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  [30]Coronavirus

Here’s The Good COVID-19 News That’s Being Buried By The Press

  [31]I & I Editorial Board
  June 25, 2020
  [32]9 comments
  33,200 views
  The weekly average of COVID-19 deaths has been falling since late
  April.

  I&I Editorial

  Once again, the U.S. is undergoing a media-driven COVID-19 scare after
  a “spike” in infections. But as [33]we noted earlier this week, the
  number of cases depends on the amount of testing. The key gauge to
  watch is deaths. They’ve been falling since April, and there’s strong
  reason to believe they’re lower than the official count suggests.

  The dreaded Wuhan virus is no doubt a nasty bug, worthy of our
  vigilance and ongoing concern. That said, its virulence, as measured by
  the daily number of deaths, appears to be waning, as the chart with
  this piece, courtesy of the [34]COVID-19 Tracking Project of the
  Atlantic, clearly shows.

  The average number of daily COVID-19 deaths on a weekly basis has
  fallen from a peak of just over 2,000 to 700 or so. That’s a roughly
  65% decline. And it’s no fluke. The figure has been dropping steadily
  since April.

  Hold on. That last number for June 23 on the chart shows a huge jump.
  Should we be worried? Is this the much-dreaded surge some have been
  talking up?

  Apparently not. A big part of that one-time gain came from a revision
  by one state: Delaware.

  As Youyang Gu, an MIT data scientist who created the COVID
  19-projections.com site, [35]tweeted: “To put the increase in deaths in
  context, Delaware added 69 deaths today: ‘The revision came from
  identifying 67 deaths dating back to April.’ So if you take out those
  67 deaths, the week-over-week deaths have not changed.”

  Goldman Sachs’ state-level tracker [36]shows similar trends. The volume
  of coronavirus tests has risen 23% in the past two weeks, but positive
  results have increased just 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%. Meanwhile,
  deaths have fallen over the past two weeks by 12%.

  This is bad news for those who, for a variety of reasons, seek to
  plunge us back into lockdowns and social isolation, despite the proven
  devastating economic impacts that would have. If COVID-19 deaths aren’t
  rising, and they aren’t, the rationale for shutdowns evaporates.

  But the rationale in the first place could be even weaker than first
  thought. The reason for this is that the deaths now attributed to
  COVID-19 might be grossly exaggerated. The evidence is substantial, and
  has been obvious for weeks. ([37]We first wrote about in late May.)

  Dr. Deborah Birx, the respected physician who heads the Trump
  administration’s coronavirus team, reportedly argued back in May at a
  closed Centers for Disease Control meeting that the agency’s death
  estimates were 25% too high, according to a [38]Washington Post report.

  Anecdotal evidence at the state level suggests this is true. In fact,
  estimates may be off by more than 25%.

  A [39]review of Minnesota deaths through late May, for instance, found
  that of 741 registered COVID-19 deaths, fewer than 41% listed it as a
  “primary cause.” By that standard, George Floyd, who died in police
  custody and tested positive for the Wuhan coronavirus, could have been
  counted as a COVID-19 fatality had his death not been so well
  publicized.

  How could this happen?

  In most U.S. jurisdictions, unlike many other countries, if someone
  dies with COVID-19, that becomes the cause of death for official
  purposes. That’s true even if it didn’t technically “cause” the
  person’s death.

  But sometimes even not being infected counts. After New York reported
  its 10,000 fatalities in May, the [40]New York Times revealed that
  “3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the
  coronavirus … had never tested positive.”

  In California, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond investigated 194
  COVID-19 deaths through mid-May and found that only six could be
  clearly claimed as caused by COVID-19. “We’ve unfortunately had six
  pure, solely coronavirus deaths — six out of 3.3 million people,”
  [41]said Desmond.

  Washington state reported that at least five of its then 828 COVID-19
  deaths were actually due to gunshot wounds. Pennsylvania had to remove
  “hundreds of deaths” from its tally for misreporting the actual causes.

  Same thing in Colorado, where a man found dead in a park with a
  [42]0.55% alcohol blood level was declared a COVID-19 victim.

  Colorado has since changed how it counts fatalities, as have many other
  states. But the fact remains: The death totals are almost certainly
  grossly exaggerated due to intentional miscounting. There are strong
  incentives to over-report, but few to under-report.

  The Centers for Disease Control admits as much in its June 24
  [43]update of the data:

  “For 7% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For
  deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average,
  there were 2.5 additional conditions or causes per death.”

  So in only one in 14 deaths out of the current total of 125,000 can
  COVID-19 be said to be the actual cause.

  A recent column by economist John Lott Jr. and Dr. Timothy Craig Allen,
  governor of the College of American Pathologists, describes how
  physicians are pushed to make COVID-19 diagnoses for powerful economic
  reasons.

  “Some doctors [44]feel pressure from hospitals to list deaths as due to
  the coronavirus, even when they don’t believe that is the case, ‘to
  make it look a little bit worse than it is.,'” Lott and Allen wrote.
  “There are financial incentives that might make a difference for
  hospitals and doctors. The CARES Act adds a [45]20% premium for
  COVID-19 Medicare patients.”

  Yet, even with an overcount, the number of COVID-19 deaths is falling
  sharply. As President Donald Trump tweeted on Tuesday, “Cases up only
  because of our big number testing. Mortality rate way down!!!”

  Even the normally anti-Trump “fact-checker” Politifact was forced to
  begrudgingly admit that Trump’s statement is accurate “for now.”

  “The number of coronavirus deaths per day has continued to fall in June
  even as the number of cases has risen,” [46]PolitiFact said.

  We bring all this up again to remind you: While this Wuhan bug is
  dangerous, it is likely not as deadly as advertised. The [47]CDC’s own
  estimate for what’s called the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), made
  early this month, is about 0.26%. The regular flu, by comparison, has
  an IFR of about 0.1%. So using the government’s own likely inflated
  COVID-19 death data, the IFR for the Chinese-origin virus is about that
  of a very bad seasonal flu — and not the 3.4% first estimated.

  Subtract the impact of horrendous policy errors in New York, where Gov.
  Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio [48]caused
  thousands of nursing home residents to die needlessly, and fatality
  rates shrink even further.

  With COVID-19 infections indeed going up due to more testing, we’ll
  soon be hearing the same strident voices yelling for a shutdown. But
  the death rates once used to scare us into an extreme reaction now
  appear even lower than they do after weeks of decline.

  Until our national “experts” can explain to us why we should take these
  bad numbers seriously, don’t be panicked by phony warnings about
  possible increases in deaths. Manipulated numbers should never be used
  to make sweeping public policy decisions. That’s especially true now,
  with the left looking for any way it can find to shut down the economy
  again and end Trump’s presidency.

  — Written by the[49] I&I Editorial Board.

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  [51]Coronavirus [52]COVID-19 [53]deaths [54]Featured [55]spike
  [56]testing

I & I Editorial Board

  The Issues and Insights Editorial Board has decades of experience in
  journalism, commentary and public policy.
  [57]View all posts

  [58]Coronavirus Cases Are Climbing Again. So What?

9 comments

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emphasize words. [59]Cancel reply

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  Mike DeDominic says:
      [62]June 25, 2020 at 7:43 am
      Is there anything new that the ‘Media’ wishes to mis-report?
      Loading...
      [63]Reply
    *
  what1name says:
      [64]June 25, 2020 at 8:08 am
      Don’t give the virus any ideas that it is weakening in its
      virulence. It will go back to the drawing board and become
      stronger. Shhhhhh. Let’s keep this a secret and not let the powers
      that hold the virus in its hands know that we know….Shhhhh
      Loading...
      [65]Reply
    *
  [66]Chris Anderson says:
      [67]June 25, 2020 at 9:43 am
      Unfortunately, it appears many people are not data people. Instead
      they are driven by emotion and therefore only read the headline and
      maybe a few paragraphs and then re-tweet or post the fear article
      to Facebook. It’s like telling a person who is afraid of flying
      that their odds of dying in a car crash are 1 in 114, while their
      odds of dying in a plane crash are 1 in 9,821. For another
      perspective, that’s 1 fatal accident per 16 million flights. Also,
      the vast majority of airplane-related deaths are from private
      planes, not commercial flights. It just doesn’t matter to them.
      I’ve been focused on data from the beginning of this pandemic and
      that’s why I’m not afraid of the virus. As stated above it has a
      current CDC IFR of 0.26%, and vastly lower than that for under 65s
      with no co-morbidities. However, I have always been worried about
      the lockdown and the long term consequences for my kids.
      Loading...
      [68]Reply
    *
  Richard Mcclellan says:
      [69]June 25, 2020 at 9:43 am
      So what is MSM trying to accomplish? Just clicks?
      Loading...
      [70]Reply
    *
  Jerrod Mason says:
      [71]June 25, 2020 at 9:46 am
      Are positive tests specific to COVID-19 or do they represent just
      any of the many Coronavirus strains that have been around for
      years?
      Loading...
      [72]Reply
         +
       Terry Jones says:
           [73]June 25, 2020 at 10:35 am
           There are specific tests for COVID-19. But there’s also the
           idea that high T-cell counts from previous coronavirus
           infections (remember, COVID-19 is just one of many
           coronaviruses) in some people might confer partial immunity.
           Loading...
           [74]Reply
    *
  C B C says:
      [75]June 25, 2020 at 10:04 am
      The CDC stats show that the ten year average for deaths from the
      seasonal flu is 40,000+ annually. Has any one seen a death total
      for seasonal flu for this year or are those causes of death just
      added to the COVID 19 numbers? If that is the case, it is another
      way in which they have inflated the COVID-19 stats.
      Loading...
      [76]Reply
    *
  Massimo says:
      [77]June 25, 2020 at 10:08 am
      Agreed that the death graph is not shown frequently by the press,
      and we know more than in the past what works and what doesn’t
      against covid complications, which has resulted in fewer deaths
      overall. However, don’t read in the current death trend the
      confirmation that the spike is simply due to more testing and
      asymptomatic patients. The death chart follows shifts in contagions
      after 3-4 weeks on average, so it is not surprising that the
      current surge in contagions has not yet resulted into more deaths.
      We see now more hospitalisations in ICU’s, which precedes by a
      couple of weeks increase in fatal outcomes. By the time you
      actually see more deaths, any measure you put in place to reduce
      contagions will take another 4 weeks before you see an effect, with
      deaths exponentially growing during this period, especially if ICU
      beds capacity becomes insufficient. The Inertia of these phenomena
      is what makes them so pernicious.
      Loading...
      [78]Reply
    *
  Peter Carroll says:
      [79]June 25, 2020 at 10:17 am
      This feels directionally correct to me. But if an IFR were to be
      estimated based only the 7% of ‘unique’ deaths-caused-by-CoVID-19
      then we would probably (I haven’t run the numbers) be looking at a
      rather large and unexplained ‘excess deaths’ number for the October
      2019 – June 2020 period. In the real world, some material fraction
      of the other 93% of ‘deaths with CoVID-19’ probably should be seen
      as ‘deaths from CoVID-19’, even if not all of them should.
      Then again, we (i.e. our ‘policy-makers’) should be trying to
      figure the relationship between the total cost of our CoVID-19
      response and the ‘lives saved’. And in this we should really be
      comparing the cost to quality-life-years-saved. Semi-hidden within
      those deaths classified as “due to CoVID-19”, and especially within
      the 93% where other factors were present, is the reality that many
      people at great risk of having their life foreshortened by CoVID-19
      have relatively short life expectancy and, to generalize, a lower
      typical quality of life too. (Don’t bother telling me this is harsh
      – – I know it is. But it’s true.)
      I’m guessing the cost per quality-year-of-life saved is massively
      above what the actuaries say that marginal value is ($140,000).
      Actually, I’m not totally guessing. I have tried estimating the
      real number and it comes out between 10 and 20 times that $140,000.
      Loading...
      [80]Reply
    *

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