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How I Learned to Stop Worrying And Love the Lab-Leak Theory*

  Donald G. McNeil Jr.
  [11]

  Donald G. McNeil Jr.
  [12]

  1 hour ago·19 min read
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  In early spring 2020, I reported an article for The New York Times on
  which I put the tentative headline: “New Coronavirus Is ‘Clearly Not a
  Lab Leak,’ Scientists Say.”

  It never ran.

  For two reasons.

  The chief one was that inside the Times, we were sharply divided. My
  colleagues who cover national security were being assured by their
  Trump administration sources — albeit anonymously and with no hard
  evidence — that it was a lab leak and the Chinese were covering it up.
  We science reporters were hearing from virologists and zoologists — on
  the record and in great detail — that the odds were overwhelming that
  it was not a lab leak but an animal spillover.

  Frankly, the scientists had more credibility.

  The other reason my story never ran was that it was 4,000 words long
  and full of expressions like “polybasic cleavage site,” “RNA-dependent
  RNA polymerase gene” and “O-linked glycan shields.” Editors would open
  it, their eyeballs would bleed, and they would close it and find
  something else to do.

  (Back then, editors blanched even at “spike protein” and “receptor
  binding domain,” but we’ve all had a crash course in virology this
  year, haven’t we?)

  Although it never ran, others like it did elsewhere. The experts all
  agreed that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was not a deliberate weaponization of
  a previously known virus and that it had no obvious signs of lab
  manipulation (more details below). They noted that blood sampling
  showed that brief “spillovers” of animal viruses into humans happen
  often without causing large outbreaks.

  Therefore, they argued, the odds were that this was another virus that
  got lucky, like SARS and MERS and the 2009 pandemic flu: it had dwelled
  long enough inside a civet or camel or pig or something to infect
  human-like cells, and then had hit the big city.

  For about a year, that was the general wisdom among science writers.
  The “lab-leak theory” migrated back to the far right where it had
  started — championed by the folks who brought us Pizzagate, the
  Plandemic, Kung Flu, Q-Anon, Stop the Steal, and the January 6 Capitol
  invasion. It was tarred by the fact that everyone backing it seemed to
  hate not just Democrats and the Chinese Communist Party, but even the
  Chinese themselves. It spawned racist rumors like “Chinese labs sell
  their dead experimental animals in food markets.”

  China retorting to Trump administration nonsense with nonsense of its
  own — such as suggesting that [13]U.S. military officers planted the
  virus during a visit to Wuhan in October 2019 — did not help.

  And now to the present day.

  Two weeks ago, my former New York Times science news colleague Nicholas
  Wade wrote [14]an article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (and
  [15]on Medium) arguing that the lab-leak theory deserves a harder look.

  It has since been sent to me a dozen times with notes asking “What do
  you think?”

  My first reaction was dismissive, even though I very much respect Nick
  as a journalist. (Some of his work is controversial and he can be
  cranky, but [16]who am I to criticize anyone on those grounds?) I
  covered the pandemic from its earliest days and I disagreed with his
  retelling of how the leak-vs.-spillover debate began.

  Also, I was offended by some aspects, such as his attacks on Dr.
  Anthony S. Fauci of the National Institutes of Health and Peter Daszak
  of the EcoHealth Alliance, both of whom I have known [17]for years; I
  know both are dedicated to saving lives, and they have always [18]told
  me the truth — or what they honestly believed to be the truth at the
  time, because evidence sometimes changes. They are now both getting
  death threats, and that is repulsive.

  The N.I.H.-funded EcoHealth Alliance does not do dangerous lab
  research; it doesn’t even have a lab. It [19]hunts for dangerous
  viruses in the field; its zoologists teach people how to safely gather
  samples from bats, birds, chimpanzees and other creatures fortified
  with claws, teeth, beaks, muscles and pathogens.

  That’s work I consider as essential as staffing the radar stations that
  watch for missiles coming over the North Pole. The Trump administration
  was insane [20]to cut off funding for it. You need to know what’s
  coming at you. Actually cooking up novel threats is a different matter,
  of which more below.

  I was also bothered by Nick quoting Dr. Robert Redfield, the former
  director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To my mind,
  after being [21]warned about the virus by his Chinese counterpart in
  the first week of January, Dr. Redfield failed to shout from the
  rooftops and move mountains — and now 600,000 Americans are dead. He
  also raised the specter of [22]a flu-Covid “twindemic” that turned out
  to be [23]virological alarmism.

  But…but…but…but…but…

  The deeper I read into the papers and articles Nick cited, the clearer
  it became how much new information had trickled out in the last year.
  Not new to the most intense and well-educated followers of this topic,
  but new to the greater public debate. I include articles like [24]this,
  [25]this, [26]this, [27]this and [28]this by Yuri Deigin, Rossana
  Segretto, Milton Leitenberg, Josh Rogin, Nicholson Baker and others.

  And more and and more scientists feel misled.

  I now agree with Nick’s central conclusion: We still do not know the
  source of this awful pandemic. We may never know. But the argument that
  it could have leaked out of the Wuhan Institute of Virology or a sister
  lab in Wuhan has become considerably stronger than it was a year ago,
  when the screaming was so loud that it drowned out serious discussion.

  And China’s lack of candor is disturbing. It denies access to the
  institute’s lab logs and whatever messages were swapped during its own
  investigations, took down 2018 statements critical of lab biosecurity
  protocols, [29]retaliated against Australia for advocating an open
  investigation and sharply restricted the W.H.O. investigators.

  Calls for a better probe are mounting. Last week, 18 biologists,
  including leading and outspoken experts on this pandemic like the
  Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch and Yale immunologist Akiko
  Iwasaki, published [30]a letter in Science [31]calling for a new
  investigation and demanding that Chinese labs and public health
  agencies open their records to outside scrutiny.

  To my mind, China could be forgiven for its standoffishness in early
  2020. It was busy fighting its own pandemic. And if China had, say,
  arrogantly offered to teach the American C.D.C. how to investigate
  [32]America’s killer hamburgers — the equivalent of the way the Trump
  administration spoke to China back then — we would have snubbed them
  too.

  But now, 17 months later, China is persistently acting like a nation
  hiding something.

  Also worrying: the hunt for the spillover theory’s smoking gun — a very
  closely related natural virus in a human or an animal — has gone on for
  over a year. Success would mean big prizes for the discoverer —
  especially from the Chinese government, which could say “See??”

  And yet — zip. That doesn’t mean it won’t be found. But by now we might
  have expected at least some smoking shell casings.

  I had been skeptical of the “lab leak” theory because animal spillover
  is such an obvious answer. Genetics has proven that almost every
  disease mankind has faced jumped from animals: bubonic plague from
  rodents, measles probably from cows, whooping cough maybe from dogs,
  and so on.

  Also, the leak idea was just too conveniently conspiratorial.

  I’ve covered several pandemics and studied others and one element is
  consistent: they start in utter confusion that defies any sense that an
  evil genius at work. Doctors know something’s wrong, but aren’t sure
  what. That was true when American veterans started dying of pneumonia
  after a 1976 convention ([33]Legionnaire’s disease); when the [34]Bronx
  Zoo’s birds started dropping dead in 1999 (West Nile virus); when
  [35]young nurses fell ill in Mexico City in 2009 (swine flu); when
  camel butchers [36]died in Saudi Arabia (MERS); and when Brazilian
  babies were born [37]with shrunken heads (Zika).

  This pandemic’s opening days were also shrouded in fog, and yes, there
  was a government coverup. But it was outed immediately and it didn’t
  emanate from Beijing.

  In [38]late December 2019, doctors at hospitals near the Huanan Seafood
  Market began seeing a strange viral pneumonia they couldn’t identify.
  On Dec. 30, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission [39]issued a warning.

  It was quickly picked by disease-alert websites like FluTrackers and
  [40]ProMED; the W.H.O. [41]put out an alert the next day. The New York
  Times wrote [42]its first article on January 6, from Beijing; I started
  [43]helping my China colleagues soon after.

  By that time, one coverup had been underway for a week. Wuhan’s
  politically ambitious mayor, [44]Zhou Xianwang, was eager to protect
  the local party congress he had scheduled for January and the
  [45]pot-luck dinner for 40,000 Wuhanese he hoped would get him into the
  Guinness Book of Records.

  On January 1, his police silenced the nervous doctors. The Hainan
  Seafood Market was closed and hosed down.

  That was the equivalent of trampling a crime scene. The market’s wild
  game sellers — who might have had the infected animal, if there was one
  — scattered. Any live animals or fresh meat probably went to other
  markets or into the trash. Customers disappeared. The chance to use the
  market as the hub of a good epidemiological investigation was lost.

  At the same time, other events occurred that looked like coverups, but
  maybe weren’t. As soon as it was clear that the threat was a dangerous
  new coronavirus, the local health commission and then the national one
  [46]ordered diagnostic and genetics labs to destroy their samples or
  surrender them to high-level biosecurity labs. Most labs chose
  incineration — another crime scene wrecked.

  That smacked of coverup, and was treated as such by the Trump
  administration, but it’s actually standard safety procedure to prevent
  outbreaks. Our C.D.C. gave the same order in 2014 when it realized that
  hospital labs had samples from Ebola patients being treated in
  [47]Dallas and Omaha. “We told the labs in Texas and Nebraska to
  destroy them or send them to Fort Detrick,” Dr. Pierre E. Rollin, who
  [48]recently retired from the C.D.C after 26 years of fighting global
  outbreaks, told me. “You can call that a cover-up, but it was a public
  health decision.”

  During those first days in Wuhan, a major misconception circulated —
  that the virus did not spread easily between people. The W.H.O.
  repeated it, so did we. But that was not necessarily deliberate
  misinformation. With the market closed, the epicenter had scattered a
  few dozen cases across a city of 11 million. Very few PCR tests
  existed, and it was the height of flu season. At such times, it’s hard
  to know who infected whom with what.

  Also, I don’t believe the image of China as a Teflon pyramid with Xi
  Jinping at the apex, the evil emperor who sees every sparrow that
  falls. It’s like other big countries, even totalitarian ones: messy,
  with competing scientists and petty bureaucrats. Its flaws often become
  public despite Beijing’s rigid control of the internet.

  Each day back then, the rumors got more bizarre. Some scientists
  [49]claimed the virus had snake genes. Others said it [50]was part
  H.I.V., triggering [51]claims that it was a bio-weapon.

  Some of that fog of war lifted after [52]Beijing sent Dr. Zhong
  Nanshan, the country’s renowned epidemiologist, to Wuhan to demand the
  truth. On January 20th, Dr. Zhong warned on national TV that the virus
  was spreading rapidly and that outsiders should stay away. On January
  23, Wuhan was cut off from the world, [53]Mayor Xian apologized, and
  China launched its brutal but amazingly successful effort to crush its
  epidemic.

  The [54]first article I know of blaming the Wuhan Institute of Virology
  ran on January 26 in the Washington Times, a conservative paper founded
  by the Unification Church. It seemed based on two elements — the lab
  was in the same city (albeit nine miles from the market), and a brief,
  speculative quote from an Israeli biowarfare expert, [55]Dany Shoham.

  “Certain laboratories in the institute have probably been engaged, in
  terms of research and development in Chinese [biological weapons], at
  least collaterally, yet not as a principal facility of the Chinese BW
  alignment,” the paper quoted Dr. Shoham as saying. Any work on
  biological weapons would be “definitely covert,” he added.

  When I reached Dr. Shoham by telephone later, he spoke very cautiously.
  He had not been misquoted, he said, but he emphasized that he had never
  said that deadly virus came from that lab. He had said only that it
  “was possible” that such a virus could have come from such a lab.

  But the rumor was [56]off and running.

  Then, on February 3 — a week later — scientists from that Institute
  produced what smelled like a smoking gun.

  They published [57]an article on Nature’s open-access website saying
  one of the hundreds of coronaviruses gathered from bat caves that was
  in their freezers was a 96.2 percent match to SARS-CoV-2.

  They called it RaTG13 (indicating a Rhinolophus affinis horseshoe bat
  captured in Tong Guan cave in Yunnan in 2013).

  For conspiracy theorists, that was the clincher — if the lab had a 96
  percent match, it must have leaked the killer.

  But many of the world’s top virologists leapt to say “Not so fast.”

  Coronaviruses mutate slowly, so a 4 percent mismatch in the 30,000 base
  pairs of the two viruses meant RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-2 had diverged maybe
  40 years ago, evolutionary geneticists said.

  On February 16, as rumors swirled, five of the world’s top virologists
  got together to publish [58]a letter on virological.org explaining why
  animal origin was more likely.

  The letter, titled “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2,” was later[59]
  republished in the journal Nature.

  Its basic argument was that any lab trying to make a super-dangerous
  virus would start with the backbone of one already known to be pretty
  dangerous, like 2002 SARS. This new virus was so different from SARS,
  especially in its receptor binding domain — the crucial bit where the
  spike protein binds to the ACE2 receptor on the surface of a human cell
  — that logically no one would have chosen it.

  The binding domain was much closer to one that had been recently
  [60]found in pangolin viruses, so it was likely the pandemic virus had
  jumped from bats to an animal — perhaps pangolins but not necessarily.

  Also, the new virus had a cleavage site unlike those in related
  coronaviruses. (After binding to a cell, the spike has to “[61]cleave”
  or split open, to meld with the surface and inject its RNA.) The new
  virus’s cleavage site was an unusual set of amino acids in an unusual
  spot on the genome. Such unexpected choices seemed more likely to
  happen during the constant random evolution that goes on in nature
  rather than the logic-driven “let’s try this next” methods of a lab.

  Also the virus’s spikes had “glycans” which [62]act as shields to
  protect them from antibodies. A virus sunbathing in a friendly lab cell
  culture wouldn’t need to evolve shields, while a virus constantly
  fighting off immune system attacks because it was evolving inside an
  animal would, they argued.

  Therefore, they concluded, “we do not believe that any type of
  laboratory-based scenario is plausible.”

  The paper’s first author, [63]Kristian G. Andersen of the Scripps
  Research Translational Institute, is [64]still vigorously defending the
  paper’s basic premise — that an animal origin is by far the most
  likely.

  But other eminent virologists, including at least one of his
  co-authors, are wavering.

  During the uproar that ensued after the institute revealed that the
  RaTG13 strain was in its freezers, Dr. Daszak argued that merely having
  a virus in a frozen fecal pellet meant little. Infections take place
  only when viruses are warmed up and growing in cell cultures or
  animals.

  Dr. Daszak had worked for years with Dr. Shi Zheng-li, the “[65]Bat
  Woman” who now runs the Wuhan institute. His zoologists and field
  veterinarians had taught her bat-sampling — a dangerous practice even
  in caves with tourists in bathing suits wandering around.

  Freezers contain hundreds of viruses. It is too expensive to fully
  sequence all of them and impossible to grow them all out in cell
  culture, he explained. So labs create a set of “bookmarks.” They
  sequence one short gene, called RdRP, that seldom mutates and keep a
  list of their RdRPs. Sometimes they post their lists to a public
  database like GISAID or Genbank.

  Since the world had previously been looking only for relatives of the
  dangerous 2002 SARS or MERS, he said, labs would care only if a virus’
  RdRP gene closely matched those.

  “If it doesn’t, it’s of no interest, so you pop it back in the
  freezer,” he said.

  Later, if a new dangerous virus turns up, labs can check their
  bookmarks for a match, thaw that one out and sequence all of it. That
  was why RaTG13 was found so quickly, he said. Ditto for pangolin virus
  sequences [66]found in the freezers of the South China Agricultural
  University.

  Because there were no viruses with closer RdRP matches either in public
  databanks or in a private Wuhan Institute list of 630 unposted RdRP
  genes he had seen, he said, the Wuhan lab presumably held nothing
  closer than a 40-year-distant relative of the killer virus.

  “Believe me, if there had been, no one would have kept that a secret,”
  he said to me more than a year ago. “It would be a huge discovery. We’d
  be over the moon.”

  Dr. Shi herself later [67]told Scientific American that, when news of
  the new virus erupted, her first fear was that it had come from her
  institute. She did not sleep for days, she said, until she had finished
  checking her lab’s logs and assured herself that it had not.

  Since then, though, more has come to light about the work done by Dr.
  Shi’s teams.

  The most startling bit of information was that, rather than “finding”
  RaTG13 in her freezers in February, Dr. Shi had worked with it
  [68]since at least 2016, but under a different name, RaBtCoV/4991.

  RaBtCoV/4991 had not been gathered at random but from a mineshaft in
  which miners digging bat guano got pneumonia, some fatally. Dr. Shi’s
  lab sequenced enough of it to be able to say it was the most
  “SARS-like” of the viruses from that investigation.

  There were arguments over whether the miners died of fungal pneumonia,
  viral pneumonia or both, but that link made it a likely suspect for any
  lab wanting to explore dangerous viruses. Not mentioning her previous
  work with it was troubling.

  Also, Dr. Shi was [69]trained by Ralph S. Baric of the University of
  North Carolina in building “chimera” viruses — taking, for example, the
  spike protein from a new virus and splicing it to the backbone of a
  known one like SARS. He invented “[70]no-see-um” techniques that left
  no trace of the splice.

  (Interestingly, Dr. Baric is one of the signers of [71]the letter to
  Science demanding a more thorough investigation of all Wuhan labs.)

  Then, to see if the new chimeras could infect people, they were tested
  against human airway cells and “humanized” mice — mice bred to have
  human ACE-2 receptors on their organs.

  There is [72]debate over whether this is truly “gain of function”
  research. Some argue that gain of function strictly involves taking a
  virus already known to endanger humans and trying to make it more
  lethal or more transmissible.

  So Dr. Fauci was answering truthfully in [73]his bitter exchange with
  Senator Rand Paul on May 11.

  But many other scientists feel this is a distinction without a
  difference. They feel that building any new virus from suspect parts
  and then seeing if it infects humans is just as risky.

  Like nuclear bomb testing, the need for “gain of function” research is
  hotly contested.

  Proponents argue that it is the only way to stay ahead of epidemics: in
  a world full of emerging diseases, if you can figure out which
  pathogens are only a few amino acids tweaks shy of disaster, you can
  develop and stockpile vaccines and antibodies against them.

  Opponents say that, noble as that goal may be, it is inherently too
  dangerous to pursue by building Frankensteins and poking them to see
  how strong they are.

  Despite constantly rising biosafety levels, viruses we already know to
  be lethal, from smallpox to SARS, have repeatedly broken loose by
  accident.

  Most leaks infect or kill just a few people before they are stopped by
  isolation and/or vaccination. But not all: scientists now believe that
  the H1N1 seasonal flu that killed thousands every year from 1977 to
  2009 [74]was influenza research gone feral. The strain first appeared
  in eastern Russia in 1977 and its genes were initially identical to a
  1950 strain; that could have happened only if it had been in a freezer
  for 27 years. It also initially behaved as if it had been deliberately
  attenuated, or weakened. So scientists suspect it was a Russian effort
  to make a vaccine against a possible return of the 1918 flu. And then,
  they theorize, the vaccine virus, insufficiently weakened, began
  spreading.

  Also, Dr. Shi’s teams had done work on inserting cleavage sites into
  viruses and seeing if that enhanced their ability to infect human
  cells.

  All this raises a disturbing possibility: What if some Wuhan scientist
  — someone in Dr. Shi’s lab or perhaps at the Wuhan Center for Disease
  Control right near the market, or possibly some military scientist she
  trained but could not control — did something like take the likely
  suspect virus RaBtCoV/4991 and use it as the “backbone” for a set of
  chimeras with different receptor binding domains? What if that
  scientist was trying in 2019 to attach binding domains from viruses
  recently [75]found in dying pangolins seized from wildlife smugglers in
  southern China? What if someone got tempted to add a cleavage site to
  see if that supercharged it?

  What if various such chimeras were passaged through cultures of human
  cells or humanized mice? Wouldn’t that speed up mutations into forms
  likely to infect humans even faster than nature can? Wouldn’t that mean
  that something that looked like the current pandemic strain could
  emerge, polybasic cleavage sites, O-linked glycans and all?

  And what if someone doing that work in a less secure lab than should
  have been permitted got infected before catching the subway home?

  It’s a lot of ifs, and it’s pure speculation, which has been going on
  since mid-last year.

  Jon Cohen of Science magazine [76]put essentially these very questions
  to Dr. Shi back in August, 2020.

  She said no such work took place in her lab, and that the RaBtCoV/4991
  virus had only been sequenced, not isolated or grown out as a virus
  before the sample was used up. Everyone in her lab had tested negative
  for antibodies to SARS-like coronaviruses so there was no evidence of
  an outbreak inside, she said. And she had been assured through regular
  conversations with other Wuhan labs that that they had no leaks either.

  Doubts have been raised about that, including the question: since
  Covid-19 was racing through Wuhan in early 2020, how likely would it be
  that no one in her lab tested antibody-positive? Wouldn’t some have
  gotten infected outside?

  Ultimately, much of the debate comes down to this: Is Dr. Shi telling
  the whole truth? And even if she is, are all her similarly skilled
  colleagues in Wuhan? Are they being allowed to do so by their
  government — which has a history of silencing scientists?

  Chinese scientists were allowed to interact with W.H.O. investigators
  only in a very tightly controlled way and very little of the report was
  devoted to the lab leak theory, which it all but dismissed.

  Opening up the 2019 logs of every lab in Wuhan and the 2019–2020 emails
  between scientists and health officials would go a long way to
  restoring trust.

  And the failure to discover any wild viruses that look like
  evolutionary intermediate steps on the way to SARS-Cov-2 is troubling.

  So virologists are feeling more doubts.

  Nick Wade quoted David Baltimore, who won the 1975 Nobel Prize for his
  work with viruses, as saying the specific amino acid sequences in the
  cleavage site made “a powerful challenge to the idea of a natural
  origin.” (This has prompted [77]a complex debate among evolutionary
  geneticists over which specific rungs on the RNA-DNA ladder are
  statistically most likely to appear in a bat virus.)

  I spoke about Nick’s article last week with Dr. W. Ian Lipkin, the
  renowned Columbia University virus hunter who was one of the five
  co-authors on the seminal “proximal origin” paper.

  He favored a natural origin theory, he said, in part because he had
  assumed that all the Wuhan Institute’s 2019 work with SARS-like viruses
  had been done in its top-level BSL-4 lab, which [78]was cleared to
  operate in 2017. (State Department cables from 2018 raised questions
  about how well-run the lab was.)

  But later he learned of studies with Dr. Shi’s name on them showing
  that work [79]he considers dangerous had been done in level BSL-2 labs,
  which he considers highly porous to leaks, not just [80]in 2016, but
  [81]in 2020.

  “That’s screwed up,” he said. “It shouldn’t have happened. People
  should not be looking at bat viruses in BSL-2 labs. My view has
  changed.”

  That is still not, as he pointed out, direct evidence of a lab leak.
  There is no proof of a leak.

  But the Occam’s Razor argument — what’s the likeliest explanation,
  animal or lab? — keeps shifting in the direction of the latter.

  The hardest evidence that it was an animal is still what it was early
  last year: On January 1, right after the market was closed down, and
  then again on January 12, Huazhong Agricultural University and Dr.
  Shi’s Institute gathered almost 600 samples from the block-long warren
  of shuttered stalls.

  Of those swabs, about six percent were positive for the virus,
  [82]according to Xinhua, China’s state news agency. Most came from the
  western end, where the wildlife was sold. And most, Dr. Shi said, were
  from spots near or below floor level — the handles of roll down steel
  shutters and the drains over the floor gutters.

  Finding virus in six percent of surface samples was more than might be
  expected even in a hospital during flu season, Trevor Bedford, an
  evolutionary geneticist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle
  who [83]does flu studies told me last year.

  And the most logical explanation for finding that much virus on the
  floor and in the drains, he speculated, was not coughing humans. It was
  the blood of a butchered animal being sloshed around as the market was
  hosed out.

  Yes, there were cases in early December with no connection to that
  market, but that’s not impossible. Livestock is shipped in batches,
  Wuhan has other live markets. Also, viruses are known to create
  “stuttering chains of transmission” as they become more transmissible.
  We’ve seen the rise of increasingly transmissible variants this year
  and we know this virus alternates between rare transmission and
  superspreading.

  And the wildlife trade is not some dinky smuggling operation. As the
  W.H.O. report detailed, there are large farms in China raising civets,
  badgers and other formerly wild animals for food. A bat virus could
  have raced through them, adapting itself to more human-like animals,
  the same way the human virus raced through Dutch mink farms.

  Also, farmers all over Asia enter caves to dig bat guano for garden
  fertilizer. A study Dr. Daszak’s alliance did on villagers living near
  caves found that three percent had antibodies to bat viruses. That
  translates to up 7 million inhabitants of rural southeast Asia
  potentially catching such viruses each year. There may be many small
  outbreaks that die out without spreading far. Ebola did that at least
  19 times we know of between 1976 and 2014, the year the virus reached a
  big city for the first time.

  So there we are. All we have so far is speculation, and all the
  explanations are unsatisfactory.

  The whole thing may just be a cold case, and stay that way forever. But
  there are more embers left to sift. The whole world, China included,
  needs a hard answer, whoever is to blame — so we can prevent this from
  happening again.

  *The title is from the 1964 film “[84]Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned
  to Stop Worrying and Love The Bomb,” which is about human lies and
  safety failures — and ends with clips of atomic weapons tests depicted
  as the real thing. Not that I think the pandemic is funny. But neither
  is nuclear war.
  [85]

Donald G. McNeil Jr.

  New York Times, 1976–2021. Global health beat 2002–2021. Last
  assignment: lead reporter on the Covid-19 pandemic.
  [86][email protected]
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[92]More from Donald G. McNeil Jr.

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  New York Times, 1976–2021. Global health beat 2002–2021. Last
  assignment: lead reporter on the Covid-19 pandemic.
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[93]NYTimes Peru N-Word, Part Four: What Happened in Peru?

  [94]Donald G. McNeil Jr.
  [1*hn4v1tCaJy7cWMyb0bpNpQ.png?q=20]
  [1*hn4v1tCaJy7cWMyb0bpNpQ.png?q=20] [1*hn4v1tCaJy7cWMyb0bpNpQ.png]

[95]NYTimes Peru N-Word, Part Two: What Happened January 28?

  [96]Donald G. McNeil Jr.
  [1*hn4v1tCaJy7cWMyb0bpNpQ.png?q=20]
  [1*hn4v1tCaJy7cWMyb0bpNpQ.png?q=20] [1*hn4v1tCaJy7cWMyb0bpNpQ.png]

[97]I Got a Vaccine Passport

  [98]Donald G. McNeil Jr.
  [1*avPtwL11SKLV41SWY4guZw.jpeg?q=20]
  [1*avPtwL11SKLV41SWY4guZw.jpeg?q=20] [1*avPtwL11SKLV41SWY4guZw.jpeg]

[99]NYTimes Peru N-Word, Part Three: What Happened in the 2019 Investigation?

  [100]Donald G. McNeil Jr.
  [1*hn4v1tCaJy7cWMyb0bpNpQ.png?q=20]
  [1*hn4v1tCaJy7cWMyb0bpNpQ.png?q=20] [1*hn4v1tCaJy7cWMyb0bpNpQ.png]

[101]Ground the Planes

  [102]Donald G. McNeil Jr.
  [1*r7Q7YVFd92cCS-9cXfMOGA.png?q=20]
  [1*r7Q7YVFd92cCS-9cXfMOGA.png?q=20] [1*r7Q7YVFd92cCS-9cXfMOGA.png]

[103]Why Can’t We Vaccinate Faster?

  [104]Donald G. McNeil Jr.
  [1*_L_N0oHEpjMZ3QUqundNag.jpeg?q=20]
  [1*_L_N0oHEpjMZ3QUqundNag.jpeg?q=20] [1*_L_N0oHEpjMZ3QUqundNag.jpeg]

[105]This Man Saw Aliens in Area 51

  [106]Hdogar in [107]Lessons from History
  [1*obdh43Hc8TjSALTxJ7A-qQ.jpeg?q=20]
  [1*obdh43Hc8TjSALTxJ7A-qQ.jpeg?q=20] [1*obdh43Hc8TjSALTxJ7A-qQ.jpeg]

[108]Viral Videos Get a Boost from Sharing Big

  [109]Texas McCombs in [110]Big Ideas
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  [1*PqB1tWm7QqoKz20CsFADzQ.png?q=20] [1*PqB1tWm7QqoKz20CsFADzQ.png]

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