I was thinking about the development of the internet in comparison
with other technologies that have acheived mass adoption. It
occours to me that it might be reaching what I'd call the flying
car era. The point is that the period of major functional changes
might be over, because what people are talking about now for the
immediate future is stuff like blockchain technology and virtual
reality, which actually lay unlikely paths to mass-adopted changes
in real internet functionality.
Comparing with cars, you can look back at the models of the 1910s -
lacking in many of the common design features seen today and still
early in the process of taking over from horses and bicycles as a
means of transport. Jump forward a couple of decades and although
improved underlying technology continued to advance the
reliability and affordability of motor vehicles regularly, the
fundamental features common to today's motor cars were becoming
established. From a user's point of view, design changes were no
longer greatly significant to the process of driving and
maintaining the vehicles. Another twenty years and motor vehicles
had taken over completely from horses in most areas, and common
affordable models could be assumed to suit all the average
purchaser's existing expectations. That point in the 1950s was when
future design predictions were awash with new alternative engine
designs, and a facination with taking cars to the air, either like
aircraft or hovering above the ground. But by that point cars
themselves had settled down into a basic form that did the job for
most people, and these radical departures in functionality never
went anywhere.
Instead the technology litterally "under the hood" progressed
solidly in its own gradual way to try to improve on minor features
of the same basic designs that had become established. Similar
things could be said of most technologies that have acheived mass
adoption, such as radio. A modern observer might look at the early
examples without much clear recognition of how they were used, yet
within a few decades of widespread adoption the designs settle down
to something that has a recognisable functionality.
Computers themselves have advanced fairly gradually in this regard,
in spite of huge improvements according to technical metrics,
depending on when one decides that their usage first became
widespread, and the internet is itself just a part of their overall
functional development. But the internet is the functional aspect
that has defined the form of computer development the most over the
last couple of decades, and over that time it has transformed a
great deal.
Here with Gopher I'm effectively living in the internet's vintage
era, where it serves me along with NNTP/Usenet for public
discussions, POP and SMTP for Email, and occasionally I still find
a public FTP site for downloading files. In the modern internet
era, most users have had all those replaced by the web, and the web
itself isn't the simple text-mode-compatible web of the mid 90s,
but today's horrible Javascript mess. I don't like it, but that's
the state that the internet has settled on, and it's how most users
now expect the internet to work at a basic functional level, like
how they understand a car to work.
Given the doubtful plans for the future, I think this is how things
are going to stay. At the technical level change is bound to
continue, with new protocols and formats forcing me to keep moving
along the endless web browser upgrade treadmill. But the general
functionality will stay the same. Javascrpt based websites and web
apps might be the way the internet is going to be for quite a long
time, even if the names, and perhaps even the distinction between
web browsers and the OS, might change.