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  Perspectives October 13, 2022

Threats to the US Midterm Elections Have Been Building for Years

  The festering problems that erupted after the last presidential
  election are still unresolved.
  Written By
  Headshot for Philip Friedrich
  [59]

Philip Friedrich

  Senior Research Analyst for Technology and Elections
  [60]

  @PhilFriedrich
  amy slipowitz research manager freedom in the world
  [61]

Amy Slipowitz

  Research Manager
  [62]

  amy_slip
  US Elections Voting


  As the United States heads toward midterm elections on November 8, the
  political environment remains haunted by the coup attempt that
  culminated in a violent attack on the Capitol in January 2021.

  Social and mainstream media are overrun with narratives that
  preemptively cast doubt on the integrity of this year's balloting by
  repeating false claims of a "stolen" 2020 election. While the courts
  found no credible evidence of large-scale fraud two years ago, the
  persistent claims have contributed to a trend in which state- and
  local-level election administration has grown more politicized,
  election officials face worsening harassment and intimidation, and some
  state legislatures have attempted to make voting more difficult in the
  name of electoral security.

  But the problems threatening US elections did not begin in 2020. They
  are part of a much older pattern of deterioration in America's
  democratic institutions that must be addressed if the country is to
  meaningfully advance the cause of global freedom.

The deterioration of US democracy

  Through our flagship Freedom in the World publication, Freedom House
  [63]has documented a significant decline in political rights and civil
  liberties in the United States over the past decade. In 2010, the
  country's total score stood at 94 on the report's 100-point scale, on
  par with other established democracies like France and Germany. In
  [64]2022, the United States still has an overall status of Free, but
  its total score has fallen to 83, placing it with less robust
  democracies like Panama and Romania.

  The [65]problems driving the decline include partisan gerrymandering,
  the excessive influence of special interests in politics,
  politicization of the judicial appointment process, and a polarized
  media landscape--all of which encourage extremism and thwart moderation
  and compromise in the public interest. The resulting dysfunction serves
  to further erode confidence in democratic institutions, fueling demands
  for antidemocratic solutions.

  The United States' troubles must also be placed in the context of 16
  consecutive years of global democratic decline. Populist leaders within
  democracies around the world have systematically worked to undermine or
  dismantle the institutions meant to hold them accountable and place
  checks on their power. And as established authoritarian regimes
  escalate their repression at home and aggression abroad, they have
  benefited from the internal disarray among democratic powers like the
  United States, whose efficacy and credibility as defenders of
  fundamental rights at the international level depend on the strength
  and example of their own systems.

Rising electoral manipulation and political violence

  Although US democracy was ailing for years before the events of January
  2021, the coup attempt continues to send shockwaves through the
  American political system. The actual assault on the Capitol was the
  result of a months-long effort by former president Donald Trump and his
  allies to cast doubt on Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential
  election with groundless claims about voter fraud. Despite a raft of
  judicial rulings and audits that refuted those claims, the false
  narrative is still pervasive.

  Under the pretense of "securing" elections against these imagined
  threats, Trump and his supporters have been laying the groundwork for
  future balloting to be manipulated or even overturned. Last year, for
  example, 19 state legislatures [66]passed 34 new laws that limit access
  to voting in some form, including through stricter voter-identification
  requirements without protections to ensure eligible voters are able to
  obtain ID, and curbs on mail-in voting. At least five state
  legislatures have passed new laws [67]that will be in effect by
  November and could further destabilize the electoral process; they
  variously allow for more partisan control over electoral bodies that
  were traditionally bipartisan or otherwise impartial, devote resources
  to investigating infrequent and statistically insignificant
  election-related crimes, and establish criminal penalties for
  conduct--like [68]accepting private funding to support underfunded
  election administration activities--that had been essential for running
  safe and secure elections in the past.

  Politicized attempts to protect election integrity could actually
  weaken it. Independent media reports have raised concerns that factions
  within the Republican Party are [69]preparing attempts to undermine the
  2022 midterms at the precinct level by staffing election offices and
  polling sites with partisan observers and poll workers who are
  instructed to [70]"target and potentially overturn votes in Democratic
  precincts." These operatives reportedly plan to overwhelm election
  officials with legal challenges to votes, voters, and voting machines.
  Many election offices have already been [71]bombarded by unusually
  large numbers of records requests, complicating their work ahead of
  election day. Several Republican candidates for governor and secretary
  of state, offices that have considerable power over election
  administration and certification, have [72]indicated their willingness
  to pursue audits that would make election machinery more susceptible to
  hacking and tampering. And at a broader administrative level, appeals
  to protect election security have been used as a pretext for actions
  that would have the opposite effect, as was the case with Louisiana's
  withdrawal from the Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC),
  a bipartisan tool for sharing voter-registration data across state
  lines and between government agencies. The data-sharing facilitated by
  ERIC allows for states to maintain more accurate voter rolls.

  In this post-2020 environment, marked by the stolen-election lie and
  broader mistrust in the institutions of US democracy, election
  officials and workers [73]have also faced escalating threats of
  violence. The secretary of state in [74]Colorado, for instance, has
  received numerous death threats on social media and in public this
  year, including calls for her to be hung. In August, a [75]Justice
  Department task force said it had investigated more than 1,000 messages
  or encounters that election officials reported as hostile or harassing
  during its first year in operation, leading to multiple state and
  federal prosecutions. The phenomenon has prompted many local
  administrators to resign or consider resigning.

  Given the recent declines in US democracy and the [76]mainstreaming of
  political violence, the upcoming elections could serve as a major
  flashpoint. In its June 2022 National Terrorism Advisory System
  Bulletin, the Department of Homeland Security [77]warned that the
  United States was in a "heightened threat environment" that could grow
  worse with the midterm elections, among other events. The rise of armed
  protests, particularly at government facilities, coupled with the
  decentralized nature of the US electoral system, suggests that as in
  2020, the facilities that collect and count votes could become targets
  for intimidation and possible violence.

Restoring and strengthening US democracy

  Many lawmakers recognize the urgent need to strengthen US democracy. A
  bipartisan group of senators and representatives are advancing
  legislation to reform the Electoral Count Act, which could help protect
  legitimate presidential election results by raising the threshold for
  objections to Electoral College vote tallies, among other provisions.
  This would guard against the use of bad-faith appeals to election
  security and false claims of fraud to disrupt the certification
  process. Many additional measures could be taken to bolster democratic
  institutions, including the closure of gaps in executive and
  legislative ethics rules and reinforcement of the authority and
  independence of inspectors general, both of which would improve
  government accountability and public trust.

  More broadly, all those who believe in American democracy, from public
  officials to ordinary citizens, should dedicate themselves to a unified
  and holistic effort to repair and strengthen our shared institutions,
  while constantly working to persuade others that this is a worthy
  endeavor. Elections themselves can be a powerful engine for democratic
  renewal, but only if a critical mass of citizens and leaders are
  willing to prioritize the enduring public good over narrow and
  ephemeral partisan interests. Protecting the integrity of the 2022
  midterms will require the same sort of commitment to democratic norms
  and institutions that ultimately brought the country back from the
  brink of disaster two years ago.

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