Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will come bearing gifts when he
meets Donald Trump on Thursday, hoping concessions on tariffs, fresh
business deals and the prospect of cooperation on China will win the US
president’s favor.
Trump, not yet one month into his presidency, has wielded the threat of
tariffs against friend and foe alike to try to extract new trade deals,
investment or law enforcement help.
India may not be an exception: Although Trump had a warm relationship
with Modi in his first term, he has called India a “very big abuser” on
trade and his levies on steel and aluminum hit India particularly hard.
[1]ndian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during day one of the
high-level segment of the UNFCCC COP28 Climate Conference at Expo City
Dubai on December 01, 2023 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during day one of the
high-level segment of the UNFCCC COP28 Climate Conference at Expo City
Dubai on Dec. 1, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Getty Images
Ahead of his White House meeting on Thursday, Modi has readied promises
including increased liquefied natural gas, combat vehicle and jet
engine purchases, according to Indian government officials who declined
to be named.
Indian officials are also looking at trade negotiations, possible deals
on US agriculture exports to India and investment in nuclear energy,
along with tariff cuts in at least a dozen sectors, including
electronics, medical and surgical equipment, and chemicals.
Those are areas Trump’s team believes India needs to make improvements,
according to another person familiar with their thinking.
It’s a “gift” for Trump, said one of the sources, who declined to be
named as they previewed a private meeting.
For his part, Modi wants help with the case of billionaire Gautam
Adani, an ally of his who was indicted by the Justice Department in
November over an alleged bribery scheme. Adani denies wrongdoing.
[2]India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) shakes hands with President
Donald Trump before a meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on Feb.
25, 2020.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) shakes hands with President
Donald Trump before a meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on Feb.
25, 2020. AFP via Getty Images
Another thorny issue will be in the background: the alleged Indian
intelligence plot to assassinate a Sikh activist in the United States
during the administration of Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden.
This time, the tariff issue will be front and center, said Richard
Rossow, head of the India program at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, a Washington think tank.
“It’s going to be a boxing match,” he said. “I think India is willing
to take a few hits, but there’s a limit.”
The US has a $45.6 billion trade deficit with India. Overall, the US
trade-weighted average tariff rate has been about 2.2%, according to
World Trade Organization data, compared with India’s 12%.
[3]President Trump (L) shakes hands with India's Prime Minister
Narendra Modi during a joint press conference at Hyderabad House in New
Delhi on February 25, 2020.
President Trump (L) shakes hands with India’s Prime Minister Narendra
Modi during a joint press conference at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on
Feb. 25, 2020. AFP via Getty Images
Trump’s administration has vowed reciprocal tariffs on every country
that charges duties on US imports, a move that will ratchet up fears of
a widening global trade war.
WHAT TRUMP WANTS
Trump wants more assistance from India on unauthorized immigration. The
country is a major source of immigrants to the United States, including
a large number in the tech industry on work visas and others in the US
illegally.
Modi is expected to meet one-on-one with Elon Musk during his trip to
Washington, two people familiar with the plans told Reuters.
The billionaire is a key Trump ally and his Starlink company’s bid to
enter the South Asian market could come up for discussion.
India may prove critical to Trump’s strategy to thwart China, which
many in his administration see as the top US rival.
India is wary of neighboring China’s military buildup and competes for
many of the same markets.
Modi also worries that Trump could cut a deal with China that excludes
India, according to Mukesh Aghi, president of the US-India Strategic
Partnership Forum lobbying group.
[4]Modi waves as he departs on May 24, 2023 in Sydney, Australia.
Modi waves as he departs on May 24, 2023, in Sydney, Australia. Getty
Images
“Even though much of the talk will be on the bilateral relationship, on
trade, on immigration, defense purchases, the China thread will weave
through the meeting,” said Lisa Curtis, an India-focused former White
House official during the first Trump administration now with the
Center for a New American Security think tank.
Still, India tries to avoid direct confrontation with Beijing and
maintains a foreign policy of “strategic ambiguity” to avoid picking
sides in major international conflicts.
That approach has also meant that India has continued its ties with
Moscow as it carries out its war with Ukraine.
India has remained a major consumer of Russian energy, for instance,
while the West has worked to cut its own consumption since the war
started.
Trump spoke on Wednesday with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy about starting negotiations to end the
war in Ukraine.
The US-India meeting will offer clues as to what, if any, pressure
Trump wants major outside powers to apply to advance those talks.
