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How Covid-19 will change air travel as we know it
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Parked airliners during lockdown (Creidt: Getty Images)
By Ashley Nunes 10th July 2020
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pronunciation, sentiment and tone.
In 2001, air travel was dealt a massive blow by the 11 September
attacks, and the effects lasted years. But this was a ripple compared
to what Covid-19 will do.
I

In the heart of Australian outback lies Alice Springs. The town –
colloquially known as Alice – is the site of indigenous human presence
dating back nearly 30,000 years. More recently, however, a new (and
admittedly very different) type of settler has descended upon Alice.
Since April, four Airbus A380s have made their way to the small town.
The 500-plus-tonne behemoths belong to Singapore Airlines which, like
many other carriers, has grounded almost its entire fleet.

The reason is Covid-19. The spread of the novel coronavirus has caused
passenger demand to collapse, forcing airlines to park, rather than
fly, their planes. Alice offers conditions ideal to do just that. The
local airport has a runway long enough to land commercial airplanes and
the climate is dry, which means aircraft parts corrode far slower than
in the sweltering heat and humidity of South East Asia.

Slumps in travel demand aren’t new. Following the terrorist attacks of
11 September 2001, passenger enthusiasm towards flying also waned amid
security fears. This forced airlines – then, like now – to cancel
flights and puts planes into storage. The industry did recover.
[25]Passenger numbers for 2002 were 1.63 billion, only slightly lower
than the 1.66 billion who flew in 2001. But passenger numbers don’t
tell the whole story.

The 9/11 attacks also [26]forced airlines to trim costs through
furloughs, layoffs, and most notably, consolidation. Prior to the
attacks, the US airline market – the world’s most lucrative – was
largely [27]controlled by eight carriers. Today, its four. Following
the attacks, airlines also [28]became more cautious and shelved plans
for aggressive expansion. This led to fewer flights overall and for
passengers, [29]less space as planes got fuller.

Whether Covid-19 has a similar impact on the industry and how
passengers fare in the aftermath will depend on a few things.

You might also like:
* [30]Should we give up flying for the climate?
* [31]How flying seriously messes with your mind
* [32]The three things that could kill the pilotless airliner

The collapse in air travel demand has been driven largely by public
policy. As Covid-19 spread, governments worldwide chose – in the
interests of preserving public health – to ban entry to non-residents.
Some countries like India, Malaysia and South Africa stopped issuing
visitor visas. Others like the Australia, New Zealand and the United
States suspended visa-free travel reciprocity. The move not only ended
the plans of millions of travellers but also forced airlines to stop
serving once-lucrative markets. Flying empty planes around makes little
fiscal sense. Consequently, getting planes back in the air will require
an easing of government entry restrictions.
Some of Singapore Airlines' aircraft now sit at Alice Springs Airport
in Australia to prevent corrosion (Credit: Getty Images)

Some of Singapore Airlines' aircraft now sit at Alice Springs Airport
in Australia to prevent corrosion (Credit: Getty Images)

There are some signs this is happening. The South African government
recently announced efforts to reopen the country’s tourism sector. With
one exception. The move only applies to domestic travellers;
international tourists will have to wait a bit longer. Mmamoloko
Kubayi-Ngubane, South Africa’s minister for tourism, says: “The
decision to open the country’s external borders will be based on an
'assessment of scientific evidence… guided by (the government’s)
responsibility to protect the lives of South Africans'.”
Kubayi-Ngubane’s words reflect the delicate balance governments must
strike between delivering for citizens the economic benefits of tourism
while protecting those citizens against the public health risks of
Covid-19.

But there might be a way around these travel restrictions: “travel
bubbles”. Colloquially known as “coronavirus corridors” or “air
bridges”, the underlying idea is simple. Rather than banning visitors
outright (or relegating them to quarantine), some countries agree to
open their borders to one other while – in principle – keeping their
borders to all other countries closed. Signatory countries would
typically be ones where the coronavirus threat has been contained. This
minimises transmission risk for travelers within the bubble while
preventing the importation of new cases from outside.

When it comes to testing, accuracy is everything

The UK government recently moved to do just that. Starting 10 July,
passengers from over 50 countries will be allowed to enter England,
sans quarantine. In announcing the move, Prime Minister Boris Johnson
[33]said: “Instead of quarantining arrivals from the whole world, we
will only quarantine arrivals from those countries where the virus is
sadly not under control.” But the effectiveness of travel bubbles
depends in part on the goodwill of citizens. The success of the UK’s
travel bubble with France requires that visitors to the UK do not
travel to a high-risk country (say the United States, for example) and
then in short order, fly to England via France. How authorities prevent
this from happening remains unclear. The situation is particularly
precarious if there are no border controls between countries inside the
bubble, as is with the case with EU member states.

Another workaround involves having rapid testing infrastructure in
place. The move would allow authorities to screen passengers for the
virus and if needed, quarantine these individuals. Researchers at
Stanford University recently [34]launched a study to examine the
concept’s viability. The work – which is being conducted in
collaboration with the Taiwanese government – will test passengers for
signs of the virus on flights across the Pacific. According to the
study’s authors, “the goal of the experiment is to figure out the
earliest time we can release people if they get tested”. That matters
to countries who see air travel as key to jumpstarting the economy.
The pandemic has meant passenger numbers across the world have diwnled
to almost nothing (Credit: Getty Images)

The pandemic has meant passenger numbers across the world have diwnled
to almost nothing (Credit: Getty Images)

But when it comes to testing, accuracy is everything. Imagine sitting
near someone who tested negative for the virus but was actually
infected (and infectious) during the entire flight. The idea is not
entirely far-fetched. Studies suggest that one in three infected people
can [35]receive so-called “false negatives”. According to Maureen
Ferran, a professor in biology at the Rochester Institute of Technology
in New York, false negatives can occur when nasal swabs – used to
collect samples of the virus – aren’t [36]inserted deep enough into the
nose or don’t collect [37]enough of the virus sample. She says false
negatives are also possible “if a person is tested [38]too early or too
late during their infection and there isn’t a lot of virus in their
cells”.

A vaccine for Covid-19 would provide relief. Vaccines strengthen the
body’s natural defences, lowering the risk of infection and
transmission. This curbs the need for entry restrictions, travel
bubbles or virus tests altogether. But finding a vaccine isn’t easy.
Antidotes to some life-threatening illnesses like HIV and malaria have
remained elusive despite decades of research.

Service-cutting is about limiting so-called ‘touchpoints’: opportunities for
Covid-19 to spread via close physical proximity between flyers and crew

When vaccines have been found, the process has been painstakingly long.
The vaccine used to treat measles [39]took nearly a decade to develop
and hit the market 50 years after US healthcare providers starting
monitoring the disease. Even if a vaccine for Covid-19 is found, it
must be mass produced and distributed worldwide, which will take even
more time. For travelers, this means the pre-Covid-19 flying experience
isn’t likely to return anytime soon. So what can passengers expect in
the meantime?

Pre-Covid-19 flyers – particularly those sitting in the premium cabin –
were treated to all kinds of perks; amenity kits, noise-cancelling
headphones and pyjamas. Some airlines went even further, offering
passengers gourmet meals prepared by professional chefs [40]onboard.
Those days are over. Instead, flyers can expect pared down service with
few if any luxuries. Airlines are axing [41]inflight-magazines, pillows
and in some cases, even meals. Singapore Airlines – a carrier long
[42]admired for its customer service – suspended serving a trolley meal
service for flights within Asia. Passengers will instead be given a
snack bag with water and refreshments during boarding.

The reason isn’t so much cost (though airlines, already hemorrhaging
cash, are keen to make savings). Rather, service-cutting is about
limiting so-called “touchpoints”: opportunities for Covid-19 to spread
via close physical proximity between flyers and crew. Serving
passengers in cramped spaces requires considerable person-to-person
interaction. Airlines want to limit those interactions to stop the
virus from spreading.
Many airlines have already curtailed some services to reduce
person-to-person contact (Credit: Getty Images)

Many airlines have already curtailed some services to reduce
person-to-person contact (Credit: Getty Images)

Some carriers are taking virus containment efforts one step further by
requiring flyers to wear [43]masks and face shields on board. One such
airline is Qatar Airways. The airline’s chief, Akbar Al Baker says
these measures are needed [44]to “ensure the continued health and
wellbeing of […] passengers and cabin crew”.

Conventional wisdom suggests that when passenger demand drops, fares
follow. So with passenger numbers at record lows (as of April, Heathrow
[45]passenger numbers were down 97%), the quest for cheap tickets
should be much easier. But that’s not the whole story. Fares are also
influenced by the number of seats in the global market. With the
world’s passenger planes largely grounded (one estimate suggests nearly
[46]30% of the world’s 26,000 commercial jets are stuck on airport
tarmacs worldwide), there are far fewer seats to go around. This gives
airlines rather than passengers the upper hand when it comes to setting
fares.

Fare hikes in the short run aren’t likely, according to Severin
Borenstein. Borenstein – a professor at the University of California
Berkeley’s Haas School of Business – thinks that fares are more “likely
to remain quite moderate, because fuel costs are low and the airlines
are flying more capacity than demand can support”. However, he points
out that the absence of a Covid-19 vaccine could cause fares to
eventually rise albeit, “over multiple years”.

Fare hikes are also likely if some airlines go bankrupt. Bankruptcy
reduces the number of competitors in a market, which invariably drives
up price. The prospect of a major airline going out of business is
something [47]aeroplane manufacturer Boeing recently warned about.
Similar sentiments have been expressed by Emirates’ chief Tim Clark.

While ‘high density seating’ may save flyers cash, the concept is
antithetical to social distancing

And running an airline is pricy. Even small jets, like the single-aisle
Boeing 737, can cost upwards of £80m ($102m) apiece. Add to that fuel,
insurance and taxes and you’re talking about serious money. With annual
[48]expenses running into the billions, airlines need cash to survive –
lots of it. [49]Moving cargo around is one way to make money. Another
involves [50]partnering with banks to sell airline-branded credit
cards. Yet, the best way to generate cash remains filling passenger
cabins.

Maximising the so-called load factor is particularly important for
budget airlines who – despite incurring similar costs as their
full-service competitors – offer substantially lower fares. A one-way
ticket on Irish budget giant Ryanair averages [51]just €37
(£33.50/$42); you’d be hard pressed to [52]find fares that low on many
of Ryanair’s competitors.

Budget carriers offset lower fares by squeezing more passengers into
their cabins. Ryanair [53]packs 189 flyers onto its jets, 10% more than
flag-carriers who fly the same airplane. Yet while high-density seating
may save flyers cash, the concept is antithetical to social distancing.
And that’s a problem. When it comes to fighting Covid-19, the US
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [54]calls social distancing,
“one of the best tools we have to avoid being exposed to this virus and
slowing its spread locally and across the country and world”.
Airports were closed down completely for a few days after the 9/11
attacks – and the effects of the temporary shutdown were felt for years
(Credit: Getty Images)

Airports were closed down completely for a few days after the 9/11
attacks – and the effects of the temporary shutdown were felt for years
(Credit: Getty Images)

This sentiment is shared by some lawmakers, who now [55]mandate that
airlines fill no more than two-thirds of the passenger cabin.
Borenstein says limiting passenger capacity could disrupt the model of
budget carriers, “because they rely on higher density on the aircraft
and because those airlines tend to have weaker capitalisation, and
therefore be more exposed to demand drops in their finances”. No wonder
low-fare carriers have [56]panned the move.

Airbus chief executive, Guillaume Faury, has [57]called the Covid-19
pandemic, “the gravest crisis the aerospace industry has ever known”.
Similar sentiments have been expressed by the International Air
Transport Association. The trade group – which represents nearly 300
airlines – says the industry is “only at the very beginning of a
[58]long and difficult recovery” and there remains “tremendous
uncertainty about what impact a resurgence of new Covid-19 cases in key
markets could have”.

Put simply, the industry will recover, but when that happens air travel
is likely to look very unfamiliar.

* Ashley Nunes is a research fellow at Harvard Law School. His work
explores how innovation affects markets.

--

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