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   2. [24]News & Features

NOAA upgrades model to improve storm surge forecasting

  Upgrade will enhance forecasts of storm surge during tropical cyclones
  Focus areas:
  [25]Weather
  Topics:
  [26]storm surge
  [27]flooding
  [28]tropical cyclones
  Share:
  [29]Share to Twitter [30]Share to Facebook [31]Share by email [32]Print
  May 2, 2023
  In this aerial view, parts of Sanibel Causeway are washed away along
  with sections of the bridge after Hurricane Ian passed through the area
  on September 29, 2022 in Sanibel, Florida. The hurricane brought high
  winds, storm surge and rain to the area causing severe damage.

  Damage caused by storm surge along the Sanibel Causeway in Florida
  during Hurricane Ian in September of 2022. (Image credit: Getty images)

  Today, NOAA upgraded its [33]Probabilistic Storm Surge (P-Surge) model
  — the primary model for predicting storm surge associated with
  high-impact weather like hurricanes and tropical storms —  to version
  3.0. This upgrade advances storm surge modeling and forecasting for the
  contiguous U.S. (CONUS), Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and
  comes just in time for the 2023 hurricane season beginning on June 1
  and running through November 30.

  The upgrade includes a number of new capabilities that will help
  forecasters better understand the risk of storm surge, such as:
    * New forecasts for surge, tide and waves for Puerto Rico and the
      U.S. Virgin Islands.
    * The ability to run the model simultaneously for two storms. This
      capability can help during two landfalling storms impacting the
      CONUS, or one storm impacting the CONUS and one impacting Puerto
      Rico and/or the U.S. Virgin Islands.
    * Improved model calculations of friction over different types of
      land surfaces, which helps more accurately compute the extent of
      water inundation along the coast.

  “We are seeing a sharp increase in catastrophic storm surge impacts in
  our coastal communities,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National
  Weather Service. “Our new capabilities to effectively and accurately
  model and forecast storm surge is critical to upholding the NWS mission
  of protection of life and property.”

  [34]Storm surge is the abnormal rise of water generated by a storm,
  over and above the predicted astronomical tide. This rise in water can
  cause extreme flooding in coastal areas.

  Storm surge can devastate coastal communities. The first version of the
  P-Surge model, released in 2008 by NOAA's Meteorological Development
  Laboratory, was galvanized by the significant impacts of storm surge on
  communities along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and southeast
  Virginia following Hurricane Isabel in 2003.

  P-Surge brings a probabilistic approach to the modeling of storm surge
  by generating a range and likelihood of possible storm surge values. It
  is run in advance of hurricanes and tropical storms that may impact the
  Atlantic and Gulf coasts, and now Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
  Islands.

  The model uses official wind forecasts from NOAA's National Hurricane
  Center (NHC) as well as NHC's historic 5-year average errors in track,
  size and intensity of storms to create a collection of roughly 500 to
  1,000 representative wind and pressure inputs. Those inputs are fed
  into NOAA’s Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH)
  model, which computes water levels and inundation due to storm surge
  and tide. P-Surge combines the resulting water level outputs from SLOSH
  with the likelihood of the representative inputs from NHC data to
  create probabilistic products. This approach provides a range of
  possible outcomes based on the percent chance of each, and allows NWS
  forecasters to communicate worst-case scenarios to core partners and
  the general public.


  Media contact

  Allison Santorelli, [35][email protected], (301) 427-9000

Related Features //

  [36]Get ready: Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1
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  2022 — was a Category-4 storm that caused 29 direct and indirect deaths
  and more than 3 billion dollars in damages. Due to the death and
  destruction, the name “Fiona” was retired from the rotating lists of
  Atlantic tropical cyclone names by the World Meteorological
  Organization in 2023.
  [37]Knowing your 'safe place': Daycare follows tornado safety plan,
  saves lives
   One of the many evacuated classrooms in Crosspoint Daycare during
  January 2023 tornado in Selma, Alabama.

  Last updated May 2, 2023
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