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Forecasters: 2023 Will Be a 'Very Active' Hurricane Season

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By NIRANJANA RAJALAKSHMI ,
[49]Futurity
| May 3, 2023 10:47 AM ET

Forecasters expect a hurricane season similar to 2017, one of the worst and
most costly on record.

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After two years of relatively mild hurricane seasons, 2023 will see
above-average hurricane activity, researchers predict.

The forecasters expect the number of major hurricanes this year to be
similar to 2017, which saw the extremely intense hurricanes Harvey,
Irma, and Maria.

Since 2014, hurricane activity has been accurately predicted by a model
created by Xubin Zeng, a professor of hydrology and atmospheric
sciences at the University of Arizona, and his former graduate student
Kyle Davis.

“We are not expecting this to be as damaging as 2017,” Zeng says. That
said, he emphasizes that “people should get prepared.”

“This will be a very active hurricane season. That’s our message,” says
Zeng, adding that the [52]East Coast and Gulf Coast are typically the
regions where hurricanes have the greatest impacts.

OCEAN BASIN WINNERS AND LOSERS

The researchers are forecasting nine hurricanes this year, five of
which are expected to be major hurricanes. Historically, the average
number of hurricanes per year has been seven. In 2017, there were 10
hurricanes, six of which were very damaging, Zeng says. The good news
this year, is that fewer hurricane landfalls are expected compared to
2017.

This year is particularly interesting, Zeng says, because there will be
a fight between two big ocean basins over which will have greater
influence on hurricane activities, thanks to the rising eastern Pacific
Ocean sea surface temperature compared to previous years.

“We expect a good, nice El Niño to come back after a few years of La
Niña,” Zeng explains.

[53]El Niño and [54]La Niña are two opposite extremes of sea surface
temperatures, rainfall, surface pressure, and atmospheric circulation
happening across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. While El Niño represents
an above-average temperature of the sea surface over the eastern
Pacific, La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea surface
temperature. This year, due to the activity of El Niño, or the warm
phase, less hurricane activity would be expected over the North
Atlantic.

But at the same time, the ocean surface temperature over the Atlantic
this year will also be very warm, and that tends to increase hurricane
activities, Zeng adds.

The forecasting team is not yet certain which ocean basin will be the
“winner” in the battle and will update its predictions in June.

HURRICANE SEASON WINDS

Hurricanes are violent storms that form over warm tropical oceans. They
begin as low-pressure areas and subsequently enhance thunderstorm
activity as they move through the moisture-rich tropics. The warm ocean
air rises and cools, leading to the formation of clouds and
thunderstorms. In the clouds, water vapor condenses and forms droplets
that further fuel the storm by releasing heat.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the
federal agency for weather forecasting, wind speeds that reach 74 mph
within a storm are classified as hurricanes.

Though atmospheric wind is a great metric for predicting individual
hurricanes, as noted in a recent study published by Zeng and his
collaborators, [55]wind measurements are not useful for predicting
hurricane seasons.

That’s because “atmospheric winds do not have long memory,” Zeng says.
“The wind today will change tomorrow or two weeks later, unlike ocean
temperature that stays the same for a long time.”

So, for individual hurricanes, the initial wind condition is crucial.
But for predicting hurricane seasons ahead of time, the initial
condition of the wind does not matter much.

Each year, the researchers release their [56]hurricane
predictions initially in April and again later in June. In April, their
forecasting is based on the seasonal prediction from the European
Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, an independent
intergovernmental organization that produces global numerical weather
predictions. Using machine learning, Zeng’s research group processes
the forecast released by the European organization.

In June, the forecasters use a combination of the output from the
forecasting model and observational data from March through May. This
is the ninth consecutive year of the University of Arizona researchers’
hurricane forecasting.

“One of the reasons for our successes so far is we are proactively
tuning and revising our model every year,” Zeng says.
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