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Covid-19 and Silicon Valley

[14]March 26, 2020 [15]matloff

Here is something you won’t read elsewhere: Silicon Valley leads the SF
Bay Area in Covid-19 cases — leads by FAR. As of today, Santa Clara
County has had 459 confirmed cases, and 17 deaths. That case total is
more than triple the next-highest, 143 in San Mateo County, which
adjoins Santa Clara County is also is the home to lots of high tech,
e.g. Oracle. (SM County has only one death so far.)

Silicon Valley, of course, is home to very large numbers of immigrant
engineers from China, who have the means to make frequent trips to
China to visit family, especially during Chinese New Year, when the
virus started to spread like mad within China and started to do so in
the US. Many also frequently travel to China on business, e.g. to
confer on manufacturing operations for US products. This is in contrast
to, say, San Francisco County, which has a large Chinese-American
population but who travel much less to China.

Mind you, the current crisis has had harmful fallout to many Chinese-
and other East-Asian Americans, who are experiencing abuse ranging from
mere suspicious looks to outright attacks. These started BEFORE Trump
started using the term “Chinese virus,” but he certainly isn’t helping
matters with his language. Trump wrote a tweet the other day in support
of Asian-Americans, and I hope that means he’ll use a more judicious
term from now on.

Nevertheless, the “Chinese connection” is there and is clear as day.
The Manhattan KS GOP official who [16]got into trouble for claiming the
city doesn’t have a pandemic problem because there aren’t many Chinese
people there may have been underestimating the power of the virus but
his statement did, as the Chinese say 有道理, i.e. have some truth to it.

To be sure, there is a REASON why I like living in the Bay Area rather
than Manhattan KS. (Kansas State University, so conceivably I could
move there). I treasure living in a region with a large Chinese
population and other types of diversity. But globalization is not free
of problems.

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13 thoughts on “Covid-19 and Silicon Valley”

1.
[20]Norm Matloff: Covid-19 and Silicon Valley – India Inc Blog says:
[21]March 26, 2020 at 4:13 am
[…] Covid-19 and Silicon Valley […]
[22]LikeLike
[23]Reply
2.
JRStern says:
[24]March 26, 2020 at 4:41 am
Norm, do you have any comments on the statistics, the epidemiology?
Thanks.
[25]LikeLike
[26]Reply
+
[27]matloff says:
[28]March 26, 2020 at 5:42 am
Yes. Two BIG problems: (a) Just far too many variables to
account for, esp. in the analyses comparing one region to
another. (b) The mathematical models are being extended beyond
their range of validity.
[29]LikeLiked by [30]1 person
[31]Reply
3.
drgenenelson says:
[32]March 26, 2020 at 5:49 am
Dear Norm: Thank you for your reporting. It helps to provide
context for a Los Angeles Times news story regarding the Kaiser
Hospital in San Jose with about half of its patients ill with
COVID-19.
Nearly half of all patients at one Kaiser hospital believed to have
Coronavirus
By RONG-GONG LIN IISTAFF WRITER
MARCH 25, 2020 1:33 PM
[33]https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-25/suspected-o
r-confirmed-coronavirus-patients-fill-up
Once I had a copy of the article, I immediately forwarded it to
each of the members of the San Luis Obispo County, California Board
of Supervisors. I’m also refreshing my knowledge of virology and
immunology. My suggested reading assignment is to read about the
1918-1920 influenza pandemic. Wikipedia is a good place to start.
We have challenging times ahead.
[34]LikeLiked by [35]1 person
[36]Reply
+
[37]matloff says:
[38]March 26, 2020 at 7:02 am
Thanks, Gene, had not seen that. I presume not many cases
around SLO?
[39]LikeLiked by [40]1 person
[41]Reply
o
drgenenelson says:
[42]March 26, 2020 at 7:23 am
Norm: Not yet. There will be as a consequence of
infective COVID-19 carriers being asymptomatic. Some
carriers will never show symptoms. If the population
becomes careless or indifferent regarding “physical
distancing” there will be replays of the scenes in Italy
where the morgues are being overwhelmed. :-(.
In NIH Director Francis Collins’s 03 March 2020
“Director’s Blog” entry, he projects it will be at least
a year until a COVID-19 vaccine is widely available. As
you will see, that is a “best case” scenario.
Structural Biology Points Way to Coronavirus Vaccine
Posted on March 3rd, 2020 by Dr. Francis Collins
[43]https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/03/03/structural-b
iology-points-way-to-coronavirus-vaccine/
Here’s a somewhat more technical article from 14 years
ago.
[44]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/
1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics
Jeffery K. Taubenberger * and David M. Morens†
Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Jan; 12(1): 15–22.
Abstract
“Curiouser and curiouser!” cried Alice
Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, 1865
An estimated one third of the world’s population (or ≈500
million persons) were infected and had clinically
apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 1918–1919 influenza
pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe.
Case-fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in
other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were
estimated at ≈50 million (5–7) and were arguably as high
as 100 million (7)……
[45]LikeLiked by [46]1 person
[47]Reply
4.
Netmouser says:
[48]March 26, 2020 at 12:36 pm
Norm, I wish you and your family well, living and working where you
do. I did move to PA last October as my retirement state. But in NJ
I visited Parsippany a couple of days each week. There is a large
Asian population living there, given all the big corporations in
north NJ. The town’s senior center was dominated by those with
Chinese heritage. I had to admire these seniors for their focus on
health. They socialized at the center, but also played pool and
ping pong (so popular there are multiple rooms for these), and held
frequent Tai Chi classes. Some non-Asians joined in. I attended a
senior fitness class there. So far, in NJ’s papers (I still
subscribe to two NJ e-papers in part to support the papers), I do
not see this town having any positive virus cases announced. And NJ
cases are beginning to soar being next to NYC.
Linda K.
[49]LikeLiked by [50]1 person
[51]Reply
+
[52]matloff says:
[53]March 28, 2020 at 8:06 pm
Thanks for the comments, some needed good news. However, I
think you missed this part of my post: “Silicon Valley, of
course, is home to very large numbers of immigrant engineers
from China, who have the means to make frequent trips to China
to visit family, especially during Chinese New Year, when the
virus started to spread like mad within China and started to
do so in the US. Many also frequently travel to China on
business, e.g. to confer on manufacturing operations for US
products. This is in contrast to, say, San Francisco County,
which has a large Chinese-American population but who travel
much less to China.”
[54]LikeLiked by [55]1 person
[56]Reply
5.
[57]amyinnh says:
[58]March 26, 2020 at 6:56 pm
Globalism. The elite get the gold mine, the rest of us get the
shaft.
[59]LikeLiked by [60]1 person
[61]Reply
6.
PabloCruise says:
[62]March 26, 2020 at 7:25 pm
Calling it the Wuhan Virus or Flu should not be a problem as that
is specific to the region of origin. So many viruses come out of
China, calling it the China Flu is confusing with other strains,
not to mention the offense Chinese people may feel.
That being said, I’m half-Spanish and never took offense to the
term “Spanish Flu”.
Still this epidemic demonstrates the need for secure borders. When
Trump said he was closing off travel from China in January it was a
wise move. The SJWs came out of the woodwork with the racist
accusations. But we’re seeing that other countries that did the
same, like Russia and Eastern Europe, are experiencing a very low
number of cases. It is just common sense.
[63]LikeLiked by [64]1 person
[65]Reply
7.
[66]FutureUser says:
[67]March 28, 2020 at 1:25 am
I’ve been watching the trends (not forecasts) at Worldometers, and
I wish they would break out the stats by state for the U.S. It’s
possible some states are peaking early due to local rules, but I
can’t tell from the charts. Would be nice to know who’s doing a
good job….
[68]LikeLike
[69]Reply
8.
Rob says:
[70]March 28, 2020 at 5:41 pm
Granted the Chinese penchants for a variety of wild life as food is
a cause, the Spanish flu supposedly started in the American
mid-west. Globalization has consequences. But we should respond as
one world to cope, mitigate the dangers and reap the benefits. The
pandemic illustrates the need for greater world cooperation. It’s
not the only universal danger we face: cue climate change,
over-population, pollution of the oceans, etc.
[71]LikeLike
[72]Reply
+
[73]matloff says:
[74]March 28, 2020 at 7:53 pm
Those who say definitively that the Spanish flue started in
Kansas tend to be the types that would love to say, “See,
America, you’re not so great either.” Maybe they’re right,
maybe they’re wrong. See
[75]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
[76]LikeLiked by [77]1 person
[78]Reply

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