they can through various actions.
But that in my humble is their doom as:
- I believe this war will continue for the next 2 years toward losing at least significant part of what they have conquered in Donieck and Zaporoznia, maybe the rest of Donbas, I don't believe it will be easy to win back Crimea, but I'd say this is important to Ukraine to try and destroy as much as possible all the strategic advance Russia thinks it has in the Black Sea... that must continue after the war
- With or without losing any land, Ukraine will never surrender until it secures its ambition to be connected with NATO/EU through various direct alliances or intermediate moves that will get it close to be part of these alliances
- Above will bring influx of money to Ukraine in after the war and it must be secured by NATO military presence as conditions that will create an obvious threat in Belarus, which will be surrended by NATO forces and with an example of Ukraine that rebelling against regimes and puppet govs is possible..
- Cold war continues as Russia cannot afford losing Belarus now.. In the long run, all depends on China, as if it wakes up to test NATO/USA in a risk for an open conflic in Pacific area, Russians for sure would like to use it to come back to Ukraine and to destabilize EU.
Chess game continues.
All above assumes that USA won't change mind about the status of NATO and its interest in Europe.
Trump wanted to kill the alliance, which triggered all this madness in
the first place. If Biden stays for the next round, all above may be secured.
If new president will be more like Trump regarding NATO, it may flip the table completely.
-h1
... Xerox Alto was the thing. Anything after we use is just a mere copy.
