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  [87]News & Politics

Where's the Spike in COVID-19 Deaths?

  By [88]Matt Margolis Jul 07, 2020 4:45 PM EST
  Share Tweet [89]Email [90]Comments
  Share
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  [47ff2b84-73bf-4c9c-9569-938c6d335153-730x487.jpg] AP Photo/Mark
  Schiefelbein

  Just as soon as states started to reopen, a surge in coronavirus cases
  put the brakes on those plans. Talk about a second wave has
  conveniently reignited fears about the coronavirus right as the country
  is itching to get back to normal, or as close to normal as possible.

  But the media wants you to be afraid. They are counting on people to
  focus on the headlines and be ignorant of the data.

  What is the data telling us?

  The death count for COVID-19 has been declining long enough that if it
  continues, [91]COVID-19 will no longer be considered an epidemic by the
  CDC in a few weeks. Some have argued that the lag between cases and
  deaths is a moot point because of the lag between diagnoses and deaths.
  So, let’s take that into account.

  The spike in cases [92]appears to have started on June 14, 2020, which
  makes perfect sense because most people develop symptoms within two
  weeks of infection, and the George Floyd riots started at the end of
  May. Studies suggest that deaths from COVID-19 occur between 15 and 22
  days, with a median of 18.5, after becoming symptomatic.

  It’s reasonable to assume that most of the people who get tested do so
  because they’ve experienced symptoms. But even if only half of those
  who have tested positive during the recent spike of cases were
  symptomatic when they were tested, a spike in deaths [93]should have
  occurred by now because it’s been 23 days since the spike in cases
  started. But, as the charts below indicate, there hasn’t been a spike
  in deaths yet:

    It's been 23 days since [94]#coronavirus cases started to spike, but
    deaths continue to decline. The median days from onset of symptoms
    to death is 18.5. [95]pic.twitter.com/Vz6OhlMPRZ

    — Matt Margolis 🇺🇸 (@mattmargolis) [96]July 7, 2020

  How is it possible that there’s been no spike in deaths yet? As Dr.
  Anthony Fauci recently [97]acknowledged, “The overwhelming majority of
  people who are now getting infected are young people, like the people
  that you see in the clips in the paper or out in the crowds enjoying
  themselves.”

  And risk of death for young people is very, very, very small. The CDC’s
  [98]current best estimate puts the fatality rate for symptomatic
  coronavirus patients at .05 percent for people under fifty, and .2
  percent for those between 50 and 64 years of age. It’s only when you
  get to those 65 and older that the fatality rate for symptomatic
  coronavirus patients jumps to 1.3 percent.

  The lack of a spike in deaths at this point tells us a lot. It tells us
  schools could reopen, that bars and restaurants and pretty much
  everything else can too, as long as the vulnerable population (the
  elderly and the sick) are quarantined. Life can return to normal for
  most of us.

  _____

  Matt Margolis is the author of the new book [99]Airborne: How The
  Liberal Media Weaponized The Coronavirus Against Donald Trump, and the
  bestselling book [100]The Worst President in History: The Legacy of
  Barack Obama. You can follow Matt on Twitter [101]@MattMargolis


[102]Here’s How Much Downstate New York Is Skewing the United States’
Coronavirus Numbers

[103]The Coronavirus Timeline Liberals Don’t Want You To See

[104]STAGGERING: Nursing Home Residents Account for a Whopping 43.4% of
COVID-19 Deaths, Even Though They’re Less Than 1% of the U.S. Population


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