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[30]Coronavirus
Here’s The Good COVID-19 News That’s Being Buried By The Press
[31]I & I Editorial Board
June 25, 2020
[32]9 comments
33,200 views
The weekly average of COVID-19 deaths has been falling since late
April.
I&I Editorial
Once again, the U.S. is undergoing a media-driven COVID-19 scare after
a “spike” in infections. But as [33]we noted earlier this week, the
number of cases depends on the amount of testing. The key gauge to
watch is deaths. They’ve been falling since April, and there’s strong
reason to believe they’re lower than the official count suggests.
The dreaded Wuhan virus is no doubt a nasty bug, worthy of our
vigilance and ongoing concern. That said, its virulence, as measured by
the daily number of deaths, appears to be waning, as the chart with
this piece, courtesy of the [34]COVID-19 Tracking Project of the
Atlantic, clearly shows.
The average number of daily COVID-19 deaths on a weekly basis has
fallen from a peak of just over 2,000 to 700 or so. That’s a roughly
65% decline. And it’s no fluke. The figure has been dropping steadily
since April.
Hold on. That last number for June 23 on the chart shows a huge jump.
Should we be worried? Is this the much-dreaded surge some have been
talking up?
Apparently not. A big part of that one-time gain came from a revision
by one state: Delaware.
As Youyang Gu, an MIT data scientist who created the COVID
19-projections.com site, [35]tweeted: “To put the increase in deaths in
context, Delaware added 69 deaths today: ‘The revision came from
identifying 67 deaths dating back to April.’ So if you take out those
67 deaths, the week-over-week deaths have not changed.”
Goldman Sachs’ state-level tracker [36]shows similar trends. The volume
of coronavirus tests has risen 23% in the past two weeks, but positive
results have increased just 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%. Meanwhile,
deaths have fallen over the past two weeks by 12%.
This is bad news for those who, for a variety of reasons, seek to
plunge us back into lockdowns and social isolation, despite the proven
devastating economic impacts that would have. If COVID-19 deaths aren’t
rising, and they aren’t, the rationale for shutdowns evaporates.
But the rationale in the first place could be even weaker than first
thought. The reason for this is that the deaths now attributed to
COVID-19 might be grossly exaggerated. The evidence is substantial, and
has been obvious for weeks. ([37]We first wrote about in late May.)
Dr. Deborah Birx, the respected physician who heads the Trump
administration’s coronavirus team, reportedly argued back in May at a
closed Centers for Disease Control meeting that the agency’s death
estimates were 25% too high, according to a [38]Washington Post report.
Anecdotal evidence at the state level suggests this is true. In fact,
estimates may be off by more than 25%.
A [39]review of Minnesota deaths through late May, for instance, found
that of 741 registered COVID-19 deaths, fewer than 41% listed it as a
“primary cause.” By that standard, George Floyd, who died in police
custody and tested positive for the Wuhan coronavirus, could have been
counted as a COVID-19 fatality had his death not been so well
publicized.
How could this happen?
In most U.S. jurisdictions, unlike many other countries, if someone
dies with COVID-19, that becomes the cause of death for official
purposes. That’s true even if it didn’t technically “cause” the
person’s death.
But sometimes even not being infected counts. After New York reported
its 10,000 fatalities in May, the [40]New York Times revealed that
“3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the
coronavirus … had never tested positive.”
In California, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond investigated 194
COVID-19 deaths through mid-May and found that only six could be
clearly claimed as caused by COVID-19. “We’ve unfortunately had six
pure, solely coronavirus deaths — six out of 3.3 million people,”
[41]said Desmond.
Washington state reported that at least five of its then 828 COVID-19
deaths were actually due to gunshot wounds. Pennsylvania had to remove
“hundreds of deaths” from its tally for misreporting the actual causes.
Same thing in Colorado, where a man found dead in a park with a
[42]0.55% alcohol blood level was declared a COVID-19 victim.
Colorado has since changed how it counts fatalities, as have many other
states. But the fact remains: The death totals are almost certainly
grossly exaggerated due to intentional miscounting. There are strong
incentives to over-report, but few to under-report.
The Centers for Disease Control admits as much in its June 24
[43]update of the data:
“For 7% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For
deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average,
there were 2.5 additional conditions or causes per death.”
So in only one in 14 deaths out of the current total of 125,000 can
COVID-19 be said to be the actual cause.
A recent column by economist John Lott Jr. and Dr. Timothy Craig Allen,
governor of the College of American Pathologists, describes how
physicians are pushed to make COVID-19 diagnoses for powerful economic
reasons.
“Some doctors [44]feel pressure from hospitals to list deaths as due to
the coronavirus, even when they don’t believe that is the case, ‘to
make it look a little bit worse than it is.,'” Lott and Allen wrote.
“There are financial incentives that might make a difference for
hospitals and doctors. The CARES Act adds a [45]20% premium for
COVID-19 Medicare patients.”
Yet, even with an overcount, the number of COVID-19 deaths is falling
sharply. As President Donald Trump tweeted on Tuesday, “Cases up only
because of our big number testing. Mortality rate way down!!!”
Even the normally anti-Trump “fact-checker” Politifact was forced to
begrudgingly admit that Trump’s statement is accurate “for now.”
“The number of coronavirus deaths per day has continued to fall in June
even as the number of cases has risen,” [46]PolitiFact said.
We bring all this up again to remind you: While this Wuhan bug is
dangerous, it is likely not as deadly as advertised. The [47]CDC’s own
estimate for what’s called the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), made
early this month, is about 0.26%. The regular flu, by comparison, has
an IFR of about 0.1%. So using the government’s own likely inflated
COVID-19 death data, the IFR for the Chinese-origin virus is about that
of a very bad seasonal flu — and not the 3.4% first estimated.
Subtract the impact of horrendous policy errors in New York, where Gov.
Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio [48]caused
thousands of nursing home residents to die needlessly, and fatality
rates shrink even further.
With COVID-19 infections indeed going up due to more testing, we’ll
soon be hearing the same strident voices yelling for a shutdown. But
the death rates once used to scare us into an extreme reaction now
appear even lower than they do after weeks of decline.
Until our national “experts” can explain to us why we should take these
bad numbers seriously, don’t be panicked by phony warnings about
possible increases in deaths. Manipulated numbers should never be used
to make sweeping public policy decisions. That’s especially true now,
with the left looking for any way it can find to shut down the economy
again and end Trump’s presidency.
— Written by the[49] I&I Editorial Board.
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[58]Coronavirus Cases Are Climbing Again. So What?
9 comments
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Mike DeDominic says:
[62]June 25, 2020 at 7:43 am
Is there anything new that the ‘Media’ wishes to mis-report?
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[63]Reply
*
what1name says:
[64]June 25, 2020 at 8:08 am
Don’t give the virus any ideas that it is weakening in its
virulence. It will go back to the drawing board and become
stronger. Shhhhhh. Let’s keep this a secret and not let the powers
that hold the virus in its hands know that we know….Shhhhh
Loading...
[65]Reply
*
[66]Chris Anderson says:
[67]June 25, 2020 at 9:43 am
Unfortunately, it appears many people are not data people. Instead
they are driven by emotion and therefore only read the headline and
maybe a few paragraphs and then re-tweet or post the fear article
to Facebook. It’s like telling a person who is afraid of flying
that their odds of dying in a car crash are 1 in 114, while their
odds of dying in a plane crash are 1 in 9,821. For another
perspective, that’s 1 fatal accident per 16 million flights. Also,
the vast majority of airplane-related deaths are from private
planes, not commercial flights. It just doesn’t matter to them.
I’ve been focused on data from the beginning of this pandemic and
that’s why I’m not afraid of the virus. As stated above it has a
current CDC IFR of 0.26%, and vastly lower than that for under 65s
with no co-morbidities. However, I have always been worried about
the lockdown and the long term consequences for my kids.
Loading...
[68]Reply
*
Richard Mcclellan says:
[69]June 25, 2020 at 9:43 am
So what is MSM trying to accomplish? Just clicks?
Loading...
[70]Reply
*
Jerrod Mason says:
[71]June 25, 2020 at 9:46 am
Are positive tests specific to COVID-19 or do they represent just
any of the many Coronavirus strains that have been around for
years?
Loading...
[72]Reply
+
Terry Jones says:
[73]June 25, 2020 at 10:35 am
There are specific tests for COVID-19. But there’s also the
idea that high T-cell counts from previous coronavirus
infections (remember, COVID-19 is just one of many
coronaviruses) in some people might confer partial immunity.
Loading...
[74]Reply
*
C B C says:
[75]June 25, 2020 at 10:04 am
The CDC stats show that the ten year average for deaths from the
seasonal flu is 40,000+ annually. Has any one seen a death total
for seasonal flu for this year or are those causes of death just
added to the COVID 19 numbers? If that is the case, it is another
way in which they have inflated the COVID-19 stats.
Loading...
[76]Reply
*
Massimo says:
[77]June 25, 2020 at 10:08 am
Agreed that the death graph is not shown frequently by the press,
and we know more than in the past what works and what doesn’t
against covid complications, which has resulted in fewer deaths
overall. However, don’t read in the current death trend the
confirmation that the spike is simply due to more testing and
asymptomatic patients. The death chart follows shifts in contagions
after 3-4 weeks on average, so it is not surprising that the
current surge in contagions has not yet resulted into more deaths.
We see now more hospitalisations in ICU’s, which precedes by a
couple of weeks increase in fatal outcomes. By the time you
actually see more deaths, any measure you put in place to reduce
contagions will take another 4 weeks before you see an effect, with
deaths exponentially growing during this period, especially if ICU
beds capacity becomes insufficient. The Inertia of these phenomena
is what makes them so pernicious.
Loading...
[78]Reply
*
Peter Carroll says:
[79]June 25, 2020 at 10:17 am
This feels directionally correct to me. But if an IFR were to be
estimated based only the 7% of ‘unique’ deaths-caused-by-CoVID-19
then we would probably (I haven’t run the numbers) be looking at a
rather large and unexplained ‘excess deaths’ number for the October
2019 – June 2020 period. In the real world, some material fraction
of the other 93% of ‘deaths with CoVID-19’ probably should be seen
as ‘deaths from CoVID-19’, even if not all of them should.
Then again, we (i.e. our ‘policy-makers’) should be trying to
figure the relationship between the total cost of our CoVID-19
response and the ‘lives saved’. And in this we should really be
comparing the cost to quality-life-years-saved. Semi-hidden within
those deaths classified as “due to CoVID-19”, and especially within
the 93% where other factors were present, is the reality that many
people at great risk of having their life foreshortened by CoVID-19
have relatively short life expectancy and, to generalize, a lower
typical quality of life too. (Don’t bother telling me this is harsh
– – I know it is. But it’s true.)
I’m guessing the cost per quality-year-of-life saved is massively
above what the actuaries say that marginal value is ($140,000).
Actually, I’m not totally guessing. I have tried estimating the
real number and it comes out between 10 and 20 times that $140,000.
Loading...
[80]Reply
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