[1]Matt Ridley

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5 reasons why the coronavirus nightmare may soon be over

* [156]Home >
* [157]Blog >
* [158]Why the coronavirus nightmare may soon be over

Published on: Saturday, 25 July, 2020
From vaccine triumphs to leadership learning curves, we can finally
dare to hope for a breakthrough

[159]My article for The Telegraph:

Like the ancient mariner, the virus refuses to leave us alone.
[160]Resurging in Blackburn, Spain, and America, it is still going to
be around here when the winter comes. As we head indoors, it will be
back for a dreaded second wave, disguised among a host of colds and
flus. Yet I am now optimistic that the nightmare will end this year or
at least by the spring. Here are five reasons.

First, vaccine trials were promising. Having proved safe and capable of
raising both a T-cell response and an antibody response, Oxford
University’s vaccine, developed in collaboration with Astrazeneca, is
now more likely to succeed than to fail, so long as its side effects
are manageable in the elderly. And behind it comes a stream of other
vaccines, some of which will surely work.

The second reason for hope is that, as [161]Oxford University’s
epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta has argued, herd immunity may be achieved
more easily than we first thought. Indeed, from the way that infections
have continued to dwindle despite lessening social distancing it seems
probable that herd immunity has already been achieved in London at
least. Half the population could be immune already because of recent
exposure to coronavirus colds, while children seem to resist catching
Covid-19, let alone passing it on. As the chief medical officer Chris
Whitty has conceded, the epidemic was already in retreat before
lockdown began. That is because the virus depends heavily on a few
superspreaders, and pre-lockdown measures we were taking in March are
remarkably effective: no handshakes, frequent hand washing, no large
gatherings and so on.

[162]newfbheader.png

So the third reason for optimism is that as long as we continue with
these measures then this virus will struggle to keep spreading in the
community. The one place where the virus did spread with horrible ease
was in care homes and hospitals. Why was this? [163]T-cell senescence
is an issue, so old people’s immune systems are just not as good at
coping with this kind of infection, and there were dreadful policy
mistakes made, like stopping testing people, clearing patients out of
hospitals to care homes without tests, and assuming no asymptomatic
transmission. Healthcare and care home staff were not properly
protected and were allowed to go from site to site. Many were infected
and became carriers.

The fourth cause for cheer is therefore that now we know about
[164]asymptomatic transmission, we have more protective equipment and
we have a better, if still imperfect, capacity to test, track and
isolate cases, it is likely that the hospital-acquired epidemic of the
spring will not be repeated.

My fifth excuse for being hopeful is that we now know better how to
treat people who get seriously ill. Ventilation is not necessarily the
answer, blood clotting is a real threat, making patients lie face down
is helpful, dexamethasone can save lives and some antiviral drugs are
showing promise.

These are reasons that even if a lot of people catch the virus this
winter, fewer will die. Colds and flu viruses usually peak in mid
winter when we are indoors. Viruses survive longer in colder and drier
conditions, and centrally heated air dries out our protective mucus
membranes. Covid-19 will certainly be hoping to peak then. But
Australia offers a glimmer of reassurance. It’s winter there now, and
this is proving to be the country’s weakest flu season on record. From
January to the end of June, 21,000 Australians were diagnosed with flu.
Last year more than 132,000 people were diagnosed in the same period.
Social distancing is presumably the main reason. If that is repeated
here, then not only will Covid have fewer flus and colds to hide
behind, but it too will struggle to mount a seasonal peak. And fewer
people will die from flu.

If we can beat this virus, then we can beat most respiratory ones. The
ridiculous way in which we tolerate cold-spreaders, mocking them for
taking a day off and praising them for trudging into work while feeling
miserable, has to stop. It should be socially unacceptable to go to a
party with a cold, let alone kiss the host on the cheek when you get
there. Our children’s permanently runny noses need not be inevitable.

Ten years from now, I predict that we will not only have defeated
Covid-19, but made colds rarer too.

Our bigger challenge this winter will be to tackle the backlog of
treating cancer and other medical problems delayed by Covid. And to
unleash economic growth to help those who lost their jobs.

To stay updated, follow me on [165]Twitter
@mattwridley and [166]Facebook, or [167]subscribe to my new newsletter!

My new book [168]How Innovation Works is available now in the [169]US,
[170]Canada, and [171]UK.

[172]newfbheader.png
By: Matt Ridley | Tagged:
* [173]coronavirus

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