Subj : ARRL Propagation Bulletin
To : ALL USERS
From : DARYL STOUT
Date : Fri Dec 18 2015 04:54 pm
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051
ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
ZCZC AP51
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 18, 2015
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP051
ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
Australia's Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic disturbance
warning at 2224 UTC on December 17. It read in part, "Two coronal
mass ejections observed Dec 16 are expected to impact the Earth in
sequence late Dec 18 to early Dec 19. Brief minor to major
geomagnetic storm conditions may result."
For December 18 they predicted quiet to active conditions, and on
December 19 active to minor storm.
Solar activity increased over the past week, compared to the
previous seven days. Average daily sunspot number on December 10-16
was 74.3, up from 48 over the previous seven days, December 3-9.
Average daily solar flux increased from 102.2 to 118.6.
Geomagnetic indices were also higher, with planetary A index going
from 9.9 to 15.6, and mid-latitude A index from 6.6 to 11.3.
The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA forecasters shows predicted
daily solar flux at 120 on December 18, 125 on December 19-21, 120
on December 22-23, then 115, 110, 105 and 98 on December 24-27, 95
on December 28-29, 98 on December 30-31, 100 on January 1-2, 105 on
January 3, 110 on January 4-6, 115 on January 7-9, and then peaking
at 130 on January 11-13 before dropping back below 100 after January
22.
Predicted planetary A index is 16, 42, 18, 10 and 8 on December
18-22, 5 on December 23-26, then 18, 15 and 10 on December 27-29, 5
on December 30-31, then 15, 20, 18 and 10 on January 1-4, 8, 20, 18
and 12 on January 5-8, and 10, 8, 18 and 25 on January 9-12.
Planetary A index then quiets down to 5 on January 16-22.
The OK1HH Geomagnetic Activity Forecast says to watch for quiet to
active conditions December 18, active to disturbed conditions
December 19, quiet to unsettled December 20, quiet December 21-22,
mostly quiet December 23, quiet December 24, quiet to active
December 25-27, active to disturbed December 28, quiet to unsettled
December 29, mostly quiet December 30, quiet to active December 31,
active to disturbed January 1-2, quiet to unsettled January 3,
mostly quiet January 4, quiet to active January 5-6, quiet to
unsettled January 7, mostly quiet January 8, quiet January 9, active
to disturbed January 10, and quiet to unsettled January 11.
OK1HH expects an increase in solar wind on December 16-19, 26-29,
January 2-4 and 7-8. The prediction is less certain on December
16-17, 19, and 28-29.
The Geminid meteor shower has the possibility each year of enhancing
conditions for the ARRL 10 Meter Contest (due to ionized meteor
trails) but this year the peak occurred after the contest, on
December 14. But still, the shower was predicted to last from
December 7-16.
Mark Schreiner, NK8Q of State College, Pennsylvania sent in this
report on the 160 Meter contest from two weeks ago.
"I was also operating in the 160m contest last weekend. While I had
some distractions so wasn't able to put in the full amount of time I
would have liked, I did have a blast running QRP on 160m, especially
on Friday night from 0100Z to 0200Z when I was camped out on 1800.35
kHz calling CQ. I had run rates like I've never seen while running
QRP before (on any band!). The peak was 153 QSOs per hour in a 10
minute window, but that wasn't just a quick flurry of activity and
then it was done, it kept going for about 1-1/2 hours.
"I had a 60 minute run rate of 53 Qs/Hr which is about double my
normal rate. Unfortunately, I was at a birthday party on Saturday
evening so wasn't able to operate during that obviously prime
timeframe, but did get back on around 0400Z and stayed on through
until about an hour after sunrise at 1300Z on Sunday morning when I
shut down.
"I finished with over 400 QSOs and 60 multipliers with 17 hours of
my QRP efforts (and thanks to all who spent time working to pull my
signal out!). I was especially pleased when a station from the
Virgin Islands answered my CQ! Best DX from central PA to the east
was GW, to the south was SFL (South Florida) and C6 (Bahamas), to
the west was AZ and OR and to the north was VY2. I've heard better
conditions but it wasn't too bad."
Mark operated the club station at the Nittany Amateur Radio Club,
with 5 watts and a 160 meter half-wave inverted-Vee antenna.
http://www.nittany-arc.net/station.html
Jeff, N8II reported on December 12:
"I am in the 10 meter contest right now, conditions surprisingly
good especially to the states, but openings shorter than last year
although good to 7 land from 1630Z until local sunset (2200Z). I
will send a report later. On a usual day there is almost no USA
activity in mid-day (making you think the band is not open); wow was
there plenty today!"
(CONTINUED NEXT MESSAGE)
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