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No, 68% of Americans Do Not Think a Vaccine is Needed Before Returning to
Normal Life

A misleading CNN headline set off a social media storm. Here’s what the data
actually says.

  Nicholas Grossman
  [12]Nicholas Grossman
  [13]Follow
  [14]May 12 · 4 min read
  (BUTTON)
  [1*NOBR1wgA_oTl-pd0J0tWyg.jpeg?q=20]
  [1*NOBR1wgA_oTl-pd0J0tWyg.jpeg?q=20] [1*NOBR1wgA_oTl-pd0J0tWyg.jpeg]
  Sens. Richard Burr (R) and Tim Kaine (L) displaying the actions
  Americans will do to resume normal activities, May 12, 2020 (Win
  McNamee/Getty Images)

  On May 11, CNN posted a [15]story to its website headlined “68% of
  Americans say a coronavirus vaccine is needed before returning to
  normal life, a new survey finds.” A subsequent [16]tweet from the
  official CNN account used identical phrasing. Various commentators
  reacted negatively, saying it showed [17]Americans are “spoiled,”
  calling it “[18]a fantasy,” raising [19]the possibility of “strife and
  conflict down the road,” and [20]noting that “Never is a perfectly
  likely timeline for a vaccine.”

  The term “normal life” is ambiguous. Does it mean a return to
  pre-coronavirus normal, with no masks in public, packed restaurants,
  and no worries about large indoor gatherings such as concerts,
  basketball games, and conferences? Does it mean the end of
  government-mandated lockdowns, which many states are easing already?
  Maybe it means something in between. The CNN article doesn’t say.

  Even worse, the data doesn’t match CNN’s headline or tweet, which is
  all many people will see in the age of social media.

  The article doesn’t link to any polls— never a good sign — but mentions
  “two Gallup surveys.” I searched [21]Gallup’s polling on coronavirus,
  and the survey questions are less ambiguous regarding “normal life,”
  with results that differ substantially from CNN’s claim.

  One question asks “how soon would you return to your normal day-to-day
  activities” if “there were no government restrictions,” giving four
  options. The most popular answer is “after the number of new cases
  declines significantly,” getting 40 percent in the most recent survey.
  The least popular answer is “after a coronavirus vaccine is developed.”
  Only 9 percent went with that.

  Nine percent, you may have noticed, is less than 68 percent.
  [1*RvRG_XgnRQCgsmlG-rWE6A.png?q=20]
  [1*RvRG_XgnRQCgsmlG-rWE6A.png?q=20] [1*RvRG_XgnRQCgsmlG-rWE6A.png]

  There’s another question that mentions vaccines, which is probably
  where CNN got the 68 percent figure: “How important are each of the
  following factors to you when thinking about your willingness to return
  to your normal activities?”

  For “the availability of a vaccine to prevent COVID-19,” 68 percent of
  respondents said very important. Another 17 percent said somewhat
  important, while 8 percent said not too important, and just 7 percent
  said not important at all.

  Well, sure. If there was a COVID vaccine, who wouldn’t return to their
  normal activities? But the question, unlike CNN’s article, doesn’t say
  anything about what’s “needed.”

  “Thinking about your willingness” is much less restrictive than
  “needed.” Of course people are thinking about it. That doesn’t mean
  they’re unwilling to resume normal activities without it.

  Gallup uses this question to ask about eleven things. Looking only at
  the percentage saying “very important,” three beat the vaccine’s 68
  percent: “Mandatory quarantine for anyone testing positive with
  COVID-19” (80 percent), “improved medical therapies to treat COVID-19”
  (77 percent), and “a significant reduction in the number of new cases
  or deaths” (73 percent).
  [1*u60oKGfVBGm6CsabfzvkMw.png?q=20]
  [1*u60oKGfVBGm6CsabfzvkMw.png?q=20] [1*u60oKGfVBGm6CsabfzvkMw.png]

  Respondents don’t have to pick just one of these factors, and clearly
  didn’t. More than 50 percent said that seven of the factors are very
  important, and if we add in somewhat important, all eleven factors
  clear 60 percent.

  Additionally, while “assurances from medical authorities that local
  hospitals have capacity to accept patients” has a lower very important
  score than a vaccine (59 percent v. 68 percent), it has a higher score
  when adding in somewhat important (89 percent v. 85 percent). And
  “widespread testing to identify and monitor coronavirus infections” is
  close (61 percent very important, 82 percent when adding in somewhat
  important).

  Claiming that this survey shows that “68% of Americans say a vaccine is
  needed before returning to normal life” is an egregious misreading of
  the data. Looking at the two Gallup questions that mention vaccines,
  the data shows that Americans are thinking about a lot of things, and
  primarily concerned about a decline in new cases.

  CNN should delete the tweet, fix the article, issue a correction, and
  be a lot more careful to accurately represent survey data in the
  future.
  [0*bpFbCNt1cQRjOpDh.png?q=20]
  [0*bpFbCNt1cQRjOpDh.png?q=20] [0*bpFbCNt1cQRjOpDh.png]

  Update: May 12, 8:30 pm EDT

  This post got a [22]lot [23]of [24]attention, and around 4:00 p.m.
  eastern, [25]CNN updated its article.

  The headline now says “68% of Americans say an available vaccine is
  very important before returning to normal life, new survey finds.” I
  don’t think that’s the best framing — because, as noted above, there
  were more popular answers — but it’s a significant improvement. Unlike
  the original headline, the new one accurately conveys something in the
  Gallup survey.

  Additionally, the CNN article now includes a note at the bottom saying
  it was “clarified to emphasize that respondents were rating the
  importance of each benchmark to their willingness to return to regular
  activities” — another improvement that addresses my criticism.

  A couple of hours later, CNN deleted the tweet with the headline that
  misrepresented the Gallup data. For the record, here’s a screenshot of
  the original:
  [1*H2l51qtwncMmTC8COhMukA.png?q=20]
  [1*H2l51qtwncMmTC8COhMukA.png?q=20] [1*H2l51qtwncMmTC8COhMukA.png]
  [26]

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  Nicholas Grossman

  Written by

[33]Nicholas Grossman

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Senior Editor at Arc Digital. Poli Sci prof (IR) at U. Illinois. Author of
“Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

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