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Does covid cause brain damage?

covid head brain damage

The latest in the long succession of attempts at maximizing people’s
fear of covid is the claim that it causes brain damage. And not just in
those who have spent time in the ICU, in everyone, even if all they had
was a mild cold. The claim is currently doing the rounds on social
media (apparently alarmist propaganda only counts as misinformation if
it’s going against the dominant narrative). The assertion comes from a
[13]paper that’s recently been published in EClinicalMedicine (a
daughter journal of The Lancet). The paper is actually quite
illuminating about the current state of medical research, so I thought
it would be interesting to go through it in some detail.

81,337 individuals residing in the UK completed an on-line test of
their cognitive function. They also provided information on their covid
status (whether or not they thought they’d had it, and how sick they
were), as well as a bunch of other demographic information. The data
was collected from January to December 2020.

12,689 (16%) of the 81,337 participants indicated that they thought
they had had covid-19. They were sorted by the researchers in to five
categories based on the severity of disease, from “ill without
respiratory symptoms” to “hospitalised and on a ventilator”. The
results from these five categories were then compared with the results
from the 68,648 people that didn’t think they’d had covid.

The reason the study is causing such a stir is because of the results.
All five of the “I think I’ve had covid” categories performed worse on
the cognitive function test than the “I don’t think I’ve had covid”
category did. The reduction in performance was correlated with the
severity of disease, with the people who had been on a ventilator
performing worst – according to the researchers their results were
equivalent to a seven point reduction on an IQ test. If we assume that
the non-covid group have an IQ of 100, this would mean that the group
that had been on a ventilator have an IQ of 93.

Ok, open and shut, right? Having covid makes you more stupid, and the
more severe disease you have, the more stupid you become. Well, not
quite.

The first thing that needs to be pointed out is that this was an
observational study. Observational studies cannot usually say anything
about cause and effect, [14]because the participants haven’t been
randomly assigned to the different groups (as they would have been in a
randomized controlled trial). The inability to draw any conclusions
about cause and effect is especially true when the difference between
the groups is small, as it is in this study. There could well be major
underlying differences between the groups that explain the differences
in performance on the cognitive function test.

When we go through the demographic data, we see that this is actually
the case, in particular when it comes to chronic conditions. Chronic
liver disease (such as for example liver cirrhosis) was more common in
those who thought they had had covid, and the relative rate increased
the more severely sick people had been with covid. Chronic lung disease
(such as COPD) and chronic kidney disease also co-varied with severity
of covid. These underlying illnesses could on their own confound the
results enough to explain the differences in cognitive performance seen
in the study. People with underlying chronic diseases have worse
cognitive function, and they’re also more likely to become severely ill
if they get covid. Just because you see a correlation doesn’t mean
there’s a cause and effect relationship!

The groups also varied in terms of the proportion in each category that
had ADHD. The people who didn’t think they’d had covid were less likely
to have ADHD than the people who thought they’d had covid. Oddly,
severity of disease correlated quite closely with the probability of
having ADHD. This matters, because it’s likely that people with ADHD
will underperform on many parts of a cognitive function test. If the
researchers wanted to, they could have interpreted this as showing that
covid causes ADHD. But they didn’t, because that would be silly. Yet
the exact same logic (correlation between two variables in
observational data) was used to claim that covid causes brain damage.

It’s worth noting that for all the possible confounding factors that
the authors of the study have asked the participants about and tried to
account for, there are many more that they haven’t asked about, and
that could also explain the results seen in the study. Confounding
isn’t something that should be taken lightly, which is why conclusions
about cause and effect shouldn’t be drawn from purely associational
data.

The second thing that needs to be pointed out is that this study was
cross-sectional. In other words, participants only had their cognitive
function tested at one time. That in itself makes it impossible to say
anything about whether the participants performance decreased after
having had covid, because we have no idea what their performance was
before they got covid. If you want to know if something has changed
over time you need to do a longitudinal study, where you test people
multiple times.

The fact that the study was observational and cross-sectional, and that
there were big underlying differences between the groups, is on its own
enough to disqualify any claims about this study being able to show
that covid causes brain damage. But it gets worse. A lot worse.

A major problem with the study is that 97%(!) of the people who thought
they’d had covid lacked testing to confirm the diagnosis. Of the 12,689
that thought they’d had covid, only 386 actually had a confirmed
diagnosis. The only group in which the majority actually had a positive
test confirming that they had had covid was the group that had been on
a ventilator in an intensive care unit! If you can’t even be sure that
97% of participants actually had the disease you’re trying to draw
conclusions about, then you really don’t have a leg to stand on.

I think it’s worth remembering that, even during the covid peak, only
around 20% of covid tests were coming back positive. In other words,
even when covid was spreading at its most rampant, most people who had
a respiratory infection did not have covid. They had something else. It
is therefore reasonable to think that at least 80% of the 97% (i.e. at
least 78% of participants) that think they had covid, did not in fact
have it. What that means is that the study is rubbish, and cannot make
any claims about covid whatsoever. Yet it does. And it’s been published
in a peer reviewed journal.

To me, the main lesson here is that we currently live in a world where
junk science goes unquestioned and gets published in peer-reviewed
journals as long as it feeds in to the dominant narrative. If this
study had been claiming, say, that face masks didn’t work, then it
would remain stuck at the pre-print stage forever, or, if it ever did
get published, it would immediately have been retracted. It has become
blatantly obvious over the past year and a half that it is not
primarily the quality of studies that determines where and whether they
get published, but rather their acceptability to the powers that be.

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Author [23]Sebastian Rushworth, M.D.Posted on [24]26 July, 202126 July,
2021Categories [25]Covid 19Tags [26]covid-19, [27]Epidemiology,
[28]Evidence based medicine

24 thoughts on “Does covid cause brain damage?”

1.
Pip Waller says:
[29]26 July, 2021 at 13:01
thank you so much, Sebastian, for your intelligent and clear
writing. A rare beacon of light in an increasingly bonkers world.
[30]Reply
2.
Barbara says:
[31]26 July, 2021 at 13:11
Prolonged stress (isolation, anxiety, helplessness) can be
cognitively debilitating. The response by governments to, and the
fear produced by, the virus are as likely to disrupt brain function
as the virus itself.
[32]Reply
3.
Pamela Matlack-Klein says:
[33]26 July, 2021 at 13:13
No surprise to me that fear-mongering over covid is progressing at
an alarming rate. The amount of disinformation and outright lying
that is being published as fact crosses all areas of research and
it is nearly impossible to believe much that is coming out in MSM
journals.
Currently, in order to sit inside a restaurant in Portugal one must
present proof of vaccination or a negative test! Otherwise al
fresco dining is the only alternative. The same applies to staying
in a hotel. At least hotels are selling self-tests for around
3Euros that one does in front of the desk clerk.
What’s next? Maybe we will be required to wear an identifying badge
or tattoo….
[34]Reply
4.
SuSanna says:
[35]26 July, 2021 at 13:44
I always glad when I see a blog from you.
This completely mad world need people like you.
I share your blogs everywhere I can.
[36]Reply
5.
Arb says:
[37]26 July, 2021 at 14:10
From the paper, the lead author is associated with Imperial
College, which sadly at the moment is enough on its own to
discredit a piece of medical research.
[38]Reply
6.
Michael Nappin says:
[39]26 July, 2021 at 14:17
Sebastian you are like a ray of very welcome sunshine in this
seemingly endless doomladen Covid messaging and responses
especially from the UK government. We seem to have lost all sense
of perspective in a crisis which shows no sign of ending.
Keep up the good work.
Michael
[40]Reply
7.
[41]Beny says:
[42]26 July, 2021 at 14:37
Bravo, Sebastian!
You are so right. The last paragraph perfectly summarises the
current state of affairs in the scientific publishing industry.
Incidentally I managed to published one the very few papers that
were not pro-mask in the post-covid era. It is a small paper that
shows that the probability of viral transmission outdoors, using
bacteriophages as surrogates, is very low, thus implying that mask
wearing outdoors is completely unnecessary. (Not that indoors masks
have much of an effect).
Even though the message of the paper was quite mild, it was not
easy getting the paper published in a scientific journal.
Link to the paper: [43]https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34046704/
[44]Reply
8.
[45]theasdgamer says:
[46]26 July, 2021 at 14:41
Another covid post? I don’t really care much about the disease
anymore, but I am concerned about the authoritarian attempts to use
fear about covid to control people.
“A major problem with the study is that 97%(!) of the people who
thought they’d had covid lacked testing to confirm the diagnosis.
Of the 12,689 that thought they’d had covid, only 386 actually had
a confirmed diagnosis. The only group in which the majority
actually had a positive test confirming that they had had covid was
the group that had been on a ventilator in an intensive care unit!
If you can’t even be sure that 97% of participants actually had the
disease you’re trying to draw conclusions about, then you really
don’t have a leg to stand on.”
What does “had covid” mean? Exposure? Symptoms? What assurance does
“confirmed diagnosis” offer if most doctors are likely to
misdiagnose influenza as covid based on overcycled PCR?
What assurance does being on a vent offer? Influenza patients can
end up on vents.
What are the clearest indicators of covid? Invisible hypoxia?
Elevated D-dimer levels? Elevated IL-6 levels? Bilateral ground
glass opacities in lung scans? Seriously, does covid have to
progress before we can say that we’ve had it? That seems like an
awful solution. And maybe some of us will never be able to reach
that “goal” because our immune systems are too competent.
I would expect every covid patient’s systems (lungs, kidneys,
liver, brains, etc.) to show damage from covid because every system
relies on capillaries and capillaries are invariably damaged in
covid.
This article is thrashing about in quicksand–and so was the
EClinical article. The good news is that there’s still great
opportunity to thrash about in quicksand. (Sure, a PCR test can
possibly show exposure, except when false negatives occur.)
I’m smiling as I write this.
“It has become blatantly obvious over the past year and a half that
it is not primarily the quality of studies that determines where
and whether they get published, but rather their acceptability to
the powers that be.”
I couldn’t agree more.
[47]Reply
9.
Harry Vig says:
[48]26 July, 2021 at 15:33
I’m surprised you didn’t discuss the reverse cause and effect
possibility. The same data could be used to “prove” that having
cognitive brain injury causes people to think they have a case of
Covid-19.
[49]Reply
10.
dearieme says:
[50]26 July, 2021 at 15:42
“The fact that the study was observational and cross-sectional, and
that there were big underlying differences between the groups, is
on its own enough to disqualify any claims about this study being
able to show that covid causes brain damage. ”
And yet Covid incentives clearly cause brain damage in medical
researchers.
[51]Reply
11.
ian kestin says:
[52]26 July, 2021 at 16:06
I used to do some peer reviewing for anaesthesia publications. This
article is a disgrace. The discussion section is supposed to
discuss the limitations of the study, and there is barely a mention
of the problems listed by Dr Rushworth in the published paper. One
aspect that might be relevant is that the journal charges $3500 for
accepted papers. so maybe money talks.
[53]Reply
1.
[54]theasdgamer says:
[55]26 July, 2021 at 17:54
The journal should up its prices, to keep science out of the
hands of riff-raff like academia and those of us in the peanut
gallery and to keep research properly in the hands of pharma.
I’m certain pharma wouldn’t mind paying even 35,000 to get an
article published to keep regulatory and research capture.
[56]Reply
12.
Ian Tyler says:
[57]26 July, 2021 at 16:38
It’s hard to imagine that “science” this poorly executed got
published anywhere at all, but in the baby sister to The Lancet?
Mind you The Lancet has produced some pretty dodgy
“pro-the-current-narrative” publications recently…
[58]Reply
13.
Stephen Rhodes says:
[59]26 July, 2021 at 17:10
The interesting study would be cognitive damage post vaccination
due to the microclots in the brain. Dr Peter McCollough is
convinced by the number of his patients presenting with
neurological damage that it will be a medium to long term problem.
He has an interview over on conservativewoman.
On the other hand Boris Johnson could be an n=1 confirmatory study
of declining mental acuity post ICU that might be easily proven by
examination of his increasingly garbled speeches on everything –
but then he claims to have visited the Jabberwock as well so who
knows.
[60]Reply
1.
Tim Lundeen says:
[61]26 July, 2021 at 18:28
Indeed, the covid vaccines are likely to cause cognitive
decline due to blood clots. Even micro clots could noticeable
issues.
[62]Reply
14.
Masquerade says:
[63]26 July, 2021 at 17:18
“Having covid makes you more stupid, and the more severe disease
you have, the more stupid you become.”
On that basis, I would estimate that most of Western civilisation
has had severe Covid. Mind you, that has to be a major plus for
Herd Immunity.
/sarc end.
[64]Reply
15.
[65]Dr Andrew Bamji says:
[66]26 July, 2021 at 17:27
Much truth in this, especially the muzzling of research and opinion
that runs counter to the establishment, as I too have found. I have
also found it galling that despite my many attempts the media have
also chosen not to return my calls.
That said there is brain damage caused by Covid-19; first, there
may be a cerebral vasculitis (blood vessel inflammation) or
abnormal clotting in the cerebral vessels. This is well-documented.
Second, “Long Covid” is in all probability an autoimmune phenomenon
which produces fatigue, memory issues and the like in much the same
way as one sees in autoimmune rheumatic disorders such as
rheumatoid arthritis and lupus (SLE).
Sebastian is quite right to be highly suspicious of any study which
relies on uncorroborated observational evidence. Knowing if you
have had Covid-19 without appropriate tests is akin to knowing you
have had side-effects from a drug in a randomised trial – where you
may get side-effects despite being in the placebo group.
I would yet again make a plea to distinguish infection with
SARS-CoV-2 (which can be asymptomatic or have minimal symptoms)
from Covid-19. This latter term strictly should refer to the
hyperimmune state induced by the virus, making you seriously ill
and with clearcut test evidence -thus being a subset of SARS-CoV-2
infection – although an identical syndrome can be produced by other
viruses and by some drugs, as well as arising spontaneously due to
a genetic anomaly..
[67]Reply
1.
[68]theasdgamer says:
[69]26 July, 2021 at 18:06
Perhaps the “hyper-immune state” could also be called “immune
deficiency syndrome”, where people are somewhat deficient in
vitamin D and/or zinc.
” Effects of a 2-Week 5000 IU versus 1000 IU Vitamin D3
Supplementation on Recovery of Symptoms in Patients with Mild
to Moderate Covid-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial ”
[70]https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/13/7/2170
[71]Reply
2.
Dave W says:
[72]26 July, 2021 at 18:47
Dr Bamji,
Enjoyed your book. I wonder if you’ve considered that covid
has been the 1755 Lisbon earthquake for us peasants. Our
sinfulness did not bring on the earthquake by refusing to wear
masks and shun our family. You priests and your church have
lost credibility. Every study, diagnosis, theory is just one
more indulgence we have to pay for. Western chattering classes
are desperate for an Ahnenpass 2.0.
[73]Reply
16.
John McCarthy says:
[74]26 July, 2021 at 17:33
Good to have a sensible commentator on the Covid Nonsense. Thank
you, sir. 😷 👍
[75]Reply
1.
Bob Wilsom says:
[76]26 July, 2021 at 18:32
it’s all about the money.
govies just gave the vax guys $4 billion for another 200mm
vaccine doses.
at the same time the govies, via law, removed liability and
accountability from the vax makers. that means full speed
ahead, because there will be no personal or corporate
liability for the damage that has been done and will be done.
so in exchange, the vax makers will be giving huge donations
to the politicians’ PACs. and the vax makers are providing
hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising to the MSM, who
continue to push for vaccinations even to the point of making
them mandatory. that’s it in a nutshell.
[77]Reply
17.
buddhi says:
[78]26 July, 2021 at 19:19
“If this study had been claiming, say, that face masks didn’t work,
then it would remain stuck at the pre-print stage forever, or, if
it ever did get published, it would immediately have been
retracted. It has become blatantly obvious over the past year and a
half that it is not primarily the quality of studies that
determines where and whether they get published, but rather their
acceptability to the powers that be.”
That excellent (if I may say so) observation is Exactly what I
posted on the New York Times site a few minutes ago. It will not
get posted. I posted many others today with my usual cites, data,
links, and smart person quotes – and they all got taken down after
being initially posted. I guess they came to their senses.
I was correcting their misinformation with actual facts and
mainstream power hates that. Most of the well programmed commenters
on the NYT also hate my posts, although they rarely check out my
sources. They just want to parrot the party line. Both Trumpsters
and Liberals are equally enamored of their ideology – and truth is
irrelevant, in fact truth is an existential enemy that must be
crushed.
The mainstream is the primary purveyor of misinformation and this
is a global initiative. If you question the narrative, you get
disparaged.
[79]Reply
18.
roy says:
[80]26 July, 2021 at 19:28
Another great piece, Sebastian. I want to become a patron, but I do
not want to sign up for monthly charges. Is there any way I can
pre-pay a year or two, or make a lump sum payment?
[81]Reply
1.
[82]Sebastian Rushworth, M.D. says:
[83]26 July, 2021 at 19:48
Hi! I’ve added the option to be an annual supporter on
patreon. Hope that helps!
[84]Reply

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